Optimising progress towards elimination of malaria. The project aims to advance mathematical knowledge by developing novel tools appropriate for modelling disease elimination. We will apply these new mathematical tools to the significant problem of malaria elimination in Vietnam. The expected outcomes are new tools for modelling disease elimination on a fine spatial resolution with heterogeneities in individual patient characteristics, calibrating models to household level data on disease transm ....Optimising progress towards elimination of malaria. The project aims to advance mathematical knowledge by developing novel tools appropriate for modelling disease elimination. We will apply these new mathematical tools to the significant problem of malaria elimination in Vietnam. The expected outcomes are new tools for modelling disease elimination on a fine spatial resolution with heterogeneities in individual patient characteristics, calibrating models to household level data on disease transmission and designing intervention strategies for maximum effect on disease transmission. The innovative combination of modelling, inference and optimisation ensures that the mathematical methods developed will be broadly applicable to modelling elimination strategies for other infectious diseases.
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Computational methods for population-size-dependent branching processes. Branching processes are the primary mathematical tool used to model populations that evolve randomly in time. Most key results in the theory are derived under the simplifying assumption that individuals reproduce and die independently of each other. However, this assumption fails in most real-life situations, in particular when the environment has limited resources or when the habitat has a restricted capacity. This project ....Computational methods for population-size-dependent branching processes. Branching processes are the primary mathematical tool used to model populations that evolve randomly in time. Most key results in the theory are derived under the simplifying assumption that individuals reproduce and die independently of each other. However, this assumption fails in most real-life situations, in particular when the environment has limited resources or when the habitat has a restricted capacity. This project aims to develop novel and effective algorithmic techniques and statistical methods for a class of branching processes with dependences. We will use these results to study significant problems in the conservation of endangered island bird populations in Oceania, and to help inform their conservation management.Read moreRead less
Advances in data integration modelling for infectious disease response. This project aims to develop powerful mathematical frameworks that integrate data from multiple sources to facilitate informed decisions in response to the threat of present, and future, infectious diseases. The project expects to generate new knowledge in mathematics by advancing the tools for incorporating multiple data sources into models of infectious diseases. The expected outcomes include enhanced capacity to predict s ....Advances in data integration modelling for infectious disease response. This project aims to develop powerful mathematical frameworks that integrate data from multiple sources to facilitate informed decisions in response to the threat of present, and future, infectious diseases. The project expects to generate new knowledge in mathematics by advancing the tools for incorporating multiple data sources into models of infectious diseases. The expected outcomes include enhanced capacity to predict spatiotemporal changes in transmission of infectious diseases. This project should provide significant benefits in the advancement of modelling techniques broadly applicable to infectious disease settings, which will be demonstrated for antimalarial drug resistance – a major threat to malaria elimination.
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