Nature futures: mapping pathways to prosperity for people and nature. Population growth, consumption and trade are direct socio-economic drivers of land use change and climate change, which determine where species can persist. The UN Sustainable Development Goals and national policies acknowledge the dependence of people on nature and the impact of socio-economic drivers on nature. However, few analyses of impacts on nature explicitly incorporate socio-economic drivers. Utilising a novel modelli ....Nature futures: mapping pathways to prosperity for people and nature. Population growth, consumption and trade are direct socio-economic drivers of land use change and climate change, which determine where species can persist. The UN Sustainable Development Goals and national policies acknowledge the dependence of people on nature and the impact of socio-economic drivers on nature. However, few analyses of impacts on nature explicitly incorporate socio-economic drivers. Utilising a novel modelling framework and high-performance computing we will integrate economic, land use and biodiversity models to evaluate: (i) policies and incentives for increasing national vegetation cover for carbon sequestration and habitat, and (ii) global risks to nature posed by land use change under future geopolitical scenarios.Read moreRead less
New methods for solving large models with rational expectations. This project aims to introduce innovative numerical methods to economic modelling to overcome computational barriers associated with the formation of expectations by households and investors. The outcome will be economic models that include sophisticated rational expectations specifications while retaining considerable industry, regional and occupational disaggregation. There will be benefits to economic policy by broadening the r ....New methods for solving large models with rational expectations. This project aims to introduce innovative numerical methods to economic modelling to overcome computational barriers associated with the formation of expectations by households and investors. The outcome will be economic models that include sophisticated rational expectations specifications while retaining considerable industry, regional and occupational disaggregation. There will be benefits to economic policy by broadening the range of questions that can be answered by detailed models and there will be benefits in the research community by providing a platform for examining dynamics in large-scale economic systems.Read moreRead less
Estimating the effects of fiscal policy. This project will develop highly flexible models for estimating the effects of fiscal policy, as well as providing insight into how economic assumptions affect these estimates and which assumptions are supported by historical experience. The models and estimates will be useful for researchers, policymakers and businesses.
Understanding the sources of secular stagnation. This project aims to examine why long-run projections of output, inflation, and interest rates have become lower for many economies in recent years resulting in a phenomenon often referred to as secular stagnation. The project intends to develop new econometric tools to account for sources of structural breaks and stochastic trends in order to quantify the roles of productivity growth, financial shocks, demographics, and inflation expectations in ....Understanding the sources of secular stagnation. This project aims to examine why long-run projections of output, inflation, and interest rates have become lower for many economies in recent years resulting in a phenomenon often referred to as secular stagnation. The project intends to develop new econometric tools to account for sources of structural breaks and stochastic trends in order to quantify the roles of productivity growth, financial shocks, demographics, and inflation expectations in driving secular stagnation. Expected outcomes include findings that will help guide macroeconomic policy responses to stagnation and new econometric tools that will support future applied research on changes in the behaviour of macroeconomic variables.Read moreRead less
New methods for modelling complex trends in climate and energy time series. The project aims to contribute to Australian and international efforts on emission control by advancing the methods for quantifying the relationships between energy production, emission and climate, and assessing the real and financial risks associated with changing the ways in which economies produce and use energy. The project is interdisciplinary and expects to develop new knowledge in the areas of energy and climate ....New methods for modelling complex trends in climate and energy time series. The project aims to contribute to Australian and international efforts on emission control by advancing the methods for quantifying the relationships between energy production, emission and climate, and assessing the real and financial risks associated with changing the ways in which economies produce and use energy. The project is interdisciplinary and expects to develop new knowledge in the areas of energy and climate econometrics. The anticipated outcomes of this project are new methods for modelling variables with complex trends, and an innovative data-driven approach for learning from policy experiences of other countries. This should provide significant benefits by enabling evidence-based policy making in the era of climate change. Read moreRead less
Incorporating the gains from healthy ageing in health system planning. This project aims to develop evidence-based fit-for-purpose economic models for planning future capacity for public health programmes by developing new methodological approaches incorporating dynamic changes in health and health risks over time. The project expects to generate new knowledge on the impact of improvements in physical and mental well-being on funding and capacity requirements for public programmes to meet tomorr ....Incorporating the gains from healthy ageing in health system planning. This project aims to develop evidence-based fit-for-purpose economic models for planning future capacity for public health programmes by developing new methodological approaches incorporating dynamic changes in health and health risks over time. The project expects to generate new knowledge on the impact of improvements in physical and mental well-being on funding and capacity requirements for public programmes to meet tomorrow’s needs for care instead of projecting yesterday’s use of care. Expected outcomes include new economic models responsive to changes in population characteristics, conditions and contexts. The proposed research should provide significant benefits through improving efficiency of public investments in health.Read moreRead less
Predicting the ecological and economic outcomes of trade. This project aims to understand and predict the effects of global trade on land use and biodiversity.Growth in international trade increases trade-mediated land-use by increasing demand for commodities directly or indirectly derived from the land. Accurate predictions of trade effects and opportunities would allow governments to maximise ecological and economic benefits and minimise effects through judicious planning and regulation, but s ....Predicting the ecological and economic outcomes of trade. This project aims to understand and predict the effects of global trade on land use and biodiversity.Growth in international trade increases trade-mediated land-use by increasing demand for commodities directly or indirectly derived from the land. Accurate predictions of trade effects and opportunities would allow governments to maximise ecological and economic benefits and minimise effects through judicious planning and regulation, but such analyses do not exist. This project expects to advance trade policy evaluation by improving and integrating computable global equilibrium models and land-use and ecological models to better characterise consequences of trade.Read moreRead less
Macroeconomic Consequences of Macroprudential Policy. This project aims to investigate the macroeconomic consequences of macroprudential policies and to provide robust, empirically-based advice to policy-makers about how they should be conducted. The global financial crisis motivated many nations to introduce new policies – known as macroprudential policies – with the explicit goal of maintaining financial stability. Important components of the project include estimation of a multisector small o ....Macroeconomic Consequences of Macroprudential Policy. This project aims to investigate the macroeconomic consequences of macroprudential policies and to provide robust, empirically-based advice to policy-makers about how they should be conducted. The global financial crisis motivated many nations to introduce new policies – known as macroprudential policies – with the explicit goal of maintaining financial stability. Important components of the project include estimation of a multisector small open economy model with interactions between the financial sector and the rest of the macroeconomy and development of new methods to evaluate these policies. Assessing the sensitivity of the performance of macroprudential policies to variations in key dimensions of the model is another important aspect.Read moreRead less
Analysis of Fiscal Policy Responses to Macroeconomic Conditions in Australia and the US using Real Time Data. This project investigates the evolution of Australian and US fiscal policy responses to macroeconomic conditions and examines the implications for future levels of public debt. A real time database of fiscal indicators will be constructed to capture information available to policymakers when making decisions. Econometric analysis of the data will involve a flexible approach that captures ....Analysis of Fiscal Policy Responses to Macroeconomic Conditions in Australia and the US using Real Time Data. This project investigates the evolution of Australian and US fiscal policy responses to macroeconomic conditions and examines the implications for future levels of public debt. A real time database of fiscal indicators will be constructed to capture information available to policymakers when making decisions. Econometric analysis of the data will involve a flexible approach that captures how policy has changed in its focus on economic stabilisation and fiscal sustainability. The analysis also allows for forecasts of public debt that take into account the interaction between policy and the economy. The results and methods will be useful in evaluating the stance of fiscal policy and its implications for the sustainability of public debt.Read moreRead less
Loss-based Bayesian Prediction. This project proposes a new paradigm for prediction. Using state-of-the-art computational methods, the project aims to produce accurate, fit for purpose, predictions which, by design, reduce the loss incurred when the prediction is inaccurate. Theoretical validation of the new predictive method, without reliance on knowledge of the correct statistical model, is an expected outcome, as is an extensive numerical assessment of its performance in empirical settings. T ....Loss-based Bayesian Prediction. This project proposes a new paradigm for prediction. Using state-of-the-art computational methods, the project aims to produce accurate, fit for purpose, predictions which, by design, reduce the loss incurred when the prediction is inaccurate. Theoretical validation of the new predictive method, without reliance on knowledge of the correct statistical model, is an expected outcome, as is an extensive numerical assessment of its performance in empirical settings. The new paradigm should produce significant benefits for all fields in which the consequences of predictive inaccuracy are severe. Problems that lead to substantial economic, financial or environmental loss if predictions are incorrect will be given particular attention.Read moreRead less