Population Ageing and National Housing Demand in Australia. This project seeks to determine the likely impact of population ageing on the demand for housing in Australia. A seminal study for the U.S. predicted that the relative demand for, and therefore price of, housing will fall substantially in the next two or three decades due to population ageing. If this were to occur in Australia, it could have a significant impact on personal wealth, the national saving rate, employment and economic welf ....Population Ageing and National Housing Demand in Australia. This project seeks to determine the likely impact of population ageing on the demand for housing in Australia. A seminal study for the U.S. predicted that the relative demand for, and therefore price of, housing will fall substantially in the next two or three decades due to population ageing. If this were to occur in Australia, it could have a significant impact on personal wealth, the national saving rate, employment and economic welfare. This question will be addressed by extending two different types of models - an analytical model of optimal national saving and an econometric model of housing demand.Read moreRead less
Investigating the Concordance and Transmission of International Business Cycles. Business cycle recessions are costly. Apart from the economic cost, there is the devastating social and psychological impact of unemployment on individuals and families. The 1990/91 recession cost Australia somewhere between $25 and $30 billion in lost output and resulted in a half a million additional unemployed. Australia will certainly experience another recession and, given its openness to international influenc ....Investigating the Concordance and Transmission of International Business Cycles. Business cycle recessions are costly. Apart from the economic cost, there is the devastating social and psychological impact of unemployment on individuals and families. The 1990/91 recession cost Australia somewhere between $25 and $30 billion in lost output and resulted in a half a million additional unemployed. Australia will certainly experience another recession and, given its openness to international influences, it is likely that it will originate elsewhere in the world. In delivering a greater understanding of the interdependencies in international business cycles, the project will assist economic policymakers in their efforts to ameliorate Australia's next recession. Read moreRead less
Economy-wide consequences of regulation and privatisation policy regimes. The spread of regulation across the majority of the economy necessitates that regulatory policy and approaches account for affects on GDP, employment, innovation and the growth rate. This project will offer policy institutions, including the ACCC, the Productivity Commission and the Treasury, an analysis of these effects and develop new computer models suited to future use to explore economy-wide implications. This need ....Economy-wide consequences of regulation and privatisation policy regimes. The spread of regulation across the majority of the economy necessitates that regulatory policy and approaches account for affects on GDP, employment, innovation and the growth rate. This project will offer policy institutions, including the ACCC, the Productivity Commission and the Treasury, an analysis of these effects and develop new computer models suited to future use to explore economy-wide implications. This need arises even in sectoral regulatory agencies, however, most particularly where service industries, such as telecommunications, are dominated by one or a few firms whose performance has major effects on the costs and innovativeness of firms in other sectors.Read moreRead less
Assessing the impacts of proposed carbon trading and tax schemes on the Australian electricity industry and the overall economy. Currently, policymakers require a much clearer understanding of the impacts of different carbon abatement policies. Mounting evidence on global warming is making this an increasingly urgent priority. The proposed project is specifically concerned with using state of the art economic modelling approaches to give the best advice possible to policymakers in crafting an e ....Assessing the impacts of proposed carbon trading and tax schemes on the Australian electricity industry and the overall economy. Currently, policymakers require a much clearer understanding of the impacts of different carbon abatement policies. Mounting evidence on global warming is making this an increasingly urgent priority. The proposed project is specifically concerned with using state of the art economic modelling approaches to give the best advice possible to policymakers in crafting an environmentally sustainable set of economic policy instruments that can maintain our enviable standard of living well into the future. The findings of the project will be available before the new Kyoto negotiation round commences.Read moreRead less
Assessing the impacts of proposed carbon trading and tax schemes on the Australian electricity industry and the overall economy. Currently, policymakers require a much clearer understanding of the impacts of different carbon abatement policies. Mounting evidence on global warming is making this an increasingly urgent priority. The proposed project is specifically concerned with using state of the art economic modelling approaches to give the best advice possible to policymakers in crafting an e ....Assessing the impacts of proposed carbon trading and tax schemes on the Australian electricity industry and the overall economy. Currently, policymakers require a much clearer understanding of the impacts of different carbon abatement policies. Mounting evidence on global warming is making this an increasingly urgent priority. The proposed project is specifically concerned with using state of the art economic modelling approaches to give the best advice possible to policymakers in crafting an environmentally sustainable set of economic policy instruments that can maintain our enviable standard of living well into the future. The findings of the project will be available before the new Kyoto negotiation round commences.Read moreRead less
Evaluation of targeting rules for implementing monetary policy. Monetary policy plays a primary role in stabilising business cycle fluctuations and in mitigating the effects of large economic shocks. This research deals with key issues in the operation of monetary policy. Our econometric analysis will provide new evidence on the short term goals pursed by central banks and improve our understanding their trade-offs. One application of our results will be an improvement in the ability to measure ....Evaluation of targeting rules for implementing monetary policy. Monetary policy plays a primary role in stabilising business cycle fluctuations and in mitigating the effects of large economic shocks. This research deals with key issues in the operation of monetary policy. Our econometric analysis will provide new evidence on the short term goals pursed by central banks and improve our understanding their trade-offs. One application of our results will be an improvement in the ability to measure and evaluate the performance of central banks. Greater evidence on the objectives and constraints of central banks will increase public knowledge and understanding of monetary policy, leading to more effective policy. Read moreRead less
IMPROVING THE THEORETICAL COHERENCE OF DATA-DRIVEN VAR MODELS. The project seeks to improve the tradeoff between theoretical and empirical coherence that is often present in empirical macroeconomic models. Using existing Australian models the project examines appropriate means of imposing theoretical restrictions on empirically coherent Vector Autoregression (VAR) models. Building on work by the authors, an improved VAR model of the Australian economy will be developed. This model will be used t ....IMPROVING THE THEORETICAL COHERENCE OF DATA-DRIVEN VAR MODELS. The project seeks to improve the tradeoff between theoretical and empirical coherence that is often present in empirical macroeconomic models. Using existing Australian models the project examines appropriate means of imposing theoretical restrictions on empirically coherent Vector Autoregression (VAR) models. Building on work by the authors, an improved VAR model of the Australian economy will be developed. This model will be used to assess particularly the impact of asset prices on inflation and economic performance over the past two decades. Further attention will be paid to assessing the role of monetary policy in the Australian economy.Read moreRead less