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Physics-aware machine learning for data-driven fire risk prediction. The 2019/20 Australian fire season was unprecedented in its extent, impact, and the response of fire agencies. In this project, we aim to answer the question: was the scale of these fires driven by known drivers of fire (drought, weather, fuels and ignitions), or were fundamentally new undescribed processes and phenomena involved? We will accomplish this by developing an innovative, physics-aware machine learning model of fire ....Physics-aware machine learning for data-driven fire risk prediction. The 2019/20 Australian fire season was unprecedented in its extent, impact, and the response of fire agencies. In this project, we aim to answer the question: was the scale of these fires driven by known drivers of fire (drought, weather, fuels and ignitions), or were fundamentally new undescribed processes and phenomena involved? We will accomplish this by developing an innovative, physics-aware machine learning model of fire risk and spread, trained and validated on a two-decade satellite fire record. The predictive ability of the model will be tested on the 2019/20 fire season to determine if novel drivers of fire can be identified, and the model itself will be operationalised into a novel short-to-mid term fire risk prediction tool. Read moreRead less
Australia's variable rainfall - how dry or wet can it really get? Australia’s rainfall is extremely variable, which means existing weather records are too short to calculate the true risk posed by droughts and floods. This project aims to quantify how naturally variable the rainfall coming from the Indo-Pacific mid-latitudes is, allowing recent rainfall extremes and future projections to be assessed in a long-term context. This project expects to produce new estimates of atmospheric moisture bud ....Australia's variable rainfall - how dry or wet can it really get? Australia’s rainfall is extremely variable, which means existing weather records are too short to calculate the true risk posed by droughts and floods. This project aims to quantify how naturally variable the rainfall coming from the Indo-Pacific mid-latitudes is, allowing recent rainfall extremes and future projections to be assessed in a long-term context. This project expects to produce new estimates of atmospheric moisture budgets between Australia and Antarctica based on a novel, 1000-year length reconstruction of moisture-bearing southern Indian Ocean storms. This new information is critically needed by water managers so that they can properly calculate (and ultimately prepare for) the worst of Australia’s rainfall-related risks.Read moreRead less
Using the last glacial cycle to understand carbon-climate feedbacks . This project aims to investigate how the ocean’s carbon cycle will respond to anthropogenic climate change by examining its response to past climate variability. The project expects to generate new records of the dust feedback cycle and the microbial decomposition feedback cycle in the poorly studied Indian sector of the Southern Ocean. Expected outcomes include new datasets to test climate models, and a new method to detect t ....Using the last glacial cycle to understand carbon-climate feedbacks . This project aims to investigate how the ocean’s carbon cycle will respond to anthropogenic climate change by examining its response to past climate variability. The project expects to generate new records of the dust feedback cycle and the microbial decomposition feedback cycle in the poorly studied Indian sector of the Southern Ocean. Expected outcomes include new datasets to test climate models, and a new method to detect temperature-driven changes in microbial decomposition. This should lead to significant benefits including more accurate estimates of how much carbon humanity can safely emit, and the science to inform whether Australia should adopt ocean fertilisation as a strategy to combat climate change. Read moreRead less
Discovery Early Career Researcher Award - Grant ID: DE220101017
Funder
Australian Research Council
Funding Amount
$456,000.00
Summary
Assessing the vulnerability of East Antarctica to future warming. This DECRA aims to address major gaps in our understanding of how the Antarctic Ice Sheet will respond to climate change, by enabling critical insights on its sensitivity to past climate warming. The project will apply a suite of geochemical approaches to determine – for East Antarctica’s most vulnerable basin – the extent of ice-sheet loss during past warming, and the impact of glacial meltwater on biological productivity and Sou ....Assessing the vulnerability of East Antarctica to future warming. This DECRA aims to address major gaps in our understanding of how the Antarctic Ice Sheet will respond to climate change, by enabling critical insights on its sensitivity to past climate warming. The project will apply a suite of geochemical approaches to determine – for East Antarctica’s most vulnerable basin – the extent of ice-sheet loss during past warming, and the impact of glacial meltwater on biological productivity and Southern Ocean circulation. New knowledge of how the ice sheet and ocean respond to climate warming, will lead to more reliable projections of future sea-level rise and climate. The DECRA will benefit Australia by providing a strong evidence base for policy decision-making to manage the impact of sea-level rise.Read moreRead less
Using past climate extremes to guide infrastructure planning for the future. This project aims to analyse a 2000-year palaeoclimate record of single event and complex climate extremes to provide a long-term context for observed changes in climate extremes over recent decades. This project expects to generate new knowledge about long-term variability in the frequency and magnitude of climate extremes that occur on seasonal - decades time-scales. It also expects to provide information about com ....Using past climate extremes to guide infrastructure planning for the future. This project aims to analyse a 2000-year palaeoclimate record of single event and complex climate extremes to provide a long-term context for observed changes in climate extremes over recent decades. This project expects to generate new knowledge about long-term variability in the frequency and magnitude of climate extremes that occur on seasonal - decades time-scales. It also expects to provide information about complex extremes that involve multiple types of impacts (e.g. drought followed by flood, simultaneous drought and fire). Expected benefits of the project include improved understanding of climate extremes and improved risk estimates for the impacts of climate extremes on Australian government and industry infrastructure.Read moreRead less
Evolution. Morphodynamics and History of the Younghusband Peninsula. This project will examine the history and evolution of the Sir Richard-Younghusband Peninsula (SRYP) complex barrier in SA. The aims are to derive a understanding of how the influences of relative sea-level changes, neotectonics, and sediment supply, can produce remarkably different responses in barrier development. No complex barrier (i.e. foredune ridges in one portion, transgressive dunefields in another) has ever been compr ....Evolution. Morphodynamics and History of the Younghusband Peninsula. This project will examine the history and evolution of the Sir Richard-Younghusband Peninsula (SRYP) complex barrier in SA. The aims are to derive a understanding of how the influences of relative sea-level changes, neotectonics, and sediment supply, can produce remarkably different responses in barrier development. No complex barrier (i.e. foredune ridges in one portion, transgressive dunefields in another) has ever been comprehensively drilled, dated, modelled, or examined in the context of indigenous occupation and oral histories in Australia. The study provides excellent analogues for barrier and dune response, and shoreline translation to varying rates of sea level rise, paralleling pressures facing all coastlines today.Read moreRead less