Estimating the effects of fiscal policy. This project will develop highly flexible models for estimating the effects of fiscal policy, as well as providing insight into how economic assumptions affect these estimates and which assumptions are supported by historical experience. The models and estimates will be useful for researchers, policymakers and businesses.
Understanding the sources of secular stagnation. This project aims to examine why long-run projections of output, inflation, and interest rates have become lower for many economies in recent years resulting in a phenomenon often referred to as secular stagnation. The project intends to develop new econometric tools to account for sources of structural breaks and stochastic trends in order to quantify the roles of productivity growth, financial shocks, demographics, and inflation expectations in ....Understanding the sources of secular stagnation. This project aims to examine why long-run projections of output, inflation, and interest rates have become lower for many economies in recent years resulting in a phenomenon often referred to as secular stagnation. The project intends to develop new econometric tools to account for sources of structural breaks and stochastic trends in order to quantify the roles of productivity growth, financial shocks, demographics, and inflation expectations in driving secular stagnation. Expected outcomes include findings that will help guide macroeconomic policy responses to stagnation and new econometric tools that will support future applied research on changes in the behaviour of macroeconomic variables.Read moreRead less
Analysis of Fiscal Policy Responses to Macroeconomic Conditions in Australia and the US using Real Time Data. This project investigates the evolution of Australian and US fiscal policy responses to macroeconomic conditions and examines the implications for future levels of public debt. A real time database of fiscal indicators will be constructed to capture information available to policymakers when making decisions. Econometric analysis of the data will involve a flexible approach that captures ....Analysis of Fiscal Policy Responses to Macroeconomic Conditions in Australia and the US using Real Time Data. This project investigates the evolution of Australian and US fiscal policy responses to macroeconomic conditions and examines the implications for future levels of public debt. A real time database of fiscal indicators will be constructed to capture information available to policymakers when making decisions. Econometric analysis of the data will involve a flexible approach that captures how policy has changed in its focus on economic stabilisation and fiscal sustainability. The analysis also allows for forecasts of public debt that take into account the interaction between policy and the economy. The results and methods will be useful in evaluating the stance of fiscal policy and its implications for the sustainability of public debt.Read moreRead less
Massively parallel algorithms for Bayesian inference and decision making. This project uses the graphical processing units of desktop computers, originally developed for games and video, to enhance substantially the quantitative tools used on a daily basis by economists. It will develop procedures and software to enhance the reliability of economic predictions and policy.
Pooling econometric models for prediction and decision making. The project develops methods for combining econometric models with the goal of improving prediction. It applies these methods to macroeconomic models used to improve monetary policy and to asset return models used to improve financial risk management.
Australian housing market risks: Simulation, modelling and analysis. This project aims to determine whether the Australian housing market is at risk of a collapse. This project aims to model the systemic risks in this market using an agent-based simulation at the individual household and financial decision-maker levels. This will be achieved by combining simulation software with datasets from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, Census data and mortgage markets into a behavioural model of financ ....Australian housing market risks: Simulation, modelling and analysis. This project aims to determine whether the Australian housing market is at risk of a collapse. This project aims to model the systemic risks in this market using an agent-based simulation at the individual household and financial decision-maker levels. This will be achieved by combining simulation software with datasets from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, Census data and mortgage markets into a behavioural model of financial decisions. This is expected to provide an unprecedented ability to economically zoom in and out on different suburbs, cities and regions across Australia to predict, measure and mitigate systemic risks.Read moreRead less
Fiscal policy and unemployment in an open economy. This project aims to improve our understanding of the impact of commodity price changes. Over the past two decades, Australia has experienced unprecedented fluctuations in commodity prices. The fiscal position and potential of the economy depends on the extent to which commodity price changes are temporary or permanent. This project will uncover empirical regularities between commodity prices, unemployment across sectors and measures of fiscal p ....Fiscal policy and unemployment in an open economy. This project aims to improve our understanding of the impact of commodity price changes. Over the past two decades, Australia has experienced unprecedented fluctuations in commodity prices. The fiscal position and potential of the economy depends on the extent to which commodity price changes are temporary or permanent. This project will uncover empirical regularities between commodity prices, unemployment across sectors and measures of fiscal policy. The project will build structural models of unemployment which will be estimated and used to assess implications for unemployment and budget deficits of commodity price shocks and to study the optimal design of fiscal policy. The project will benefit the conduct of economic policy in Australia.Read moreRead less