WaterLog - A mathematical model to implement recommendations of The Wentworth Group. In 2003, The Wentworth Group of Concerned Scientists released their 'Blueprint for a national water plan' with the primary objective to 'protect river health and the rights of all Australians to clean usable water'. Currently, there are significant water restrictions in all the Australian mainland capital cities. In January 2007, the Prime Minister of Australia, announced a bold plan to rescue the Murray-Darling ....WaterLog - A mathematical model to implement recommendations of The Wentworth Group. In 2003, The Wentworth Group of Concerned Scientists released their 'Blueprint for a national water plan' with the primary objective to 'protect river health and the rights of all Australians to clean usable water'. Currently, there are significant water restrictions in all the Australian mainland capital cities. In January 2007, the Prime Minister of Australia, announced a bold plan to rescue the Murray-Darling Basin. The plan incorporates political management changes, and an investment of $10Bn. Now is the time to develop improved techniques for management of water storage systems. This project will develop the fundamental mathematical principles required for this improved management.Read moreRead less
Dynamic prediction models in Australian rules football using real time performance statistics. The study is a collaborative venture with Champion Data, the Australian leader in the collection and transmission of real time sporting data, and official provider of the Australian Football League (AFL) statistics. The aim is to develop a real time on line predictive model for AFL football. The model will use the statistics Champion Data collect as the match progresses as inputs to continually updat ....Dynamic prediction models in Australian rules football using real time performance statistics. The study is a collaborative venture with Champion Data, the Australian leader in the collection and transmission of real time sporting data, and official provider of the Australian Football League (AFL) statistics. The aim is to develop a real time on line predictive model for AFL football. The model will use the statistics Champion Data collect as the match progresses as inputs to continually update estimates of the probabilities of various outcomes of interest such as the winner of the match and the margin of victory. The project will assist Champion in their strategic aim to provide an on line form guide.Read moreRead less
Theory and Applications of Computer-Intensive Statistical Methods. The availability of powerful computing equipment has had a dramatic impact on statistical methods and thinking. It has motivated development of novel approaches to data analysis, whose conception
and appreciation, even their application, often demand sophisticated and complex theoretical methods. In this context, the project will develop new approaches to solving non-standard statistical problems. These techniques will eithe ....Theory and Applications of Computer-Intensive Statistical Methods. The availability of powerful computing equipment has had a dramatic impact on statistical methods and thinking. It has motivated development of novel approaches to data analysis, whose conception
and appreciation, even their application, often demand sophisticated and complex theoretical methods. In this context, the project will develop new approaches to solving non-standard statistical problems. These techniques will either have direct application to solving practical problems of national or community concern, or provide a better understanding of the nature of such problems.Read moreRead less
Motor Unit Numbers Estimation (MUNE) using Bayesian statistical methodology for monitoring of progression of neuromuscular diseases. A means of objectively measuring the pathology of a neuromuscular disease involving motor unit loss, such as motor neuron disease, is much needed. This will be achieved by using newly developed electrophysiological techniques and developing new Bayesian statistical methodology to determine the number of motor units that supply a muscle. Our innovations will reliabl ....Motor Unit Numbers Estimation (MUNE) using Bayesian statistical methodology for monitoring of progression of neuromuscular diseases. A means of objectively measuring the pathology of a neuromuscular disease involving motor unit loss, such as motor neuron disease, is much needed. This will be achieved by using newly developed electrophysiological techniques and developing new Bayesian statistical methodology to determine the number of motor units that supply a muscle. Our innovations will reliably determine the number of motor units that supply a muscle in both normal subjects and in diseased patients with loss of motor nerves. This will enable the monitoring of disease progression. An outcome will be a software package that can be used with standard electrophysiology machines.Read moreRead less
NONPARAMETRIC STATISTICS. Nonparametric statistical methods are techniques that implicitly choose statistical models from exceptionally large and highly adaptive classes. The project aims to develop innovative and practicable nonparametric methods in four areas: Statistical Smoothing, Data Mining, Mixture Methods and Robust Inference. The significance of the work lies in its novelty, the breadth of its practical motivation, and its position at the leading edge of contemporary work in statisti ....NONPARAMETRIC STATISTICS. Nonparametric statistical methods are techniques that implicitly choose statistical models from exceptionally large and highly adaptive classes. The project aims to develop innovative and practicable nonparametric methods in four areas: Statistical Smoothing, Data Mining, Mixture Methods and Robust Inference. The significance of the work lies in its novelty, the breadth of its practical motivation, and its position at the leading edge of contemporary work in statistics. Expected outcomes include new technologies for data analysis.Read moreRead less
Models for Australian Electricity Derivatives. Electricity derivatives, such as electricity futures and options are used to manage the risk associated with volatility in prices of electricity. This project aims to develop models for pricing electricity derivatives specifically suited for Australia. Because of the non-storable nature of electricity the standard option pricing principle of "no-arbitrage" does not apply to electricity options, such as caps and floors, but applies to options on elec ....Models for Australian Electricity Derivatives. Electricity derivatives, such as electricity futures and options are used to manage the risk associated with volatility in prices of electricity. This project aims to develop models for pricing electricity derivatives specifically suited for Australia. Because of the non-storable nature of electricity the standard option pricing principle of "no-arbitrage" does not apply to electricity options, such as caps and floors, but applies to options on electricity futures. Therefore a specific model is needed that takes into account the pricing principle of "no-arbitrage" and combines it with other factors that drive electricity prices. The novel element in this proposal is incorporation of the weather forecasts into the models for electricity options. As a result of this study appropriate models for electricity derivatives for various geographical regions in Australia will be developed.Read moreRead less
Theory and application of computer-intensive, nonparametric statistical methods. The availability of increasingly powerful computing equipment continues to have a dramatic impact on statistical methods and thinking. These developments, combined with new technologies for generating data, are driving substantial changes in statistics, ranging from the types of problems being solved to the sorts of methods used to solve them. Both the problems and their solutions are of substantial national and c ....Theory and application of computer-intensive, nonparametric statistical methods. The availability of increasingly powerful computing equipment continues to have a dramatic impact on statistical methods and thinking. These developments, combined with new technologies for generating data, are driving substantial changes in statistics, ranging from the types of problems being solved to the sorts of methods used to solve them. Both the problems and their solutions are of substantial national and community benefit. They will be the subject of high-level research supported by this proposal. Read moreRead less
Statistical Analysis of Some Partially Observed Processes Arising in Ecological Research. The expected outcomes of this project are the provision of statistical methods to draw important information from samples from wild animal populations and the training of researchers to conduct high quality statistical ecological research. The national benefit lies on the availability of the developed techniques and researchers from this project to the society for finding better ways of managing Australia's ....Statistical Analysis of Some Partially Observed Processes Arising in Ecological Research. The expected outcomes of this project are the provision of statistical methods to draw important information from samples from wild animal populations and the training of researchers to conduct high quality statistical ecological research. The national benefit lies on the availability of the developed techniques and researchers from this project to the society for finding better ways of managing Australia's ecological systems and making Australia environmentally sustainable.Read moreRead less
Predicting Roll Angular Motion. The roll angular motion, or RAM, of a ship denotes its oscillation about its longitudinal axis, primarily caused by wave motion. The ability to predict RAM is of significant practical utility. For example, in defence-related work it plays a role in determining accuracy of weapons systems. We suggest a technique for predicting RAM. Our method borrows from both parametric and nonparametric statistics, in that a sinusoidal model is fitted to data but only over a ....Predicting Roll Angular Motion. The roll angular motion, or RAM, of a ship denotes its oscillation about its longitudinal axis, primarily caused by wave motion. The ability to predict RAM is of significant practical utility. For example, in defence-related work it plays a role in determining accuracy of weapons systems. We suggest a technique for predicting RAM. Our method borrows from both parametric and nonparametric statistics, in that a sinusoidal model is fitted to data but only over a short time interval. We show how to both assess and correct error. In particular, we propose methods for attaching probabilities to the accuracy of predictions.Read moreRead less
Nonparametric Statistical Methods -- New Directions, Theory and Applications. The research program will take Australia to the forefront of contemporary work in nonparametric statistics, and assist greatly in the training of a new generation of Australian statistical scientists. It will contribute significantly to restoring the health of this strategically important field, in Australian universities and in the nation more generally. The projects outlined in the proposal address problems arising ....Nonparametric Statistical Methods -- New Directions, Theory and Applications. The research program will take Australia to the forefront of contemporary work in nonparametric statistics, and assist greatly in the training of a new generation of Australian statistical scientists. It will contribute significantly to restoring the health of this strategically important field, in Australian universities and in the nation more generally. The projects outlined in the proposal address problems arising in astronomy, economics, engineering, defence, health and image analysis, but the potential areas of impact are broader even than this. This diversity illustrates the extraordinary potential, and strategic significance, of statistics to Australia. Read moreRead less