Developing group-based elicitation methods to improve decision making. This project aims to develop an elicitation methodology enabling multiple members of a team to contribute to the same technical problem - enabling expertise to be accurately combined while avoiding group and individual sources of bias. Good elicitation methods minimise bias in estimates and forecasts - which otherwise erode value and lead to sub-optimal decision making. Existing methods, however, ignore group structures; that ....Developing group-based elicitation methods to improve decision making. This project aims to develop an elicitation methodology enabling multiple members of a team to contribute to the same technical problem - enabling expertise to be accurately combined while avoiding group and individual sources of bias. Good elicitation methods minimise bias in estimates and forecasts - which otherwise erode value and lead to sub-optimal decision making. Existing methods, however, ignore group structures; that is that decisions made by, or on, the advice of teams have different characteristics than individual decisions and often preclude the use of methods designed to limit individuals' biases. By encoding the method into a computerised tool the project will assist public and private sector enterprises to improve group decision making.Read moreRead less
Human Decision-Making Processes and Outcomes in the Oil and Gas Industry. A new theoretical framework, including a new Decision Taxonomy and the development of a new measure of decision quality, will be used to underpin a study of decision processes and outcomes in the oil & gas industry, and to explore the relationship between them. Processes and outcomes will be evaluated in both a controlled laboratory setting that replicates the characteristics of real decision environments, and by analysing ....Human Decision-Making Processes and Outcomes in the Oil and Gas Industry. A new theoretical framework, including a new Decision Taxonomy and the development of a new measure of decision quality, will be used to underpin a study of decision processes and outcomes in the oil & gas industry, and to explore the relationship between them. Processes and outcomes will be evaluated in both a controlled laboratory setting that replicates the characteristics of real decision environments, and by analysing actual historical decisions made in oil & gas and other industrial settings. If successful the results will ultimately lead to the safe, responsible and optimal performance of the oil & gas industry in particular, and for other industries with similar characteristics.
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