Nature futures: mapping pathways to prosperity for people and nature. Population growth, consumption and trade are direct socio-economic drivers of land use change and climate change, which determine where species can persist. The UN Sustainable Development Goals and national policies acknowledge the dependence of people on nature and the impact of socio-economic drivers on nature. However, few analyses of impacts on nature explicitly incorporate socio-economic drivers. Utilising a novel modelli ....Nature futures: mapping pathways to prosperity for people and nature. Population growth, consumption and trade are direct socio-economic drivers of land use change and climate change, which determine where species can persist. The UN Sustainable Development Goals and national policies acknowledge the dependence of people on nature and the impact of socio-economic drivers on nature. However, few analyses of impacts on nature explicitly incorporate socio-economic drivers. Utilising a novel modelling framework and high-performance computing we will integrate economic, land use and biodiversity models to evaluate: (i) policies and incentives for increasing national vegetation cover for carbon sequestration and habitat, and (ii) global risks to nature posed by land use change under future geopolitical scenarios.Read moreRead less
New methods for solving large models with rational expectations. This project aims to introduce innovative numerical methods to economic modelling to overcome computational barriers associated with the formation of expectations by households and investors. The outcome will be economic models that include sophisticated rational expectations specifications while retaining considerable industry, regional and occupational disaggregation. There will be benefits to economic policy by broadening the r ....New methods for solving large models with rational expectations. This project aims to introduce innovative numerical methods to economic modelling to overcome computational barriers associated with the formation of expectations by households and investors. The outcome will be economic models that include sophisticated rational expectations specifications while retaining considerable industry, regional and occupational disaggregation. There will be benefits to economic policy by broadening the range of questions that can be answered by detailed models and there will be benefits in the research community by providing a platform for examining dynamics in large-scale economic systems.Read moreRead less
Estimating the effects of fiscal policy. This project will develop highly flexible models for estimating the effects of fiscal policy, as well as providing insight into how economic assumptions affect these estimates and which assumptions are supported by historical experience. The models and estimates will be useful for researchers, policymakers and businesses.
Improved theory and practice in econometric modelling of nonlinear spatial time series. Modern Australia faces many challenges in economic and global climate changes, which require advanced statistical technologies in modeling and forecasting of econometric spatial time series data. This project will provide flexible models and methods that enable practitioners to more accurately measure and manage economic and climatic risks.
Understanding the sources of secular stagnation. This project aims to examine why long-run projections of output, inflation, and interest rates have become lower for many economies in recent years resulting in a phenomenon often referred to as secular stagnation. The project intends to develop new econometric tools to account for sources of structural breaks and stochastic trends in order to quantify the roles of productivity growth, financial shocks, demographics, and inflation expectations in ....Understanding the sources of secular stagnation. This project aims to examine why long-run projections of output, inflation, and interest rates have become lower for many economies in recent years resulting in a phenomenon often referred to as secular stagnation. The project intends to develop new econometric tools to account for sources of structural breaks and stochastic trends in order to quantify the roles of productivity growth, financial shocks, demographics, and inflation expectations in driving secular stagnation. Expected outcomes include findings that will help guide macroeconomic policy responses to stagnation and new econometric tools that will support future applied research on changes in the behaviour of macroeconomic variables.Read moreRead less
New methods for modelling complex trends in climate and energy time series. The project aims to contribute to Australian and international efforts on emission control by advancing the methods for quantifying the relationships between energy production, emission and climate, and assessing the real and financial risks associated with changing the ways in which economies produce and use energy. The project is interdisciplinary and expects to develop new knowledge in the areas of energy and climate ....New methods for modelling complex trends in climate and energy time series. The project aims to contribute to Australian and international efforts on emission control by advancing the methods for quantifying the relationships between energy production, emission and climate, and assessing the real and financial risks associated with changing the ways in which economies produce and use energy. The project is interdisciplinary and expects to develop new knowledge in the areas of energy and climate econometrics. The anticipated outcomes of this project are new methods for modelling variables with complex trends, and an innovative data-driven approach for learning from policy experiences of other countries. This should provide significant benefits by enabling evidence-based policy making in the era of climate change. Read moreRead less
Incorporating the gains from healthy ageing in health system planning. This project aims to develop evidence-based fit-for-purpose economic models for planning future capacity for public health programmes by developing new methodological approaches incorporating dynamic changes in health and health risks over time. The project expects to generate new knowledge on the impact of improvements in physical and mental well-being on funding and capacity requirements for public programmes to meet tomorr ....Incorporating the gains from healthy ageing in health system planning. This project aims to develop evidence-based fit-for-purpose economic models for planning future capacity for public health programmes by developing new methodological approaches incorporating dynamic changes in health and health risks over time. The project expects to generate new knowledge on the impact of improvements in physical and mental well-being on funding and capacity requirements for public programmes to meet tomorrow’s needs for care instead of projecting yesterday’s use of care. Expected outcomes include new economic models responsive to changes in population characteristics, conditions and contexts. The proposed research should provide significant benefits through improving efficiency of public investments in health.Read moreRead less
Predicting the ecological and economic outcomes of trade. This project aims to understand and predict the effects of global trade on land use and biodiversity.Growth in international trade increases trade-mediated land-use by increasing demand for commodities directly or indirectly derived from the land. Accurate predictions of trade effects and opportunities would allow governments to maximise ecological and economic benefits and minimise effects through judicious planning and regulation, but s ....Predicting the ecological and economic outcomes of trade. This project aims to understand and predict the effects of global trade on land use and biodiversity.Growth in international trade increases trade-mediated land-use by increasing demand for commodities directly or indirectly derived from the land. Accurate predictions of trade effects and opportunities would allow governments to maximise ecological and economic benefits and minimise effects through judicious planning and regulation, but such analyses do not exist. This project expects to advance trade policy evaluation by improving and integrating computable global equilibrium models and land-use and ecological models to better characterise consequences of trade.Read moreRead less
Economic impact and policy implications of assisted reproductive technologies in Australia. Assisted reproductive technology (ART) is now a large scale economic activity in Australia, provided almost exclusively by private clinics. The outcome of ART programs, involving the birth of one in 30 children, has a profound effect on the health of the nation. Policy and funding frameworks influence how ART is practiced and the subsequent health outcomes of ART children, yet there is a lack of evidence ....Economic impact and policy implications of assisted reproductive technologies in Australia. Assisted reproductive technology (ART) is now a large scale economic activity in Australia, provided almost exclusively by private clinics. The outcome of ART programs, involving the birth of one in 30 children, has a profound effect on the health of the nation. Policy and funding frameworks influence how ART is practiced and the subsequent health outcomes of ART children, yet there is a lack of evidence to guide government and providers about effective, equitable and safe approaches to funding ART. This research will address that need, thereby fostering a healthy start to life and preventative healthcare; supporting the National Research Priority, promoting and maintaining good health, for ART children, their families and the community.Read moreRead less
Financing aged care in Australia: Mitigating fiscal gaps and maintaining intergenerational equity. Aged care has been identified as a significant contributor to the growing fiscal problems predicted for Australian government finances during the next 10 to 20 years. This project will develop the cutting-edge modelling tools needed to allow Australia to make informed decisions about possible reforms in aged care financing. It will create significant national benefits by allowing detailed assessmen ....Financing aged care in Australia: Mitigating fiscal gaps and maintaining intergenerational equity. Aged care has been identified as a significant contributor to the growing fiscal problems predicted for Australian government finances during the next 10 to 20 years. This project will develop the cutting-edge modelling tools needed to allow Australia to make informed decisions about possible reforms in aged care financing. It will create significant national benefits by allowing detailed assessment of the distributional impact of a wide range of possible reforms, including how the outcomes of any policy change will affect disadvantaged sections of our society, whether different generations will be fairly treated, and the impact by gender.Read moreRead less