Developing mathematical models of infection and transmission to link biology, epidemiology and public health policy. Infectious diseases constitute a significant burden on the health of the population. Understanding how best to control them requires a multi-faceted approach, combining data from biology, medicine and population health with mathematical and computational models of disease transmission. This project will investigate the "flu" and other diseases.
New methods for integrating population structure and stochasticity into models of disease dynamics. Epidemics, such as the 2007 equine 'flu outbreak and 2009 swine 'flu pandemic, highlight the need to make informed decisive responses. This project will develop new methods that incorporate two important aspects of disease dynamics---host structure and chance---into mathematical models, and determine their impact in terms of controlling infections.
Evolutionary models and bioinformatic analyses of genetic variation in pathogens. The benefits of this project are better preparedness for the ever-present threat of infectious disease spread and the stimulation of bioinformatic research in Australia. Epidemics such as the Influenza Pandemic of 1918, which killed over 20 million people, highlight the need to understand and track pathogens that can potentially cause such devastation. Along with the development of molecular technologies, it is imp ....Evolutionary models and bioinformatic analyses of genetic variation in pathogens. The benefits of this project are better preparedness for the ever-present threat of infectious disease spread and the stimulation of bioinformatic research in Australia. Epidemics such as the Influenza Pandemic of 1918, which killed over 20 million people, highlight the need to understand and track pathogens that can potentially cause such devastation. Along with the development of molecular technologies, it is important to maintain active creation of analytical methods that appropriately apply to growing databases. These include methods to understand genetic variation in pathogens. This project will help to keep Australia at the forefront of research in theoretical biology.Read moreRead less
Modelling and estimation techniques for the transmission and control of Tuberculosis with new and existing vaccines. Most Tuberculosis in Australia is seen in foreign-born people. Australia has an important role in providing leadership in the Asia-Pacific region in Tuberculosis control, which will have flow-on benefits to TB control in this country. Using mathematical models, this project will assess the use of vaccines for Tuberculosis in the developing world. Rising levels of extremely drug r ....Modelling and estimation techniques for the transmission and control of Tuberculosis with new and existing vaccines. Most Tuberculosis in Australia is seen in foreign-born people. Australia has an important role in providing leadership in the Asia-Pacific region in Tuberculosis control, which will have flow-on benefits to TB control in this country. Using mathematical models, this project will assess the use of vaccines for Tuberculosis in the developing world. Rising levels of extremely drug resistant infections make this a timely and important study with significant policy implications, both externally and in the Australian context. Read moreRead less
Using mathematical modelling to inform HIV/AIDS public health policy. This research will directly inform HIV/AIDS policy officials on the most effective strategies for preventing new cases in HIV in the community. Consequently, there are health benefits for Australia and for the other countries in which the research is being conducted. HIV/AIDS community groups, educators, and other advocacy groups will also be engaged in the research, leading to the development of focussed prevention campaigns ....Using mathematical modelling to inform HIV/AIDS public health policy. This research will directly inform HIV/AIDS policy officials on the most effective strategies for preventing new cases in HIV in the community. Consequently, there are health benefits for Australia and for the other countries in which the research is being conducted. HIV/AIDS community groups, educators, and other advocacy groups will also be engaged in the research, leading to the development of focussed prevention campaigns by these stakeholders to inform the appropriate communities. Reducing the health burdens of HIV/AIDS will also have economic benefits.Read moreRead less
Allocating scarce HIV/AIDS antiretroviral drugs in resource-constrained countries: using modelling to develop tools and analyse consequences of ethics and HIV-epidemiology. This project will benefit communities in some of the poorest countries of the world, suffering greatly from the HIV/AIDS epidemic. This research is important and timely for these nations in deciding how to distribute the limited treatment in an ethical manner to address treatment principles of these countries. However, the me ....Allocating scarce HIV/AIDS antiretroviral drugs in resource-constrained countries: using modelling to develop tools and analyse consequences of ethics and HIV-epidemiology. This project will benefit communities in some of the poorest countries of the world, suffering greatly from the HIV/AIDS epidemic. This research is important and timely for these nations in deciding how to distribute the limited treatment in an ethical manner to address treatment principles of these countries. However, the methods developed can also be applied to other diseases in different regions and people, such as Australian aborigines to increase their quality of health. Specifically, an epidemic of Chlamydia is widespread amongst the aboriginal communities of Australia's Northern Territory. Tools developed in this project will be easily adaptable to address control measures for Chlamydia among this population. Read moreRead less
Modelling disease evolution and emergence. Approximately 75% of all emergent diseases have established in humans having switched from other species: Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV), Malaria, SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome), Ebola, West Nile Virus and many more. Further, cross species infections put our biodiversity and economy at risk: plant and animal diseases entering Australia can destroy crops and at-risk native species. This project will provide for the first time the statistica ....Modelling disease evolution and emergence. Approximately 75% of all emergent diseases have established in humans having switched from other species: Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV), Malaria, SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome), Ebola, West Nile Virus and many more. Further, cross species infections put our biodiversity and economy at risk: plant and animal diseases entering Australia can destroy crops and at-risk native species. This project will provide for the first time the statistical framework for scientists to assess risk of such diseases entering Australia as a key to combating them.Read moreRead less
Understanding spatial trends in HIV/AIDS infections in South Africa and Australia. This project will develop quantitative methods that will be used to inform public health officials in understanding past and current HIV/AIDS epidemics as well as planning for the future of these epidemics. It will understand not only the behavioural and demographic characteristics of importance as risk factors for HIV infection in South Africa, the epicentre of the global HIV pandemic, but also the geographical s ....Understanding spatial trends in HIV/AIDS infections in South Africa and Australia. This project will develop quantitative methods that will be used to inform public health officials in understanding past and current HIV/AIDS epidemics as well as planning for the future of these epidemics. It will understand not only the behavioural and demographic characteristics of importance as risk factors for HIV infection in South Africa, the epicentre of the global HIV pandemic, but also the geographical spatial locations in which HIV cases are likely to emerge in the future. This project will also forecast the future geographical trends in Australia's changing HIV epidemic in order to plan for intervention strategies and prepare clinical practice appropriately.Read moreRead less