A Unified Theory of 'If's. This project aims to develop a unified theory of ‘if’s. Our understanding of an uncertain and risky world requires hypothetical reasoning involving ‘if’s. They are significant theoretically: in science, history, politics, economics, psychology, computer science, linguistics, and philosophy. They are significant practically: in our planning, decision-making, policy priorities, legal judgments, environmental and medical interventions. Yet we lack a comprehensive, readily ....A Unified Theory of 'If's. This project aims to develop a unified theory of ‘if’s. Our understanding of an uncertain and risky world requires hypothetical reasoning involving ‘if’s. They are significant theoretically: in science, history, politics, economics, psychology, computer science, linguistics, and philosophy. They are significant practically: in our planning, decision-making, policy priorities, legal judgments, environmental and medical interventions. Yet we lack a comprehensive, readily implementable theory of ‘if’s. The project expects to provide such a theory, based on probability, improving on approaches from philosophy and linguistics, and benefitting both these fields. It also promises significant benefits for artificial intelligence/machine learning.
Read moreRead less
Making Better Decisions: An Investigation of Time-Biases. The aim of this project is to empirically and normatively evaluate two kinds of time-biases.
Using an interdisciplinary approach, this project will empirically investigate near-bias and future-bias in a unified manner, and use this data to inform theorising about the rationality of time-biased preferences. The project will yield a rich account of the conditions under which we display time-biases and the likely mechanisms that underlie th ....Making Better Decisions: An Investigation of Time-Biases. The aim of this project is to empirically and normatively evaluate two kinds of time-biases.
Using an interdisciplinary approach, this project will empirically investigate near-bias and future-bias in a unified manner, and use this data to inform theorising about the rationality of time-biased preferences. The project will yield a rich account of the conditions under which we display time-biases and the likely mechanisms that underlie them.
This project will determine whether, and when, time-biased preferences lead to sub-optimal outcomes, and lay the groundwork for determining which strategies mitigate these biases, leading to better decisions and outcomes.Read moreRead less