Economic consequences for Australia of global demographic change. In addition to addressing the economic implications of declining fertility and mortality in Australia this study will analyse major changes in demographic behaviour in regions on which Australia's economic health depends and the consequent changes in the flow of migrants into Australia. A new mathematical model of global population change will be integrated into the standard GTAP-dynamic model of global economic performance to pr ....Economic consequences for Australia of global demographic change. In addition to addressing the economic implications of declining fertility and mortality in Australia this study will analyse major changes in demographic behaviour in regions on which Australia's economic health depends and the consequent changes in the flow of migrants into Australia. A new mathematical model of global population change will be integrated into the standard GTAP-dynamic model of global economic performance to provide a useful tool for future analysis of Australia's population and economic policies. The analysis will contribute to policy development and the models will be widely available to policy institutions for their use.Read moreRead less
State-contingent analysis of productivity, efficiency and innovation. Productivity growth is a fundamental precondition for sustainable improvements in living standards. The main drivers of productivity growth are technological innovation and improvements in the efficiency of resource use. Effective public policy in this area requires identification of these components. This project develops improved productivity measurement methods that are applicable in economic environments characterised b ....State-contingent analysis of productivity, efficiency and innovation. Productivity growth is a fundamental precondition for sustainable improvements in living standards. The main drivers of productivity growth are technological innovation and improvements in the efficiency of resource use. Effective public policy in this area requires identification of these components. This project develops improved productivity measurement methods that are applicable in economic environments characterised by production and/or demand uncertainty. The methods will be used to obtain improved estimates of rates of innovation and changes in the relative efficiency of selected Australian enterprises. The empirical results will inform National Competition Policy and the process of microeconomic reform.Read moreRead less
Novel econometric techniques for modelling and forecasting electricity prices and price volatility in Australia. Price volatility, particularly price spikes, are of special importance to electricity retailers who, because of retail price regulation, cannot pass them onto final customers and end up bearing the price risk. While state governments may enter into compensation deals with retailers, it is of great interest to both parties to understand why and when these price surges occur and, once t ....Novel econometric techniques for modelling and forecasting electricity prices and price volatility in Australia. Price volatility, particularly price spikes, are of special importance to electricity retailers who, because of retail price regulation, cannot pass them onto final customers and end up bearing the price risk. While state governments may enter into compensation deals with retailers, it is of great interest to both parties to understand why and when these price surges occur and, once they have occurred, how long they will last. A better understanding of the electricity price process will enable more sophisticated plans and strategies to be put in place to hedge against unfavourable, unexpected or extreme price events.Read moreRead less
International linkages between financial and real economy cycles. This project will develop empirical multivariate models of business cycles for different countries, and will study how they are linked via international financial markets. The significance of the project is that the models will integrate previous work done on financial-real economy links in single country settings, and it will explicitly study the effects of disequilibrium in international financial markets (such as overvaluation ....International linkages between financial and real economy cycles. This project will develop empirical multivariate models of business cycles for different countries, and will study how they are linked via international financial markets. The significance of the project is that the models will integrate previous work done on financial-real economy links in single country settings, and it will explicitly study the effects of disequilibrium in international financial markets (such as overvaluation of foreign currency) on individual economies. The project will determine the appropriate domestic monetary policy response to such shocks, and the potential for forecasting both the advent of such shocks and their impact on individual economies.Read moreRead less
New Approaches to the Analysis of Count Time Series. The focus of this proposal is on the analysis of data that enumerate events over time. Occurrences of such count data abound in economics and business, examples being observations on insurance claims, loan defaults and individual product demand. This project develops a suite of innovative methods for modelling and predicting event counts. The methods explicitly accommodate both the discreteness of the data and possible complexities in its evo ....New Approaches to the Analysis of Count Time Series. The focus of this proposal is on the analysis of data that enumerate events over time. Occurrences of such count data abound in economics and business, examples being observations on insurance claims, loan defaults and individual product demand. This project develops a suite of innovative methods for modelling and predicting event counts. The methods explicitly accommodate both the discreteness of the data and possible complexities in its evolution over time. In so doing, they enable both accurate inferences regarding the dynamic structure of the data to be drawn and accurate forecasts of future event counts to be produced.Read moreRead less
China's Exports and Growth and Major East Asia Summit Economies - Exploring Regional Impact and Policy Responses. The project benefits Australia's current long-term economic priorities and engagement with Asia in five ways. It provides: (1) collaborative research with East Asia Summit (EAS) networked experts on topics of mutual interest, (2) a new perspective on the effects of China on EAS4 trade and growth, (3) substantive improved findings on EAS4 economic and trade policy options, (4) signifi ....China's Exports and Growth and Major East Asia Summit Economies - Exploring Regional Impact and Policy Responses. The project benefits Australia's current long-term economic priorities and engagement with Asia in five ways. It provides: (1) collaborative research with East Asia Summit (EAS) networked experts on topics of mutual interest, (2) a new perspective on the effects of China on EAS4 trade and growth, (3) substantive improved findings on EAS4 economic and trade policy options, (4) significant inputs to analysis, debates and negotiations in the recently proposed EAS free trade agreement (FTA), and (5) useful applications to Australia's similar bilateral FTAs under negotiation (e.g., Australia-Korea and Japan FTAs).Read moreRead less
Understanding market mechanisms and determinants of transaction costs to achieve greater efficiency in Australian fixed-income markets. This project will provide information to policymakers and regulators, enabling the evolution of optimal fixed-income markets, with significant benefits for individuals and the national economy. These benefits will be both short-term (current wealth) and long-term (retirement saving). It will promote Australia as the leader in constructing optimal fixed-income ma ....Understanding market mechanisms and determinants of transaction costs to achieve greater efficiency in Australian fixed-income markets. This project will provide information to policymakers and regulators, enabling the evolution of optimal fixed-income markets, with significant benefits for individuals and the national economy. These benefits will be both short-term (current wealth) and long-term (retirement saving). It will promote Australia as the leader in constructing optimal fixed-income markets, which can be applied to similar markets around the world. Finally, training research students will develop research infrastructure in Australia, and contribute to produce a generation of specialists who will increase Australia's international standing in financial research and its ability to manage an increasingly complex economy.Read moreRead less
Increasing Globalisation and its Economic Implications. This project will focus on globalisation and its economic implications. We will: (a) propose definitions and measure of the ?degree of globalization", (b) examine its relationship with the degree of uncertainty facing an economy, (c) study the effects of globalisation and uncertainty on productivity growth, (d) examine the effects of uncertainty on the economy and (f) provide empirical applications for the Australian economy. Our project wi ....Increasing Globalisation and its Economic Implications. This project will focus on globalisation and its economic implications. We will: (a) propose definitions and measure of the ?degree of globalization", (b) examine its relationship with the degree of uncertainty facing an economy, (c) study the effects of globalisation and uncertainty on productivity growth, (d) examine the effects of uncertainty on the economy and (f) provide empirical applications for the Australian economy. Our project will provide an important, innovative and comprehensive examination of globalization and its economic effects. In addition to making novel theoretical and empirical contributions, it will also facilitate meaningful analyses of policy issues in Australia.Read moreRead less
Population Ageing and National Housing Demand in Australia. This project seeks to determine the likely impact of population ageing on the demand for housing in Australia. A seminal study for the U.S. predicted that the relative demand for, and therefore price of, housing will fall substantially in the next two or three decades due to population ageing. If this were to occur in Australia, it could have a significant impact on personal wealth, the national saving rate, employment and economic welf ....Population Ageing and National Housing Demand in Australia. This project seeks to determine the likely impact of population ageing on the demand for housing in Australia. A seminal study for the U.S. predicted that the relative demand for, and therefore price of, housing will fall substantially in the next two or three decades due to population ageing. If this were to occur in Australia, it could have a significant impact on personal wealth, the national saving rate, employment and economic welfare. This question will be addressed by extending two different types of models - an analytical model of optimal national saving and an econometric model of housing demand.Read moreRead less
Solving the water crisis in Australian cities and towns with options contracts between urban and rural water users. We will equip water resource managers with a powerful and effective tool for the allocation of water resources between rural and urban sectors. The importance of this bridge cannot be understated. To date urban centres have endured stringent water restrictions to manage dwindling urban suppliers, while ignoring the potential benefits of purchasing water from the irrigated agricul ....Solving the water crisis in Australian cities and towns with options contracts between urban and rural water users. We will equip water resource managers with a powerful and effective tool for the allocation of water resources between rural and urban sectors. The importance of this bridge cannot be understated. To date urban centres have endured stringent water restrictions to manage dwindling urban suppliers, while ignoring the potential benefits of purchasing water from the irrigated agriculture sector. Furthermore, rural communities have suffered hardship due to restricted agricultural production during times of drought. This research proposal represents an exciting solution to both problems and offers the tantalising prospect of water shortages in our capital cities and towns becoming distant memories.Read moreRead less