GBR as a significant source of climatically relevant aerosol particles. Every cloud drop is formed from a microscopic aerosol particle, known as a cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). In unpolluted environments the CCN particles originate from biogenic sources. Determining the magnitude and driving factors of biogenic aerosol production in different ecosystems is crucial to the development and improvement of climate models. This project aims to determine the mechanisms of new particle production fro ....GBR as a significant source of climatically relevant aerosol particles. Every cloud drop is formed from a microscopic aerosol particle, known as a cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). In unpolluted environments the CCN particles originate from biogenic sources. Determining the magnitude and driving factors of biogenic aerosol production in different ecosystems is crucial to the development and improvement of climate models. This project aims to determine the mechanisms of new particle production from one of the biggest ecosystems in Australia, the Great Barrier Reef. It is expected that the project will establish whether marine aerosol along the Queensland coast is coral-derived and show that this aerosol can affect the CCN concentration and therefore cloud formation and the hydrological cycle.Read moreRead less
Understanding the Origin and Development of Extreme and Mega Bushfires. Extreme and megafires result in significant damage to property and infrastructure and are associated with large suppression costs. These events form when separate fires Merge. Their increase occurrence in recent seasons highlights the importance of developing tools and technologies that better predict extreme events to aid fire response and inform strategies for greater resilience. This project combines fire field experiment ....Understanding the Origin and Development of Extreme and Mega Bushfires. Extreme and megafires result in significant damage to property and infrastructure and are associated with large suppression costs. These events form when separate fires Merge. Their increase occurrence in recent seasons highlights the importance of developing tools and technologies that better predict extreme events to aid fire response and inform strategies for greater resilience. This project combines fire field experiments with computer modelling to determine factors driving extreme fire development, and develop new knowledge and models. These enable better prediction of active fires, enhance the knowledge base of fire managers for critical decision making and to improve risk modelling and mitigation planning for fire-prone communities.Read moreRead less
Improving the credibility of regional sea level rise projections. Anthropogenic sea level rise is expected to inundate low-lying islands and coastlines around the world, with multiple model projections suggesting that changes in wind patterns will lead to larger than average sea level rise along Australia’s east coast and in neighbouring small island nations. Confidence in projections of this spatial sea level rise variability is low, however, due to a strong mismatch between patterns of observe ....Improving the credibility of regional sea level rise projections. Anthropogenic sea level rise is expected to inundate low-lying islands and coastlines around the world, with multiple model projections suggesting that changes in wind patterns will lead to larger than average sea level rise along Australia’s east coast and in neighbouring small island nations. Confidence in projections of this spatial sea level rise variability is low, however, due to a strong mismatch between patterns of observed and model-projected sea level rise in recent decades. This work will use a newly developed climate model hierarchy and innovative experimental design to determine the cause of this discrepancy and will produce more credible regional sea level rise projections by clarifying and reducing projection uncertainty.
Read moreRead less
A regional coupled climate model for Australia. This project aims to implement a regional, coupled atmosphere and ocean model, to determine under what circumstance ocean-atmosphere interactions are critical. Regional high-resolution atmosphere models are routinely used to provide projections of climate at the local scales needed by decision makers. However, these tools neglect the fine-scale interactions between ocean and atmosphere that can significantly modify conditions around coastal or isla ....A regional coupled climate model for Australia. This project aims to implement a regional, coupled atmosphere and ocean model, to determine under what circumstance ocean-atmosphere interactions are critical. Regional high-resolution atmosphere models are routinely used to provide projections of climate at the local scales needed by decision makers. However, these tools neglect the fine-scale interactions between ocean and atmosphere that can significantly modify conditions around coastal or island regions. This project intends to deliver the first high-resolution projections of both ocean and atmosphere off eastern Australia to understand how small-scale ocean and atmosphere processes and their interactions affect changes in extreme rainfall, marine heat waves and ocean circulation.Read moreRead less
Remote forcing of Pacific Ocean variability and impacts on global climate. Variability in the Pacific Ocean has a profound impact on global climate. Recent unprecedented decadal variability in the Pacific has been linked to global temperature trends and extremes, yet little is known about what drives this variability or its impact on regional climate. This project will combine observations, advanced coupled climate models and ocean-atmosphere dynamical theory to quantify remote drivers of Pacifi ....Remote forcing of Pacific Ocean variability and impacts on global climate. Variability in the Pacific Ocean has a profound impact on global climate. Recent unprecedented decadal variability in the Pacific has been linked to global temperature trends and extremes, yet little is known about what drives this variability or its impact on regional climate. This project will combine observations, advanced coupled climate models and ocean-atmosphere dynamical theory to quantify remote drivers of Pacific Ocean variability on interannual-decadal time-scales. This project aims to enhance our understanding of the modes of variability operating in this region and their impact on global and Australian climate. This will have significant benefits for the many sectors of society reliant on interseasonal-decadal climate prediction.Read moreRead less
Testing a new explanation of cloud feedback on global climate. A new analysis suggests that the sensitivity of global climate to greenhouse gases is largely controlled by the upward transport of water vapour in the lower troposphere, but the analysis did not examine clouds, which must be involved for the mechanism to be valid. The aim of the proposed project is to determine whether variations in cloud implied by this new explanation are supported by observations and process models. If the explan ....Testing a new explanation of cloud feedback on global climate. A new analysis suggests that the sensitivity of global climate to greenhouse gases is largely controlled by the upward transport of water vapour in the lower troposphere, but the analysis did not examine clouds, which must be involved for the mechanism to be valid. The aim of the proposed project is to determine whether variations in cloud implied by this new explanation are supported by observations and process models. If the explanation is confirmed, then for the first time in over 30 years of intense research it will be possible to determine the long-term severity of global warming by examining the present-day atmosphere. The expected outcome of this research is to clarify how and why low clouds change in altered climates.Read moreRead less
The changing relationship between the South Asian and Australian Monsoon in a warming world. The success or failure of the Australian and South Asian Monsoons can mean the difference between prosperity and severe hardship in the affected regions. This project will help to understand the causes of the monsoon variability, both natural and human-induced, and what the future might have in store.