Forecasting live fuel moisture content, the on/off switch for forest fire. Dry forest fuels are a precursor of large bushfires. This research aims to develop, for the first time, a model to reliably forecast the moisture content of live fuels (e.g. the foliage and fine branches of shrubs and trees). This will be achieved by combining (i) satellite-derived estimates of live fuel moisture content, (ii) forecasts of soil moisture, and (iii) plant physiological responses to soil dryness. Forecasts o ....Forecasting live fuel moisture content, the on/off switch for forest fire. Dry forest fuels are a precursor of large bushfires. This research aims to develop, for the first time, a model to reliably forecast the moisture content of live fuels (e.g. the foliage and fine branches of shrubs and trees). This will be achieved by combining (i) satellite-derived estimates of live fuel moisture content, (ii) forecasts of soil moisture, and (iii) plant physiological responses to soil dryness. Forecasts of live fuel moisture content will deliver an early warning system of the risk of bushfires. These forecasts will also facilitate improved planning of prescribed burns: if fuels are too dry there is a risk of burns escaping, conversely, if fuels are too wet there is a risk that burns will fail to meet objectives.Read moreRead less
Ecological forecasts of species response to fire, drought and heatwaves. This project will advance ecosystem forecasting by accounting for how legacy effects from extreme environmental events – prolonged droughts, floods, heatwaves and fires – persist into future years in vulnerable dryland ecosystems. As highly stressed environments are expected to leave increasingly large impacts on flora and fauna and exacerbate desertification, answers are urgently needed to understand and mitigate these imp ....Ecological forecasts of species response to fire, drought and heatwaves. This project will advance ecosystem forecasting by accounting for how legacy effects from extreme environmental events – prolonged droughts, floods, heatwaves and fires – persist into future years in vulnerable dryland ecosystems. As highly stressed environments are expected to leave increasingly large impacts on flora and fauna and exacerbate desertification, answers are urgently needed to understand and mitigate these impacts. This project will foster new appreciation of ecosystem features that build resilience to change, or that lead to collapse. Benefits include better forecasting tools to manage ecosystems at risk, improved security of biodiversity and food production in Australian rangelands, and training of early career researchers.Read moreRead less
Resolving the role of dryland flooding in the global carbon cycle. Aquatic sources of carbon dioxide and methane are globally significant, but unknown for flooded drylands. The aim of this project is to use an innovative combination of well-integrated methodologies to determine if flooded drylands release large amounts of carbon dioxide and methane. This project is significant because this release of carbon dioxide and methane has not previously been accounted for and may change the magnitude of ....Resolving the role of dryland flooding in the global carbon cycle. Aquatic sources of carbon dioxide and methane are globally significant, but unknown for flooded drylands. The aim of this project is to use an innovative combination of well-integrated methodologies to determine if flooded drylands release large amounts of carbon dioxide and methane. This project is significant because this release of carbon dioxide and methane has not previously been accounted for and may change the magnitude of the global terrestrial carbon dioxide sink and account of some of the planet’s missing sources of methane. The outcomes of this project will make a significant contribution to our understanding of the global carbon cycle and earth climate system, and inform future management of these systems.
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Managing complex networks in endangered grasslands to restore food webs. This project aims to quantify the impacts of native and non-native animal consumer removal by examining food webs in endangered grasslands. Grasslands are Australia’s largest biome yet land-use changes, livestock and invasive plants, have altered entire food webs, including the integrity of ecosystem services such as nutrient cycling. Measuring disrupted food webs in field experiments, then modelling the impacts of mammals ....Managing complex networks in endangered grasslands to restore food webs. This project aims to quantify the impacts of native and non-native animal consumer removal by examining food webs in endangered grasslands. Grasslands are Australia’s largest biome yet land-use changes, livestock and invasive plants, have altered entire food webs, including the integrity of ecosystem services such as nutrient cycling. Measuring disrupted food webs in field experiments, then modelling the impacts of mammals to invertebrates, will assist managers in making more effective decisions relating to ecosystem integrity. Understanding the consequences of biodiversity loss including implications for ecosystem resilience is crucial to Australia’s future food production, carbon sequestration and hydrological flows.Read moreRead less
Understanding population growth time lags in invasive species. This project will use data collected from wild animals, landholder surveys, and computer simulation models to understand why invasive chital deer (Axis axis) are suddenly increasing in number after many years of slow population growth. By combining multiple empirical datasets and developing new modelling techniques, we will generate a new method for understanding population trends in introduced species. The results of this study will ....Understanding population growth time lags in invasive species. This project will use data collected from wild animals, landholder surveys, and computer simulation models to understand why invasive chital deer (Axis axis) are suddenly increasing in number after many years of slow population growth. By combining multiple empirical datasets and developing new modelling techniques, we will generate a new method for understanding population trends in introduced species. The results of this study will allow Queensland Department of Agriculture and Fisheries and others to better predict invasive species growth rates, which will allow for better, and more cost effective control methods. Read moreRead less
The ecological impact of large carnivore restoration. This project aims to assess the ecological changes that have arisen due to the repatriation of estuarine crocodiles to Australian ecosystems. It is significant because the restoration provides a rare opportunity to empirically test changes in ecosystem processes under varying degrees of large carnivore predation pressure. Expected outcomes include improved understanding of the processes that govern the strength of predator-ecosystem interacti ....The ecological impact of large carnivore restoration. This project aims to assess the ecological changes that have arisen due to the repatriation of estuarine crocodiles to Australian ecosystems. It is significant because the restoration provides a rare opportunity to empirically test changes in ecosystem processes under varying degrees of large carnivore predation pressure. Expected outcomes include improved understanding of the processes that govern the strength of predator-ecosystem interactions and an ability to quantify the biomass, social structure, and behaviours of predators required to influence these processes. Benefits should include improvements in how the ecological role of large carnivores is measured, and when and where carnivore populations should be culled or conserved.Read moreRead less
Climate impacts on grass phenology, diversity and pollen exposure. This project investigates how climate change is altering the phenology, plant diversity, and airborne pollen exposure in Australia's highly productive dry grasslands. The project is expected to answer key questions on shifting grasslands and grass pollen relationships with grass phenology and diversity by merging satellite analysis of phenology with seasonal airborne pollen measures of grass concentrations and diversity. Expect ....Climate impacts on grass phenology, diversity and pollen exposure. This project investigates how climate change is altering the phenology, plant diversity, and airborne pollen exposure in Australia's highly productive dry grasslands. The project is expected to answer key questions on shifting grasslands and grass pollen relationships with grass phenology and diversity by merging satellite analysis of phenology with seasonal airborne pollen measures of grass concentrations and diversity. Expected outcomes of this project will be better management options to safeguard allergy sufferers and improved ecological and pollen forecasts under climate change and extreme events. This project should provide important public health benefits and disease mitigation strategies to Australia's urban and remote areas.
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Defining winning strategies in a changing Southern Ocean . The ecosystem of the Southern Ocean is extremely complex, and understanding its response to rapid climate change is challenging. The aim of the project is to use changes in the behaviour of marine predators to provide new measures of integrated changes in eastern Antarctic ecosystems throughout the winter. With novel combinations of electronic tagging, natural biogeochemical markers, and simulation modelling, the project expects to recon ....Defining winning strategies in a changing Southern Ocean . The ecosystem of the Southern Ocean is extremely complex, and understanding its response to rapid climate change is challenging. The aim of the project is to use changes in the behaviour of marine predators to provide new measures of integrated changes in eastern Antarctic ecosystems throughout the winter. With novel combinations of electronic tagging, natural biogeochemical markers, and simulation modelling, the project expects to reconstruct changes in animal behaviour in response to changes in the environment. The data is anticipated to explain ongoing large-scale shifts in Southern Ocean ecosystems, providing information needed to underpin future management and adaptation strategies.Read moreRead less
Ecosystem resilience of Shark Bay under changing ocean climate. This project aims to investigate the resilience of the Shark Bay World Heritage Site to projected climate change. This project will generate new knowledge for marine conservation through analyses of habitat loss on nutrient budgets and productivity in seagrass and microbialite ecosystems. Expected outcomes are an improved understanding of climate-driven shifts on ecosystem processes in Shark Bay, incorporating science-based evidence ....Ecosystem resilience of Shark Bay under changing ocean climate. This project aims to investigate the resilience of the Shark Bay World Heritage Site to projected climate change. This project will generate new knowledge for marine conservation through analyses of habitat loss on nutrient budgets and productivity in seagrass and microbialite ecosystems. Expected outcomes are an improved understanding of climate-driven shifts on ecosystem processes in Shark Bay, incorporating science-based evidence for better conservation and management. This will provide significant benefits by contributing to the future-proofing of Shark Bay’s World Heritage values to climate change, and more broadly by demonstrating the consequences of the continued tropicalisation of Australia’s coastline.Read moreRead less
Integrating climate adaptation into rainforest restoration plantings. This project aims to investigate the impact of within species adaptation to climate on restoratoin success in the Australian Wet Tropics. For a suite of six species of tropical tree frequently employed in rainforest restoration plantings in northeast Queensland, this project aims to test the hypothesis that collecting seed from populations in similar ecoclimatic settings to the planting site will result in superior seedling gr ....Integrating climate adaptation into rainforest restoration plantings. This project aims to investigate the impact of within species adaptation to climate on restoratoin success in the Australian Wet Tropics. For a suite of six species of tropical tree frequently employed in rainforest restoration plantings in northeast Queensland, this project aims to test the hypothesis that collecting seed from populations in similar ecoclimatic settings to the planting site will result in superior seedling growth and survival. The expected outcome is to provide practical advice to restoration practitioners about the importance of matching the provenance of seed source to planting sites, and opportunities for selecting provenances pre-adapted to predicted future climatic conditions at planting sites.Read moreRead less