Links between bushfires in Victoria and floods in Queensland. This project will investigate connections between bushfires in Victoria and floods in Queensland under the framework that atmospheric blocking can be thought of as a common link. High resolution runs using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change future projections of the energetics of high impact weather will improve climate forecasts in sensitive coastal areas of the country.
Precipitation in shallow convection over the Southern Ocean. This project aims to quantify the amount of precipitation over the Southern Ocean and identify the key dynamical and microphysical processes that lead to its development. Large uncertainties exist in the frequency and intensity of precipitation, which limits the ability to model the coupled Southern Ocean climate system. Observations from the RV Investigator, an Australian marine research vessel, have revealed heavy precipitation event ....Precipitation in shallow convection over the Southern Ocean. This project aims to quantify the amount of precipitation over the Southern Ocean and identify the key dynamical and microphysical processes that lead to its development. Large uncertainties exist in the frequency and intensity of precipitation, which limits the ability to model the coupled Southern Ocean climate system. Observations from the RV Investigator, an Australian marine research vessel, have revealed heavy precipitation events within the shallow convection commonly found between fronts that have not been captured by either satellite observations or numerical models. This project will improve weather forecasts, including precipitation, and climate projections over the Southern Ocean and the adjoining Antarctic and the southern part of Australia.Read moreRead less
Tropical climate change, the Hadley and Walker Circulations, and Australian climate. Tropical climate systems, especially the overturning circulations and monsoons, have undergone change in recent decades and are expected to do so over the next century. However, a full understanding of these has proved elusive. The project will employ a suite of insightful diagnostics of these tropical circulations calculated from the latest, high-quality data and the results of modelling to isolate the key phys ....Tropical climate change, the Hadley and Walker Circulations, and Australian climate. Tropical climate systems, especially the overturning circulations and monsoons, have undergone change in recent decades and are expected to do so over the next century. However, a full understanding of these has proved elusive. The project will employ a suite of insightful diagnostics of these tropical circulations calculated from the latest, high-quality data and the results of modelling to isolate the key physical mechanisms at work. The research is significant in that tropical circulations determine the precipitation and temperature over large parts of the Earth’s surface, and particularly Australia. The physical underpinning of the changes will assist in forming outlooks for future climate for the ‘wet tropics’ and the ‘dry zones’.Read moreRead less
Trends in polar sea ice and associated global atmospheric circulations. The project aims to analyse the trends in sea ice extent over the polar regions, and explain them in terms of changes in the local and remote atmospheric circulation. In recent decades, Arctic sea ice has decreased dramatically, while increasing in the Antarctic. The resolution of this paradox is a pressing issue in climate science, as is the broad question of how sea ice influences, and is influenced by, climate conditions ....Trends in polar sea ice and associated global atmospheric circulations. The project aims to analyse the trends in sea ice extent over the polar regions, and explain them in terms of changes in the local and remote atmospheric circulation. In recent decades, Arctic sea ice has decreased dramatically, while increasing in the Antarctic. The resolution of this paradox is a pressing issue in climate science, as is the broad question of how sea ice influences, and is influenced by, climate conditions in the mid-latitudes and tropics. Anticipated outcomes include a better understanding of the nature of links between Australian climate and Antarctic ice, and between United States climate extremes and Arctic ice.Read moreRead less
GBR as a significant source of climatically relevant aerosol particles. Every cloud drop is formed from a microscopic aerosol particle, known as a cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). In unpolluted environments the CCN particles originate from biogenic sources. Determining the magnitude and driving factors of biogenic aerosol production in different ecosystems is crucial to the development and improvement of climate models. This project aims to determine the mechanisms of new particle production fro ....GBR as a significant source of climatically relevant aerosol particles. Every cloud drop is formed from a microscopic aerosol particle, known as a cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). In unpolluted environments the CCN particles originate from biogenic sources. Determining the magnitude and driving factors of biogenic aerosol production in different ecosystems is crucial to the development and improvement of climate models. This project aims to determine the mechanisms of new particle production from one of the biggest ecosystems in Australia, the Great Barrier Reef. It is expected that the project will establish whether marine aerosol along the Queensland coast is coral-derived and show that this aerosol can affect the CCN concentration and therefore cloud formation and the hydrological cycle.Read moreRead less
Understanding the Origin and Development of Extreme and Mega Bushfires. Extreme and megafires result in significant damage to property and infrastructure and are associated with large suppression costs. These events form when separate fires Merge. Their increase occurrence in recent seasons highlights the importance of developing tools and technologies that better predict extreme events to aid fire response and inform strategies for greater resilience. This project combines fire field experiment ....Understanding the Origin and Development of Extreme and Mega Bushfires. Extreme and megafires result in significant damage to property and infrastructure and are associated with large suppression costs. These events form when separate fires Merge. Their increase occurrence in recent seasons highlights the importance of developing tools and technologies that better predict extreme events to aid fire response and inform strategies for greater resilience. This project combines fire field experiments with computer modelling to determine factors driving extreme fire development, and develop new knowledge and models. These enable better prediction of active fires, enhance the knowledge base of fire managers for critical decision making and to improve risk modelling and mitigation planning for fire-prone communities.Read moreRead less
Improving the credibility of regional sea level rise projections. Anthropogenic sea level rise is expected to inundate low-lying islands and coastlines around the world, with multiple model projections suggesting that changes in wind patterns will lead to larger than average sea level rise along Australia’s east coast and in neighbouring small island nations. Confidence in projections of this spatial sea level rise variability is low, however, due to a strong mismatch between patterns of observe ....Improving the credibility of regional sea level rise projections. Anthropogenic sea level rise is expected to inundate low-lying islands and coastlines around the world, with multiple model projections suggesting that changes in wind patterns will lead to larger than average sea level rise along Australia’s east coast and in neighbouring small island nations. Confidence in projections of this spatial sea level rise variability is low, however, due to a strong mismatch between patterns of observed and model-projected sea level rise in recent decades. This work will use a newly developed climate model hierarchy and innovative experimental design to determine the cause of this discrepancy and will produce more credible regional sea level rise projections by clarifying and reducing projection uncertainty.
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Improving the avoidance and prediction of turbulence from thunderstorms. One of the most critical weather-related safety issues for aviation is atmospheric turbulence caused by thunderstorms. Thunderstorm-generated turbulence is responsible for frequent serious injuries and significant costs to airlines that are ultimately passed on to passengers. Using extensive new data, case studies and state-of-the-art simulations, this project aims to improve our understanding of the dynamics and behaviour ....Improving the avoidance and prediction of turbulence from thunderstorms. One of the most critical weather-related safety issues for aviation is atmospheric turbulence caused by thunderstorms. Thunderstorm-generated turbulence is responsible for frequent serious injuries and significant costs to airlines that are ultimately passed on to passengers. Using extensive new data, case studies and state-of-the-art simulations, this project aims to improve our understanding of the dynamics and behaviour of thunderstorm-generated turbulence and its representation in weather forecast models. Expected outcomes of this project include the development of new methods to avoid and predict turbulence for use by the aviation industry. This research should provide significant benefits, such as safer and more efficient air travel.Read moreRead less
A regional coupled climate model for Australia. This project aims to implement a regional, coupled atmosphere and ocean model, to determine under what circumstance ocean-atmosphere interactions are critical. Regional high-resolution atmosphere models are routinely used to provide projections of climate at the local scales needed by decision makers. However, these tools neglect the fine-scale interactions between ocean and atmosphere that can significantly modify conditions around coastal or isla ....A regional coupled climate model for Australia. This project aims to implement a regional, coupled atmosphere and ocean model, to determine under what circumstance ocean-atmosphere interactions are critical. Regional high-resolution atmosphere models are routinely used to provide projections of climate at the local scales needed by decision makers. However, these tools neglect the fine-scale interactions between ocean and atmosphere that can significantly modify conditions around coastal or island regions. This project intends to deliver the first high-resolution projections of both ocean and atmosphere off eastern Australia to understand how small-scale ocean and atmosphere processes and their interactions affect changes in extreme rainfall, marine heat waves and ocean circulation.Read moreRead less
Beyond the linear dynamics of the El Nino Southern Oscillation. This project will pioneer new climate models of the El Nino natural mode of climate variability, which will ultimately enable us to better predict seasonal weather fluctuation for Australia and improve our understanding of climate change in the tropical regions.