Statistical methods for quantifying variation in spatiotemporal areal data. This project aims to develop new statistical methods for extracting insights into spatial and temporal variation in areal data. These tools will extend the Australian Cancer Atlas which provides small area estimates for 20 cancers across Australia. The project is significant because it will allow government and other organisations to reap dividends from investment in collecting spatial information and it will enable mode ....Statistical methods for quantifying variation in spatiotemporal areal data. This project aims to develop new statistical methods for extracting insights into spatial and temporal variation in areal data. These tools will extend the Australian Cancer Atlas which provides small area estimates for 20 cancers across Australia. The project is significant because it will allow government and other organisations to reap dividends from investment in collecting spatial information and it will enable modelled small-area estimates to be released without compromising confidentiality. The expected outcomes include new statistical knowledge and new insights into cancer. The results will benefit the many disciplines, managers and policy makers that make decisions based on geographic data mapped over space and time. Read moreRead less
Nowcasting outbreaks leveraging genomic and epidemiological data. This project aims to inform outbreak response planning by developing new models of infectious disease outbreaks. The project expects to generate new knowledge on the processes driving ongoing outbreaks including those of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) and African swine fever by integrating the latest advances in Bayesian outbreak inference alongside unique simulation approaches. Expected outcomes should include a shift in how mo ....Nowcasting outbreaks leveraging genomic and epidemiological data. This project aims to inform outbreak response planning by developing new models of infectious disease outbreaks. The project expects to generate new knowledge on the processes driving ongoing outbreaks including those of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) and African swine fever by integrating the latest advances in Bayesian outbreak inference alongside unique simulation approaches. Expected outcomes should include a shift in how models are developed and used to inform the response to outbreaks as they unfold. This should enable more rapid outbreak containment in Australia and overseas, leading to reduced impacts on public and animal health, and associated industries.Read moreRead less
Integrating niches, interactions and dispersal in species distribution models. This proposal aims to develop a framework for statistical modelling that integrates across spatial scales and disentangles the processes of environmental tolerance, biotic interactions and dispersal. Understanding the processes that drive species distributions and ecological communities is central to ecology and environmental management. This knowledge can be used to anticipate the impacts of environmental change on e ....Integrating niches, interactions and dispersal in species distribution models. This proposal aims to develop a framework for statistical modelling that integrates across spatial scales and disentangles the processes of environmental tolerance, biotic interactions and dispersal. Understanding the processes that drive species distributions and ecological communities is central to ecology and environmental management. This knowledge can be used to anticipate the impacts of environmental change on ecosystems, and the likely benefits of interventions. Current statistical models limit the data that can be used and the ecological questions that can be answered. This project expects to improve our ability to predict species distributions under changed environments given interacting species and dispersal across the landscape.Read moreRead less
Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE240100398
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$349,886.00
Summary
Advancing detection and understanding of anomalous ecological change. Human impacts are driving ecosystems into new, anomalous states. Reliably detecting these ecological anomalies is essential to better understand how ecosystems change over time, and effectively manage natural resources. This project aims to advance ecological anomaly detection using techniques from complex fields such as banking fraud, cybersecurity and video surveillance. Expected project outcomes will improve understanding o ....Advancing detection and understanding of anomalous ecological change. Human impacts are driving ecosystems into new, anomalous states. Reliably detecting these ecological anomalies is essential to better understand how ecosystems change over time, and effectively manage natural resources. This project aims to advance ecological anomaly detection using techniques from complex fields such as banking fraud, cybersecurity and video surveillance. Expected project outcomes will improve understanding of patterns and drivers of both biodiversity and ecosystem change. Tools to reliably detect anomalous changes in complex ecological systems will provide significant benefits to ecosystem management, conservation decision-making and environmental remediation.Read moreRead less
High Predictive Performance Models via Semi-Parametric Survival Regression. This project will develop novel statistical models for high prediction performance. When applied to help doctor to treat patients, these models allow the users to include gene or other biomarkers for predicting effectiveness of a treatment. When applied to risk management in finance, these models are capable to include an organization's or individual's ongoing finance status to predict, for example, the probability of or ....High Predictive Performance Models via Semi-Parametric Survival Regression. This project will develop novel statistical models for high prediction performance. When applied to help doctor to treat patients, these models allow the users to include gene or other biomarkers for predicting effectiveness of a treatment. When applied to risk management in finance, these models are capable to include an organization's or individual's ongoing finance status to predict, for example, the probability of or time to loan default. Innovative computational methods will be developed for fitting these models. Compared to traditional prediction method, this approach allows greater flexibility while being superior in terms of statistical accuracy and bias. Extensive analyses of healthcare data from diverse fields will be undertaken.Read moreRead less
Demographic and evolutionary inferences from large, whole-genome datasets. A new data structure for genome-wide datasets has allowed great improvements in the efficiency of genomic data storage and in population genomics simulations, which are crucial to developing and testing mathematical models of population history and species evolution. We will take these advances in new directions, using efficient data structures to dramatically improve inferences about: the demographic histories of popul .... Demographic and evolutionary inferences from large, whole-genome datasets. A new data structure for genome-wide datasets has allowed great improvements in the efficiency of genomic data storage and in population genomics simulations, which are crucial to developing and testing mathematical models of population history and species evolution. We will take these advances in new directions, using efficient data structures to dramatically improve inferences about: the demographic histories of populations, rates of genome change, and phylogenetic networks, and we will develop the first inference methods for the multispecies coalescent with recombination. Outcomes will include advances in understanding the evolutionary histories of humans and other species, including pathogens of importance for global health.Read moreRead less
Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE190101326
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$391,546.00
Summary
Statistical methods for modelling the pathways between cause and effect. This project aims to develop new biostatistical methods for addressing complex analytic questions that arise in studies of the causes of health, social, educational and other outcomes in the course of human life. These questions concern the pathways that explain how intermediate factors contribute to a statistical relationship between a probable cause of a later outcome. Mathematical and statistical innovation is needed to ....Statistical methods for modelling the pathways between cause and effect. This project aims to develop new biostatistical methods for addressing complex analytic questions that arise in studies of the causes of health, social, educational and other outcomes in the course of human life. These questions concern the pathways that explain how intermediate factors contribute to a statistical relationship between a probable cause of a later outcome. Mathematical and statistical innovation is needed to address them. The expected outcomes include a suite of novel methods designed to evaluate the impact of intervening to modify causal pathways, while also accommodating common complexities of data such as incompleteness. This project should provide major benefits to studies in public health, social sciences and economics.Read moreRead less
Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE220101226
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$423,000.00
Summary
Testing Effects of Environmental Exposures on Subsequent Human Generations. This project aims to develop new statistical models to determine how environmental exposures in pregnancy, such as smoking, alcohol consumption and diet, can impact the first and second generations of children. The project will fill a void in unbiased tools to disentangle genetic and environmental components in the inheritance of complex traits, and will be the first to determine objectively if and how effects from envir ....Testing Effects of Environmental Exposures on Subsequent Human Generations. This project aims to develop new statistical models to determine how environmental exposures in pregnancy, such as smoking, alcohol consumption and diet, can impact the first and second generations of children. The project will fill a void in unbiased tools to disentangle genetic and environmental components in the inheritance of complex traits, and will be the first to determine objectively if and how effects from environmental exposures can be inherited. Through international collaborations and advanced interdisciplinary approaches, this project will generate new knowledge in the emerging field of multigenerational inheritance to drive the future design of interventions and influence positive behaviours during pregnancy.Read moreRead less
Increasing the efficiency and interpretability of stepped wedge trials. Stepped wedge cluster randomised trials are increasingly being used to test interventions, across many disciplines. This project aims to develop highly efficient trial designs and new methods for the estimation of causally interpretable effects when adherence to interventions is not perfect. This project expects to generate new design types that reduce resources required to test interventions, and methods to understand how t ....Increasing the efficiency and interpretability of stepped wedge trials. Stepped wedge cluster randomised trials are increasingly being used to test interventions, across many disciplines. This project aims to develop highly efficient trial designs and new methods for the estimation of causally interpretable effects when adherence to interventions is not perfect. This project expects to generate new design types that reduce resources required to test interventions, and methods to understand how these interventions work. Expected outcomes include tools to help researchers develop cheaper and more appealing trials, tools to estimate causal effects, the methodology underpinning these tools, and new collaborations. This should provide significant benefits by allowing more interventions to be tested and understood.Read moreRead less
Guiding principles and guardrails for genetic association studies. This project aims to investigate deep connections between genetic structure (population genetic processes, linkage disequilibrium and population structure) and the ability to statistically detect genetic variants responsible for variation in traits. The project expects to generate new knowledge in the areas of statistics, mathematics and biology through an innovative, multidisciplinary approach that synthesises and extends founda ....Guiding principles and guardrails for genetic association studies. This project aims to investigate deep connections between genetic structure (population genetic processes, linkage disequilibrium and population structure) and the ability to statistically detect genetic variants responsible for variation in traits. The project expects to generate new knowledge in the areas of statistics, mathematics and biology through an innovative, multidisciplinary approach that synthesises and extends foundational disciplinary results. Expected outcomes of this project include principles and methodology that underpin future genetic association studies by supplying a framework for interpreting results. This should provide significant benefits by reducing false conclusions and their associated costs.Read moreRead less