Noisy Parity Relationships in International Macroeconomic Models. Macroeconomic models of the Australian economy play a key role in the design of monetary and fiscal policy. Policymakers use these models either implicitly or explicitly, and usually begin to learn about them in principles courses. Parity relationships are foundation elements of these models, and have powerful implications for our understanding of macroeconomic dynamics. Classical statistical tests may have falsely led to an unhea ....Noisy Parity Relationships in International Macroeconomic Models. Macroeconomic models of the Australian economy play a key role in the design of monetary and fiscal policy. Policymakers use these models either implicitly or explicitly, and usually begin to learn about them in principles courses. Parity relationships are foundation elements of these models, and have powerful implications for our understanding of macroeconomic dynamics. Classical statistical tests may have falsely led to an unhealthy agnosticism regarding many of these relationships. This research will bring more appropriate statistical techniques to bear upon the problem, and if successful will restore confidence in decision-making processes and the relevance and applicability of macroeconomic models. Read moreRead less
Risk Management for Bonds, Currencies and Commodities. Understanding maturity-structure policy is a neglected topic. It needs research before we can determine whether public debt policy should accommodate the emerging needs of self-funded retirees - for long-term debt, new issues of index bonds, and 'survivor' bonds. Planning for annuity-rate risk has lagged far behind the sales of complying pensions. Over 2003 the Australian dollar rose by 34 percent, revealing major deficiencies in the standar ....Risk Management for Bonds, Currencies and Commodities. Understanding maturity-structure policy is a neglected topic. It needs research before we can determine whether public debt policy should accommodate the emerging needs of self-funded retirees - for long-term debt, new issues of index bonds, and 'survivor' bonds. Planning for annuity-rate risk has lagged far behind the sales of complying pensions. Over 2003 the Australian dollar rose by 34 percent, revealing major deficiencies in the standard advice on managing currency risks to retirement incomes. Uninsured disruptions to electricity supply have been an issue (eg in California), and demonstrate a need for innovative financial instruments that cushion and spread the costs.Read moreRead less
Economic Growth and Real Exchange Rates. Exchange rate movements are important elements of Australia's economic environment. Protectionist interests in the US and Europe, constrained by WTO trade rules, accuse East Asian economies of deliberate undervaluation. While exchange rate movements are not readily predictable in the short run, long run changes in underlying real exchange rates are amenable to economic analysis using structural models. The clearer understanding of these forces, toward ....Economic Growth and Real Exchange Rates. Exchange rate movements are important elements of Australia's economic environment. Protectionist interests in the US and Europe, constrained by WTO trade rules, accuse East Asian economies of deliberate undervaluation. While exchange rate movements are not readily predictable in the short run, long run changes in underlying real exchange rates are amenable to economic analysis using structural models. The clearer understanding of these forces, toward which this project is directed, will better guide investment in the region, including in Australia, and more importantly, it will better inform future policy debates surrounding currency movements.Read moreRead less
The World Economy, India and Exchange Banks: 1850 - 1914. This project aims to examine how exchange banks linked India to an expanding world economy between 1850 and 1914, and to show, in turn, how this process was defined by an imperial relationship that tied India to Britain. Its significance lies in the fact that while the exchange banks were central to the circulation of capital during this period, their crucial role in shaping the development of capitalism in India has been largely ignored. ....The World Economy, India and Exchange Banks: 1850 - 1914. This project aims to examine how exchange banks linked India to an expanding world economy between 1850 and 1914, and to show, in turn, how this process was defined by an imperial relationship that tied India to Britain. Its significance lies in the fact that while the exchange banks were central to the circulation of capital during this period, their crucial role in shaping the development of capitalism in India has been largely ignored. Expected outcomes include conference presentations, at least three articles, a monograph, and a digitised map that links time and space in outlining the spread of such banks.Read moreRead less
Security in Retirement: Forecasting and Managing Macro Investment Risks. In his Boyer Lectures Ian Macfarlane, former RBA governor, observed that risks once borne by employers or governments are in the process of being transferred to households. Retirement incomes are a case in point. Not only do most households belong to accumulation funds which shift investment risks to members, but exposure to growth assets (equities and property) in the typical account is in the 60% - 70% range, even in the ....Security in Retirement: Forecasting and Managing Macro Investment Risks. In his Boyer Lectures Ian Macfarlane, former RBA governor, observed that risks once borne by employers or governments are in the process of being transferred to households. Retirement incomes are a case in point. Not only do most households belong to accumulation funds which shift investment risks to members, but exposure to growth assets (equities and property) in the typical account is in the 60% - 70% range, even in the case of retirees. Our project will focus on the forecasting and management of economy-wide risks, as distinct from the equity risks or credit risks attached to investments in particular companies.Read moreRead less
Sins of the Fathers - The Role of Reputation in Capital Market Integration and the Choice of Exchange Rate Regime. This project investigates, theoretically and empirically, how past and present reputation for monetary policy credibility influences a country's choice of exchange rate regime and its ability to borrow internationally in domestic currency. The inability of emerging market countries to borrow in domestic currency is an important source of global financial instability, and the study c ....Sins of the Fathers - The Role of Reputation in Capital Market Integration and the Choice of Exchange Rate Regime. This project investigates, theoretically and empirically, how past and present reputation for monetary policy credibility influences a country's choice of exchange rate regime and its ability to borrow internationally in domestic currency. The inability of emerging market countries to borrow in domestic currency is an important source of global financial instability, and the study contributes to an understanding of how policymakers can better facilitate the process of international financial integration. By introducing new advances in the theory of reputation into models of exchange rate crises and examining lessons from Australian financial history, the research brings a fresh perspective to existing analyses of financial crises.Read moreRead less
Exchange Rates and Commodity Prices in a Volatile Business Environment. In recent years, many Australian companies have been hurt by the large movements in the value of the Australian dollar, by their inability to forecast these movements, and by deficiencies of their hedging strategies to deal with foreign-exchange risk. This project will develop an alternative way of forecasting the $A in real time using a new methodology, based on purchasing power parity, that shows much promise. Additional ....Exchange Rates and Commodity Prices in a Volatile Business Environment. In recent years, many Australian companies have been hurt by the large movements in the value of the Australian dollar, by their inability to forecast these movements, and by deficiencies of their hedging strategies to deal with foreign-exchange risk. This project will develop an alternative way of forecasting the $A in real time using a new methodology, based on purchasing power parity, that shows much promise. Additionally, an innovative way to analyse gold prices will be further developed, which when combined with the $A forecasts, offers a potentially valuable method of hedging foreign exchange and commodity price risk faced by Australian gold producers.Read moreRead less
Information Content of Order Flows in the Foreign Exchange and Commodities Markets. The Australian economy depends heavily on resources and commodities markets. The Australian dollar is the sixth most actively traded currency in the world and is more volatile than all other major currencies except the Japanese yen. The proposed study seeks to improve volatility forecasts and hedging effectiveness for foreign exchange and commodity risks, which will create significant benefits for the Australian ....Information Content of Order Flows in the Foreign Exchange and Commodities Markets. The Australian economy depends heavily on resources and commodities markets. The Australian dollar is the sixth most actively traded currency in the world and is more volatile than all other major currencies except the Japanese yen. The proposed study seeks to improve volatility forecasts and hedging effectiveness for foreign exchange and commodity risks, which will create significant benefits for the Australian economy, corporations, and investors. In addition, the project will enhance investment performance and risk management practice of financial institutions, improving the overall safety of our financial system. It will also foster research culture and increase research capacity of Australian financial institutions.Read moreRead less
IMPROVING THE THEORETICAL COHERENCE OF DATA-DRIVEN VAR MODELS. The project seeks to improve the tradeoff between theoretical and empirical coherence that is often present in empirical macroeconomic models. Using existing Australian models the project examines appropriate means of imposing theoretical restrictions on empirically coherent Vector Autoregression (VAR) models. Building on work by the authors, an improved VAR model of the Australian economy will be developed. This model will be used t ....IMPROVING THE THEORETICAL COHERENCE OF DATA-DRIVEN VAR MODELS. The project seeks to improve the tradeoff between theoretical and empirical coherence that is often present in empirical macroeconomic models. Using existing Australian models the project examines appropriate means of imposing theoretical restrictions on empirically coherent Vector Autoregression (VAR) models. Building on work by the authors, an improved VAR model of the Australian economy will be developed. This model will be used to assess particularly the impact of asset prices on inflation and economic performance over the past two decades. Further attention will be paid to assessing the role of monetary policy in the Australian economy.Read moreRead less
Economic Aspects of Wool in Western Australia. Over the past 15 years, the wool industry in WA has gone from bust to boom.. This project develops a general equilibrium model to analyse the impact of the world economic conditions on the wool industry and the WA economy in general. We will also investigate the reasons for the systematically lower wool prices in Fremantle and the interactions between Australian wool prices and exchange rates. The results will enhance understanding of the industry, ....Economic Aspects of Wool in Western Australia. Over the past 15 years, the wool industry in WA has gone from bust to boom.. This project develops a general equilibrium model to analyse the impact of the world economic conditions on the wool industry and the WA economy in general. We will also investigate the reasons for the systematically lower wool prices in Fremantle and the interactions between Australian wool prices and exchange rates. The results will enhance understanding of the industry, and offer insights as to how it might be made less volatile in the future by providing valuable information to woolgrowers and policy makers.Read moreRead less