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Ecological forecasts of species response to fire, drought and heatwaves. This project will advance ecosystem forecasting by accounting for how legacy effects from extreme environmental events – prolonged droughts, floods, heatwaves and fires – persist into future years in vulnerable dryland ecosystems. As highly stressed environments are expected to leave increasingly large impacts on flora and fauna and exacerbate desertification, answers are urgently needed to understand and mitigate these imp ....Ecological forecasts of species response to fire, drought and heatwaves. This project will advance ecosystem forecasting by accounting for how legacy effects from extreme environmental events – prolonged droughts, floods, heatwaves and fires – persist into future years in vulnerable dryland ecosystems. As highly stressed environments are expected to leave increasingly large impacts on flora and fauna and exacerbate desertification, answers are urgently needed to understand and mitigate these impacts. This project will foster new appreciation of ecosystem features that build resilience to change, or that lead to collapse. Benefits include better forecasting tools to manage ecosystems at risk, improved security of biodiversity and food production in Australian rangelands, and training of early career researchers.Read moreRead less
Navigating under the forest canopy and in the urban jungle. This project aims to develop a framework for unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV), which optimally balances localisation, mapping and other objectives in order to solve sequential decision tasks under map and pose uncertainty. This project expects to generate new knowledge in UAV navigation using an innovative approach by combining simultaneous localisation and mapping algorithms with partially observable markov decision processes. The proje ....Navigating under the forest canopy and in the urban jungle. This project aims to develop a framework for unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV), which optimally balances localisation, mapping and other objectives in order to solve sequential decision tasks under map and pose uncertainty. This project expects to generate new knowledge in UAV navigation using an innovative approach by combining simultaneous localisation and mapping algorithms with partially observable markov decision processes. The project’s expected outcomes will enable UAVs to solve multiple objectives under map and pose uncertainty in GPS-denied environments. This will provide significant benefits, such as more responsive disaster management, bushfire monitoring and biosecurity, and improved environmental monitoring.Read moreRead less
Using species distribution models to make robust conservation decisions. Species distribution models inform numerous conservation decisions, from planning reserves and managing biological invasions to assessing climate change impacts. While it is often vital to predict where suitable conditions for a species occur, many applications disregard uncertainty, leading to unexpected and potentially unacceptable outcomes. This project aims to provide a definitive guide to using species distribution mod ....Using species distribution models to make robust conservation decisions. Species distribution models inform numerous conservation decisions, from planning reserves and managing biological invasions to assessing climate change impacts. While it is often vital to predict where suitable conditions for a species occur, many applications disregard uncertainty, leading to unexpected and potentially unacceptable outcomes. This project aims to provide a definitive guide to using species distribution models in conservation decision-making by integrating ecological and statistical thinking with decision theory. It seeks to describe how to explore the sources of uncertainty and their impact, develop approaches to reducing uncertainty, and evaluate the effects of uncertainty from the decision viewpoint in order to assist more robust conservation decision making.Read moreRead less
Assessment of past biodiversity through DNA preserved in bulk bone. This project aims to make a unique study of fossils to determine how the composition and biodiversity of ecosystems have changed in response to anthropogenic influences. Fossil bones provide a window through which to study past environments and how they have changed, and the stories these fossils tell can be further enhanced by ancient DNA analyses. This project plans to use bulk bone metabarcoding where hundreds of low-value (f ....Assessment of past biodiversity through DNA preserved in bulk bone. This project aims to make a unique study of fossils to determine how the composition and biodiversity of ecosystems have changed in response to anthropogenic influences. Fossil bones provide a window through which to study past environments and how they have changed, and the stories these fossils tell can be further enhanced by ancient DNA analyses. This project plans to use bulk bone metabarcoding where hundreds of low-value (fragmented) bones are collectively ground together to provide a cost-effective genetic audit of fossil assemblages. Working on bone from across Oceania and south-east Asia, this project aims to provide a historical perspective on biodiversity. Understanding former ecosystem composition and extinction may facilitate effective restoration and conservation initiatives.Read moreRead less
Modelling dynamics in spatial ecology. This project addresses how birth, death and movement drive patterns of plants and animals in space and time. We aim to apply and extend dynamical statistical models grounded in theory. Dynamical models are needed for us to understand how species and ecological communities respond to environmental change and disturbance including bushfires, climate change and extremes and species invasion. Using data from forest plots and animal movement, we aim to understan ....Modelling dynamics in spatial ecology. This project addresses how birth, death and movement drive patterns of plants and animals in space and time. We aim to apply and extend dynamical statistical models grounded in theory. Dynamical models are needed for us to understand how species and ecological communities respond to environmental change and disturbance including bushfires, climate change and extremes and species invasion. Using data from forest plots and animal movement, we aim to understand influences on individuals and species, and how to use that to generate robust predictions. The project is expected to produce statistical models and software for use by ecologists. This should help predict, and manage, ecological impacts of environmental change and disturbances.Read moreRead less
Nature futures: mapping pathways to prosperity for people and nature. Population growth, consumption and trade are direct socio-economic drivers of land use change and climate change, which determine where species can persist. The UN Sustainable Development Goals and national policies acknowledge the dependence of people on nature and the impact of socio-economic drivers on nature. However, few analyses of impacts on nature explicitly incorporate socio-economic drivers. Utilising a novel modelli ....Nature futures: mapping pathways to prosperity for people and nature. Population growth, consumption and trade are direct socio-economic drivers of land use change and climate change, which determine where species can persist. The UN Sustainable Development Goals and national policies acknowledge the dependence of people on nature and the impact of socio-economic drivers on nature. However, few analyses of impacts on nature explicitly incorporate socio-economic drivers. Utilising a novel modelling framework and high-performance computing we will integrate economic, land use and biodiversity models to evaluate: (i) policies and incentives for increasing national vegetation cover for carbon sequestration and habitat, and (ii) global risks to nature posed by land use change under future geopolitical scenarios.Read moreRead less
Using larval connectivity to inform marine reserve network designs in the Coral Triangle. Networks of no-take marine reserves are considered critical tools to ensure conservation and food security targets in the Coral Triangle Region, just north of Australia. More than 1400 community-managed marine reserves have been established in the Philippines, the most populace part of the Coral Triangle. The local conservation and fisheries benefits of these reserves have been well documented. A need now e ....Using larval connectivity to inform marine reserve network designs in the Coral Triangle. Networks of no-take marine reserves are considered critical tools to ensure conservation and food security targets in the Coral Triangle Region, just north of Australia. More than 1400 community-managed marine reserves have been established in the Philippines, the most populace part of the Coral Triangle. The local conservation and fisheries benefits of these reserves have been well documented. A need now exists to convert these individual reserves into operational reserve networks. This project proposes to use new information on larval connectivity, biodiversity and human usage patterns, and local governance networks, to systematically improve the design of an existing Philippine reserve network. Read moreRead less
An elemental hypothesis for sub-tropical refugia in reef corals. This project aims to discover the underlying traits that permit Australian reef corals to live near the edges of their ranges in relatively cool water. As ocean temperatures warm, novel communities are expected to develop in high latitude ecosystems, which might become important as thermal refugia for low latitude coral reefs. The project aims to test the role of elemental composition (carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus) in coral host ....An elemental hypothesis for sub-tropical refugia in reef corals. This project aims to discover the underlying traits that permit Australian reef corals to live near the edges of their ranges in relatively cool water. As ocean temperatures warm, novel communities are expected to develop in high latitude ecosystems, which might become important as thermal refugia for low latitude coral reefs. The project aims to test the role of elemental composition (carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus) in coral host and symbiont response to changing water temperature along a latitudinal gradient. The intended outcome of the project is to provide knowledge to support predictions of likely species migrations from tropical to subtropical waters, enabling managers to anticipate the future response of coral communities to seawater warming.Read moreRead less
Conserving coral reef fish and sustaining fisheries in the anthropocene. This project aims to re-evaluate principles for designing marine reserves to conserve reef fish and sustain fisheries under current and future scenarios of habitat quality and population connectivity. The project will integrate advanced genetic methods, novel field experiments and new quantitative approaches to optimise reserve network design to promote population recovery, persistence and yield for a range of fish species. ....Conserving coral reef fish and sustaining fisheries in the anthropocene. This project aims to re-evaluate principles for designing marine reserves to conserve reef fish and sustain fisheries under current and future scenarios of habitat quality and population connectivity. The project will integrate advanced genetic methods, novel field experiments and new quantitative approaches to optimise reserve network design to promote population recovery, persistence and yield for a range of fish species. It will recommend optimal reserve size, spacing and location for geographic regions subject to different levels of habitat degradation and fishing pressure. It will benefit Australia and our regional neighbours by providing the critical science necessary for the successful management of shared coral reef assets and resources.Read moreRead less
Ecologically responsible mining to fuel a green energy transition. An energy transition is key to tackling climate change. However, renewable energy is mineral intensive and boosting its supply may create new mining threats to biodiversity. This project aims to facilitate strategic development of ecologically responsible mining. It expects to reveal where new mines will be needed to meet future energy demand, and create innovative tools to predict and mitigate threats to plants and animals. Expe ....Ecologically responsible mining to fuel a green energy transition. An energy transition is key to tackling climate change. However, renewable energy is mineral intensive and boosting its supply may create new mining threats to biodiversity. This project aims to facilitate strategic development of ecologically responsible mining. It expects to reveal where new mines will be needed to meet future energy demand, and create innovative tools to predict and mitigate threats to plants and animals. Expected outcomes include an improved ability to inform sustainable climate and energy policies, leading to strategic investment decisions, cleaner mineral supply chains and conservation outcomes that capture valuable environmental and social benefits and create a competitive advantage for Australia’s mining sector.Read moreRead less