A cohort analysis of the demand for meat and the impact of food scares. Australia is the largest beef exporter in the world. In 1999, there were 22.7 million beef cattle, producing 2 million tonnes with a gross value of $4.4 million. To date, Australia has been unaffected by the growing number of major health scares currently plaguing many European and South American countries. Equivalent scares in Australia would be devastating and hence research into the impact of scares on the behaviour of co ....A cohort analysis of the demand for meat and the impact of food scares. Australia is the largest beef exporter in the world. In 1999, there were 22.7 million beef cattle, producing 2 million tonnes with a gross value of $4.4 million. To date, Australia has been unaffected by the growing number of major health scares currently plaguing many European and South American countries. Equivalent scares in Australia would be devastating and hence research into the impact of scares on the behaviour of consumers is of paramount importance. It is the purpose of this research project to quantify the effects of such health/product scares on the demand for meat.
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Nonlinear Panel Data Econometrics: Theory and Practice. This research addresses the ARC National Research Priorities Goal of 'An Environmentally Sustainable Australia', specifically 'Reducing and capturing emissions in transport and energy generation'. Avoiding, managing, and/or adapting to the climate change impacts is now the most pressing global environmental problem. This project will produce tangible and original insights into policy options for institutional adjustment to future climate ....Nonlinear Panel Data Econometrics: Theory and Practice. This research addresses the ARC National Research Priorities Goal of 'An Environmentally Sustainable Australia', specifically 'Reducing and capturing emissions in transport and energy generation'. Avoiding, managing, and/or adapting to the climate change impacts is now the most pressing global environmental problem. This project will produce tangible and original insights into policy options for institutional adjustment to future climate change in Australia; will provide insight into the scope for positive community behavioural change; and possible transformations in Australian social debate to maximise adaptive capacity. It will also strengthen and produce original conceptual approaches and research methods.Read moreRead less
Understanding and Modelling Weather Derivatives in Australia for the Purpose of their Accurate Pricing: a Statistical and Econometric Investigation. Australia suffers some of the most adverse and extreme weather globally. Its government and industries, especially agriculture and electricity, stand to benefit from improved understanding of weather derivatives and capability to price them accurately. Tailored to Australian weather scenarios, weather derivatives will be tools to manage local risk f ....Understanding and Modelling Weather Derivatives in Australia for the Purpose of their Accurate Pricing: a Statistical and Econometric Investigation. Australia suffers some of the most adverse and extreme weather globally. Its government and industries, especially agriculture and electricity, stand to benefit from improved understanding of weather derivatives and capability to price them accurately. Tailored to Australian weather scenarios, weather derivatives will be tools to manage local risk factors, and increase global competitiveness by hedging against competitors' good weather-related advantage. The US weather derivative market, capitalised at over US$7.5b, began just 7 years ago; there is no organised Australian market. This project's smart techniques for improving pricing accuracy will support the development and vigorous growth of a local market.Read moreRead less
Should rational individuals be optimistic? Theory, survey evidence, experimental evidence, and policy implications. This project will help Australian policy makers design better information-revelation policies and will elevate the skill level of Australian research in behavioural economics. Insights we generate about how best to manage the public's expectations will enable policy design that strengthens Australia's social and economic fabric. We will disseminate the recommendations we generate ....Should rational individuals be optimistic? Theory, survey evidence, experimental evidence, and policy implications. This project will help Australian policy makers design better information-revelation policies and will elevate the skill level of Australian research in behavioural economics. Insights we generate about how best to manage the public's expectations will enable policy design that strengthens Australia's social and economic fabric. We will disseminate the recommendations we generate in a policy workshop at the end of our project. In terms of benefits to the level of science in Australia, the project will work with local data and local researchers, and will import into Australia new experimental medical equipment and the knowledge of how to use it. These benefits will help Australia progress to the forefront of behavioural economic research.Read moreRead less
Identification and inference in nonparametric models. This project will develop reliable methods for identification, estimation and inference of nonparametric models for the evaluation of economic policies on outcome variables of interest. This econometric methodology will allow a better understanding of the quantitative effects of an economic policy which will result in better informed policy decisions. The results will have applications to labour market policies, health care policies and educa ....Identification and inference in nonparametric models. This project will develop reliable methods for identification, estimation and inference of nonparametric models for the evaluation of economic policies on outcome variables of interest. This econometric methodology will allow a better understanding of the quantitative effects of an economic policy which will result in better informed policy decisions. The results will have applications to labour market policies, health care policies and education policies among others. The project will also provide national benefits in terms of building up the local stock of researchers trained in the area of identification and estimation of nonparametric models; it will further improve the international reputation that Australia has in econometric theory.Read moreRead less
New approaches to the statistical modelling of financial risk: combining structural information with flexible, computationally-intensive non-parametric methods. The aims of this project are to provide a range of novel, rigorous, flexible, statistical methods to assess portfolio risk, with due attention to behaviour of its constituent components; to obtain greater understanding of the complexities of risk; and to give students research training in the nexus of statistics and finance. The anticip ....New approaches to the statistical modelling of financial risk: combining structural information with flexible, computationally-intensive non-parametric methods. The aims of this project are to provide a range of novel, rigorous, flexible, statistical methods to assess portfolio risk, with due attention to behaviour of its constituent components; to obtain greater understanding of the complexities of risk; and to give students research training in the nexus of statistics and finance. The anticipated outcomes of this project will be detailed knowledge of extremal behaviour in portfolios, improved methods for calibrating risk, advances in non-parametric methods in finance, a prototype practitioner toolkit for assessing risk, and high-calibre graduates to contribute to Australia's research capacity.Read moreRead less
Modelling Dynamic Correlations in the Volatility of Patents and Technical Change. National/community benefits include a clearer understanding of the relation between patents and industrial innovation, measuring the effects of patents on technical change, economic growth and job creation, and analysing their fluctuations over time. The project analyses the variability in technological innovations, measures the impact of innovations on total output and key factors of production, namely labour, cap ....Modelling Dynamic Correlations in the Volatility of Patents and Technical Change. National/community benefits include a clearer understanding of the relation between patents and industrial innovation, measuring the effects of patents on technical change, economic growth and job creation, and analysing their fluctuations over time. The project analyses the variability in technological innovations, measures the impact of innovations on total output and key factors of production, namely labour, capital, energy and materials, and emphasizes the usefulness of the results. Expected outcomes include changing current ideas regarding output generation, understanding broad issues underlying patents and their variability, advancing multi-disciplinary knowledge, using information intelligently and promoting a culture of innovation.Read moreRead less
Quantifying Country Credit Risk Ratings and Volatility, and Measuring the Impact of Fundamentals. National/community benefits include developing a superior quantifiable ratings method to the qualitative rankings produced by leading international country credit risk ratings agencies, measuring the impact of economic/financial fundamentals on risk ratings, and analysing their fluctuations across countries and risk categories over time. The project provides a solution to the major problems underlyi ....Quantifying Country Credit Risk Ratings and Volatility, and Measuring the Impact of Fundamentals. National/community benefits include developing a superior quantifiable ratings method to the qualitative rankings produced by leading international country credit risk ratings agencies, measuring the impact of economic/financial fundamentals on risk ratings, and analysing their fluctuations across countries and risk categories over time. The project provides a solution to the major problems underlying qualitative country risk ratings, namely the irregularity and infrequency of their measurement, and emphasizes the practicality of the results. Expected outcomes include a clearer understanding of how to quantify qualitative rankings and their fluctuations, using information intelligently, and promoting an innovation and knowledge culture.Read moreRead less
Managing the risk of price spikes, dependences and contagion effects in australian electricity markets. Australian electricity markets are more volatile and spike-prone than other comparable markets. Price spikes account for large parts of total price variation, and companies that are unprepared to manage these risks adequately face potentially substantial losses. The economic reality of price spikes in our interconnected electricity markets which are small and geographically isolated, unlike th ....Managing the risk of price spikes, dependences and contagion effects in australian electricity markets. Australian electricity markets are more volatile and spike-prone than other comparable markets. Price spikes account for large parts of total price variation, and companies that are unprepared to manage these risks adequately face potentially substantial losses. The economic reality of price spikes in our interconnected electricity markets which are small and geographically isolated, unlike the proximate markets of Europe and North America, emphasises the imperative of this Australian-focused research. Results will enable forecasting of extreme prices and enable market participants to manage better their risks, in Australia's unique electricity environment, and reduce chances of large losses or default.Read moreRead less
Measurement and Sources of Productivity Growth under Imperfect Competition. The relative growth performance of countries using net output will free comparisons from the contentious and differing adjustments made by many statistical agencies in an attempt to take account of quality change in capital goods. Thus, Australia will have a better understanding of its relative performance in terms of growth, and thus be better positioned to make informed policy decisions. In addition, whether producti ....Measurement and Sources of Productivity Growth under Imperfect Competition. The relative growth performance of countries using net output will free comparisons from the contentious and differing adjustments made by many statistical agencies in an attempt to take account of quality change in capital goods. Thus, Australia will have a better understanding of its relative performance in terms of growth, and thus be better positioned to make informed policy decisions. In addition, whether productivity growth is mainly driven by technical progress or returns to scale, and the size of monopolistic markups, has a large bearing on how we view the performance of an economy and its potential for future growth.Read moreRead less