Stochastic methods for studying models of infection and abundance. The outcomes of this project will have immense benefit to Australia. They impact upon two areas of national importance, namely ensuring an environmentally sustainable Australia, and safeguarding Australia. In particular, the project will provide models, methodology and optimal strategies for sustainable use of Australia's biodiversity, for protecting Australia from invasive diseases and pests, and for protecting Australia from te ....Stochastic methods for studying models of infection and abundance. The outcomes of this project will have immense benefit to Australia. They impact upon two areas of national importance, namely ensuring an environmentally sustainable Australia, and safeguarding Australia. In particular, the project will provide models, methodology and optimal strategies for sustainable use of Australia's biodiversity, for protecting Australia from invasive diseases and pests, and for protecting Australia from terrorism and crime. Special focus will be given to the control of invasive species, the control of emerging infections, and the optimal allocation of resources. The current risks posed by invasive diseases and pests, and the alarming rate of destruction of biodiversity, warrant urgent funding of this project.Read moreRead less
Modelling disease evolution and emergence. Approximately 75% of all emergent diseases have established in humans having switched from other species: Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV), Malaria, SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome), Ebola, West Nile Virus and many more. Further, cross species infections put our biodiversity and economy at risk: plant and animal diseases entering Australia can destroy crops and at-risk native species. This project will provide for the first time the statistica ....Modelling disease evolution and emergence. Approximately 75% of all emergent diseases have established in humans having switched from other species: Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV), Malaria, SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome), Ebola, West Nile Virus and many more. Further, cross species infections put our biodiversity and economy at risk: plant and animal diseases entering Australia can destroy crops and at-risk native species. This project will provide for the first time the statistical framework for scientists to assess risk of such diseases entering Australia as a key to combating them.Read moreRead less
Disease in endangered species: The importance of multiple-host infection and spatial structure. Pathogens are increasingly recognised as threats to endangered species. Managing such threats requires models to assess alternative strategies. Most current models deal with a single host and single pathogen, without spatial structure, although multiple-host pathogens pose the greatest conservation threats. This project develops a new generation of spatially-structured multiple-host models, and applie ....Disease in endangered species: The importance of multiple-host infection and spatial structure. Pathogens are increasingly recognised as threats to endangered species. Managing such threats requires models to assess alternative strategies. Most current models deal with a single host and single pathogen, without spatial structure, although multiple-host pathogens pose the greatest conservation threats. This project develops a new generation of spatially-structured multiple-host models, and applies them to two case studies. The first is the chytrid fungus that is thought to have lead to widespread declines and extinctions of frogs in Australia and overseas. The second is birdpox and malaria that have led to the extinction and endangerment of much of Hawaii's endemic avifauna.Read moreRead less
Managing Tasmanian devil populations affected by the Devil Facial Tumour Disease. This project aims to put the science behind management options for wild Tasmanian devil populations affected by the Devil Facial Tumour Disease (DFTD), a new emerging wildlife disease that is decimating devil populations across large parts of Tasmania. DFTD behaves atypically compared with well-studied wildlife disease models; this project may result in important breakthroughs in our understanding of wildlife disea ....Managing Tasmanian devil populations affected by the Devil Facial Tumour Disease. This project aims to put the science behind management options for wild Tasmanian devil populations affected by the Devil Facial Tumour Disease (DFTD), a new emerging wildlife disease that is decimating devil populations across large parts of Tasmania. DFTD behaves atypically compared with well-studied wildlife disease models; this project may result in important breakthroughs in our understanding of wildlife diseases. Conservation outcomes of the project may slow the spread of the disease and in aiding population recovery. Devils are an iconic species with economic benefits for ecotourism and livestock farms, industries which are based in economically depressed rural regions.Read moreRead less
Epidemiology of pathogens in wildlife populations: significance for conservation, human health and livestock. Recent research shows that pathogens may play a central role in wildlife population dynamics. Emergent disease problems in humans and livestock may result from reservoir infections in wildlife. However, methods to determine the impact of pathogens on populations, as distinct from individuals within populations, are poorly developed, as are models necessary to evaluate alternative control ....Epidemiology of pathogens in wildlife populations: significance for conservation, human health and livestock. Recent research shows that pathogens may play a central role in wildlife population dynamics. Emergent disease problems in humans and livestock may result from reservoir infections in wildlife. However, methods to determine the impact of pathogens on populations, as distinct from individuals within populations, are poorly developed, as are models necessary to evaluate alternative control strategies for pathogens, particularly where reservoir hosts are involved. This project will develop these methods using four case studies: chyridiomycosis in frogs, Hendra virus in bats, Newcastle disease in wild birds and arboviruses in kangaroos and other macropods.Read moreRead less