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Nature futures: mapping pathways to prosperity for people and nature. Population growth, consumption and trade are direct socio-economic drivers of land use change and climate change, which determine where species can persist. The UN Sustainable Development Goals and national policies acknowledge the dependence of people on nature and the impact of socio-economic drivers on nature. However, few analyses of impacts on nature explicitly incorporate socio-economic drivers. Utilising a novel modelli ....Nature futures: mapping pathways to prosperity for people and nature. Population growth, consumption and trade are direct socio-economic drivers of land use change and climate change, which determine where species can persist. The UN Sustainable Development Goals and national policies acknowledge the dependence of people on nature and the impact of socio-economic drivers on nature. However, few analyses of impacts on nature explicitly incorporate socio-economic drivers. Utilising a novel modelling framework and high-performance computing we will integrate economic, land use and biodiversity models to evaluate: (i) policies and incentives for increasing national vegetation cover for carbon sequestration and habitat, and (ii) global risks to nature posed by land use change under future geopolitical scenarios.Read moreRead less
Systematic planning beyond conservation: a multi-objective, multi action framework for sustainable biodiversity. When planning for conservation in rivers, protecting plants and animals can not simply be achieved by protecting parts of a river. This project will develop a strategy to sustain freshwater biodiversity that will optimally allocate conservation and restoration resources and minimises negative socioeconomic impacts on stakeholders.
Tipping points and early warning signals in complex ecosystems. This project aims to create a theory of early warning that uses spatial data available on system state, connectivity and environmental stress, and to create tools to infer the risk of ecosystem collapse. Many ecosystems have irreversible tipping points. Since their locations are often unknown, metrics may provide an early warning of collapse but are difficult to apply because they need long time series which are usually lacking. Thi ....Tipping points and early warning signals in complex ecosystems. This project aims to create a theory of early warning that uses spatial data available on system state, connectivity and environmental stress, and to create tools to infer the risk of ecosystem collapse. Many ecosystems have irreversible tipping points. Since their locations are often unknown, metrics may provide an early warning of collapse but are difficult to apply because they need long time series which are usually lacking. This project will use the Great Barrier Reef as a testbed because it has both long time series (standard approach) and rich spatial data (new approach), and exhibits early warning signs. We will use these tools to gauge whether symptoms on the Great Barrier Reef predict local collapse and to develop intervention plans.Read moreRead less
Long range toxic metal pollution in Australia and the Southern Ocean. This project aims to investigate how environmental change and human activities since industrialisation have impacted toxic metal transport and deposition on the south coast of Australia, Tasmania and Southern Ocean islands. This project expects to fill gaps in understanding of the global mercury cycle using a state-of-the-art multidisciplinary methodology including the role of sea salt aerosols and hemispheric-scale wind patte ....Long range toxic metal pollution in Australia and the Southern Ocean. This project aims to investigate how environmental change and human activities since industrialisation have impacted toxic metal transport and deposition on the south coast of Australia, Tasmania and Southern Ocean islands. This project expects to fill gaps in understanding of the global mercury cycle using a state-of-the-art multidisciplinary methodology including the role of sea salt aerosols and hemispheric-scale wind patterns . Anticipated outcomes involve a novel palaeo-atmospheric model that can be applied in other parts of the world. This should provide significant benefits, such as science-based evidence to ratify the Minamata Convention on Mercury and guide new regulations to reduce environmental/health risks from metal pollution.
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How are visual gene pathways lost and restored during reptile evolution? This project aims to investigate how complex traits are lost during evolution, and once lost if they can be regained. The project will use the diverse visual systems of snakes and lizards to shed light on the process of gene loss in degenerative lineages, and discover the mechanisms that compensate for gene losses in taxa with secondarily evolved visual capabilities- providing a case of evolutionary re-innovation in complex ....How are visual gene pathways lost and restored during reptile evolution? This project aims to investigate how complex traits are lost during evolution, and once lost if they can be regained. The project will use the diverse visual systems of snakes and lizards to shed light on the process of gene loss in degenerative lineages, and discover the mechanisms that compensate for gene losses in taxa with secondarily evolved visual capabilities- providing a case of evolutionary re-innovation in complex traits.Read moreRead less
Enhancing biodiversity and ecosystem services in production landscapes. This project aims to develop new approaches using causal inference, optimal allocation theory, and spatial statistics to characterise impacts on a diverse suite of ecosystem services. It will endeavour to develop case studies from three continents and generalisations explicitly tested using simulated landscapes. Environmental and agricultural policies promote land sharing (biodiversity-friendly production) or land sparing (p ....Enhancing biodiversity and ecosystem services in production landscapes. This project aims to develop new approaches using causal inference, optimal allocation theory, and spatial statistics to characterise impacts on a diverse suite of ecosystem services. It will endeavour to develop case studies from three continents and generalisations explicitly tested using simulated landscapes. Environmental and agricultural policies promote land sharing (biodiversity-friendly production) or land sparing (protected areas, with yield increases elsewhere). Yet the impacts of such policies in diverse contexts and for multiple outcomes are poorly understood. The project could advance our ability to deliver sustainable outcomes and more effective as well as equitable policies for production landscapes.Read moreRead less
How isolated is Antarctica? Assessing past and present plant colonisations. The project aims to assess how biologically isolated Antarctica is by discovering how, when and where natural colonisations of the continent have occurred. The research will focus on mosses, the dominant plant group in the Antarctic. genomic tools will be combined with environmental, spatial, and ecological data to assess mechanisms and directions of dispersal to and around Antarctica, and to predict areas most likely to ....How isolated is Antarctica? Assessing past and present plant colonisations. The project aims to assess how biologically isolated Antarctica is by discovering how, when and where natural colonisations of the continent have occurred. The research will focus on mosses, the dominant plant group in the Antarctic. genomic tools will be combined with environmental, spatial, and ecological data to assess mechanisms and directions of dispersal to and around Antarctica, and to predict areas most likely to be colonised in the future. This will help understand the processes underpinning the evolution and diversity of Antarctic species, and the vulnerability and adaptability of Antarctic ecosystems. Read moreRead less
Predicting the ecological and economic outcomes of trade. This project aims to understand and predict the effects of global trade on land use and biodiversity.Growth in international trade increases trade-mediated land-use by increasing demand for commodities directly or indirectly derived from the land. Accurate predictions of trade effects and opportunities would allow governments to maximise ecological and economic benefits and minimise effects through judicious planning and regulation, but s ....Predicting the ecological and economic outcomes of trade. This project aims to understand and predict the effects of global trade on land use and biodiversity.Growth in international trade increases trade-mediated land-use by increasing demand for commodities directly or indirectly derived from the land. Accurate predictions of trade effects and opportunities would allow governments to maximise ecological and economic benefits and minimise effects through judicious planning and regulation, but such analyses do not exist. This project expects to advance trade policy evaluation by improving and integrating computable global equilibrium models and land-use and ecological models to better characterise consequences of trade.Read moreRead less
Evolutionary history and conservation of an iconic Australian plant group. This project aims to strengthen biodiversity conservation using evolutionary biology. By using new DNA sequencing technologies the project aims to reconstruct the evolutionary history of the diverse and ecologically important plant family Proteaceae. This will be used to discover how past environmental changes have produced the biodiversity we see today, and forecast likely future changes to biodiversity under expected r ....Evolutionary history and conservation of an iconic Australian plant group. This project aims to strengthen biodiversity conservation using evolutionary biology. By using new DNA sequencing technologies the project aims to reconstruct the evolutionary history of the diverse and ecologically important plant family Proteaceae. This will be used to discover how past environmental changes have produced the biodiversity we see today, and forecast likely future changes to biodiversity under expected rapid environmental change. The key outcome will be a new methodology for a predictive, forward-looking conservation science that accounts explicitly for the dynamic, evolving nature of biodiversity. The key benefit will be a more robust scientific basis for strategic allocation of limited conservation resources.Read moreRead less
Forty million Australians: the future of our biodiversity. Many countries have experienced rapid increases in human numbers and natural-resource use. The project will use measured effects on biodiversity from such countries, combined with models of potential changes in Australia's population and climate, to forecast how our biodiversity may be affected up to 2050, and then to plan how to minimize negative impacts.