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Using species distribution models to make robust conservation decisions. Species distribution models inform numerous conservation decisions, from planning reserves and managing biological invasions to assessing climate change impacts. While it is often vital to predict where suitable conditions for a species occur, many applications disregard uncertainty, leading to unexpected and potentially unacceptable outcomes. This project aims to provide a definitive guide to using species distribution mod ....Using species distribution models to make robust conservation decisions. Species distribution models inform numerous conservation decisions, from planning reserves and managing biological invasions to assessing climate change impacts. While it is often vital to predict where suitable conditions for a species occur, many applications disregard uncertainty, leading to unexpected and potentially unacceptable outcomes. This project aims to provide a definitive guide to using species distribution models in conservation decision-making by integrating ecological and statistical thinking with decision theory. It seeks to describe how to explore the sources of uncertainty and their impact, develop approaches to reducing uncertainty, and evaluate the effects of uncertainty from the decision viewpoint in order to assist more robust conservation decision making.Read moreRead less
Modelling dynamics in spatial ecology. This project addresses how birth, death and movement drive patterns of plants and animals in space and time. We aim to apply and extend dynamical statistical models grounded in theory. Dynamical models are needed for us to understand how species and ecological communities respond to environmental change and disturbance including bushfires, climate change and extremes and species invasion. Using data from forest plots and animal movement, we aim to understan ....Modelling dynamics in spatial ecology. This project addresses how birth, death and movement drive patterns of plants and animals in space and time. We aim to apply and extend dynamical statistical models grounded in theory. Dynamical models are needed for us to understand how species and ecological communities respond to environmental change and disturbance including bushfires, climate change and extremes and species invasion. Using data from forest plots and animal movement, we aim to understand influences on individuals and species, and how to use that to generate robust predictions. The project is expected to produce statistical models and software for use by ecologists. This should help predict, and manage, ecological impacts of environmental change and disturbances.Read moreRead less
Nature futures: mapping pathways to prosperity for people and nature. Population growth, consumption and trade are direct socio-economic drivers of land use change and climate change, which determine where species can persist. The UN Sustainable Development Goals and national policies acknowledge the dependence of people on nature and the impact of socio-economic drivers on nature. However, few analyses of impacts on nature explicitly incorporate socio-economic drivers. Utilising a novel modelli ....Nature futures: mapping pathways to prosperity for people and nature. Population growth, consumption and trade are direct socio-economic drivers of land use change and climate change, which determine where species can persist. The UN Sustainable Development Goals and national policies acknowledge the dependence of people on nature and the impact of socio-economic drivers on nature. However, few analyses of impacts on nature explicitly incorporate socio-economic drivers. Utilising a novel modelling framework and high-performance computing we will integrate economic, land use and biodiversity models to evaluate: (i) policies and incentives for increasing national vegetation cover for carbon sequestration and habitat, and (ii) global risks to nature posed by land use change under future geopolitical scenarios.Read moreRead less
An elemental hypothesis for sub-tropical refugia in reef corals. This project aims to discover the underlying traits that permit Australian reef corals to live near the edges of their ranges in relatively cool water. As ocean temperatures warm, novel communities are expected to develop in high latitude ecosystems, which might become important as thermal refugia for low latitude coral reefs. The project aims to test the role of elemental composition (carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus) in coral host ....An elemental hypothesis for sub-tropical refugia in reef corals. This project aims to discover the underlying traits that permit Australian reef corals to live near the edges of their ranges in relatively cool water. As ocean temperatures warm, novel communities are expected to develop in high latitude ecosystems, which might become important as thermal refugia for low latitude coral reefs. The project aims to test the role of elemental composition (carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus) in coral host and symbiont response to changing water temperature along a latitudinal gradient. The intended outcome of the project is to provide knowledge to support predictions of likely species migrations from tropical to subtropical waters, enabling managers to anticipate the future response of coral communities to seawater warming.Read moreRead less
Aboriginal patch burning and the quest for sustainable fire management. This project aims to document historical changes in the spatial grain of the patch burning mosaic in an Arnhem Land savannah with an unbroken history of management by Aboriginal people, and in adjacent areas where traditional management has ceased. The mosaic's spatial grain will be inferred by mapping the individual ages of the long-lived conifer Callitris intratropica. Prior research has shown that Callitris individuals c ....Aboriginal patch burning and the quest for sustainable fire management. This project aims to document historical changes in the spatial grain of the patch burning mosaic in an Arnhem Land savannah with an unbroken history of management by Aboriginal people, and in adjacent areas where traditional management has ceased. The mosaic's spatial grain will be inferred by mapping the individual ages of the long-lived conifer Callitris intratropica. Prior research has shown that Callitris individuals can be reliably aged, and population structures are very sensitive to fire regimes: saplings only establish if unburnt for 10 years. This research is expected to provide the first direct test of the hypothesis that Aboriginal people maintained fine-grained fire mosaics in savannas, and inform bushfire policy debates.Read moreRead less
The role of common species in biodiversity turnover and function . This project aims to understand how common species change across regions and how this affects the functions that biodiversity provides across natural and built landscapes. Using a novel, information-rich approach and metric, the project aims to combine simulation experiments, and empirical data using organisms with low (plants) and high mobility (birds). Expected outcomes include new theory and improved biodiversity models, polic ....The role of common species in biodiversity turnover and function . This project aims to understand how common species change across regions and how this affects the functions that biodiversity provides across natural and built landscapes. Using a novel, information-rich approach and metric, the project aims to combine simulation experiments, and empirical data using organisms with low (plants) and high mobility (birds). Expected outcomes include new theory and improved biodiversity models, policy and management-relevant insights, new institutional collaborations, and student training. The research aims to provide significant benefits for understanding and monitoring the dynamics of common species, including problem species and common native species in rapid decline.Read moreRead less
Using decision theory to design smart plant surveys. Threatened species may remain unprotected, or weeds detected too slowly if, because of imperfect detection, a species is believed to be absent when it is in fact present. This project will develop new theory and combine it with new estimates of detection rates to minimise the impact of imperfect detection on management decisions.
Consequences of temporal community turnover. This project aims to understand how environmental change affects compensatory dynamics of species. Species numbers do not change over time in local ecological communities, but species composition is changing at an unprecedented level across the globe. The implications of these compensatory dynamics for the resilience of ecological communities and how they affect ecosystems are important for community ecology and conservation. This project could reveal ....Consequences of temporal community turnover. This project aims to understand how environmental change affects compensatory dynamics of species. Species numbers do not change over time in local ecological communities, but species composition is changing at an unprecedented level across the globe. The implications of these compensatory dynamics for the resilience of ecological communities and how they affect ecosystems are important for community ecology and conservation. This project could reveal the functional consequences of temporal community change, contributing new insights into the effects of environmental change especially on soil ecosystems.Read moreRead less
Evaluating environment policy that has immediate costs but long-term gains. A fundamental challenge for environmental policies is the different timescales over which ecological and financial costs and benefits occur. For example, whilst revegetation to offset land clearing incurs immediate costs, it can take decades for it to become suitable habitat for wildlife. These long time lags can lead to inefficiencies in spending and poor environmental outcomes. This project aims to develop novel approa ....Evaluating environment policy that has immediate costs but long-term gains. A fundamental challenge for environmental policies is the different timescales over which ecological and financial costs and benefits occur. For example, whilst revegetation to offset land clearing incurs immediate costs, it can take decades for it to become suitable habitat for wildlife. These long time lags can lead to inefficiencies in spending and poor environmental outcomes. This project aims to develop novel approaches for evaluating the future impacts of environmental policies and new methods for improving their design. It is intended that the methods be tested and demonstrated in the policy context of biodiversity offsetting, which is set to play a key role in nature conservation globally.Read moreRead less
Host-tumour interplay in Tasmanian devils with devil facial tumour disease: can immune cells be harnessed for therapy? Tasmanian devils only exist naturally in Tasmania and Devil Facial Tumour Disease, an infectious cancer, could cause the extinction of the Tasmanian devil. This project will determine if Devil Facial Tumour Disease reduces the effectiveness of the devil's immune system and test if activated immune cells can protect against this disease.