Reengineering a dynamic vegetation model to explore the stability of Australian terrestrial carbon. Overseas models do not represent Australian biophysical processes well: our flora and fauna are unique and our soils are old and nutrient poor. In contrast, the National Carbon Accounting System (NCAS) is a world-class framework for estimating current carbon processes. By building NCAS expertise into an overseas model of soil and vegetation processes we can develop the capacity to increase our con ....Reengineering a dynamic vegetation model to explore the stability of Australian terrestrial carbon. Overseas models do not represent Australian biophysical processes well: our flora and fauna are unique and our soils are old and nutrient poor. In contrast, the National Carbon Accounting System (NCAS) is a world-class framework for estimating current carbon processes. By building NCAS expertise into an overseas model of soil and vegetation processes we can develop the capacity to increase our confidence in future projections of carbon and vegetation change. Our proposal, linking Universities, CSIRO and the Australian Greenhouse Office establishes a team that is internationally competitive. It will enhance local expertise and local model development to ensure national policy development is underpinned by world-class science.Read moreRead less
Uncoupling past salinity and temperature signals in the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool: implications for climate change in the Australian region. The tropical oceans and in particular the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool, immediately to Australia's north, play a key role in modulating global and Australian climate through El-Niño and related phenomena. Using a new microanalysis approach to analyse individual foraminifera from deep-sea cores, we will reconstruct past salinity and temperature variability within the ....Uncoupling past salinity and temperature signals in the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool: implications for climate change in the Australian region. The tropical oceans and in particular the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool, immediately to Australia's north, play a key role in modulating global and Australian climate through El-Niño and related phenomena. Using a new microanalysis approach to analyse individual foraminifera from deep-sea cores, we will reconstruct past salinity and temperature variability within the Warm Pool, and determine changing rainfall patterns and, ENSO and monsoon behaviour under climate conditions that lie outside modern records. This information is vital for understanding past climate and predicting the future intensity and frequency of El-Niño related drought and wet cycles in Australia.Read moreRead less
Sensitivity and Change in the Global Ocean Overturning. The dynamics of the global, deep overturning circulation in the oceans and the way this adjusts to increasing greenhouse forcing will be examined in order to improve our conceptual knowledge of the oceans and the accuracy of climate models. By understanding how the ocean responds to changing surface heat and freshwater fluxes, and particularly the global role of rapid changes in high-latitude seas, we aim to help refine estimates of climate ....Sensitivity and Change in the Global Ocean Overturning. The dynamics of the global, deep overturning circulation in the oceans and the way this adjusts to increasing greenhouse forcing will be examined in order to improve our conceptual knowledge of the oceans and the accuracy of climate models. By understanding how the ocean responds to changing surface heat and freshwater fluxes, and particularly the global role of rapid changes in high-latitude seas, we aim to help refine estimates of climate response times and the warming expected for a given increase in atmospheric greenhouse gases. These two important characteristics of the climate system underlie climate change policy decisions.Read moreRead less
Reconstructing pre-20th century rainfall, temperature and pressure for south-eastern Australia using palaeoclimate, documentary and early weather station data. South-eastern Australia is in the grip of a severe water crisis due to the worst drought in recorded history and increasing temperatures. This landmark project brings together a team of Australia's leading climate scientists, water managers and historians with the common goal of reconstructing south-eastern Australia's climate history. Th ....Reconstructing pre-20th century rainfall, temperature and pressure for south-eastern Australia using palaeoclimate, documentary and early weather station data. South-eastern Australia is in the grip of a severe water crisis due to the worst drought in recorded history and increasing temperatures. This landmark project brings together a team of Australia's leading climate scientists, water managers and historians with the common goal of reconstructing south-eastern Australia's climate history. The greatly extended record of annual rainfall and temperature variability will allow better planning for water storage and use, and improved testing of climate model simulations. Improving our understanding of the historical impacts of climate extremes on society will assist with planning for life in a hotter and drier future.Read moreRead less
High-resolution records of climatic change in Australia, both on land and at sea covering the last 20,000 years. This project aims to determine climatic changes in the Australian region since the deglaciation commenced 20,000 years ago at a century scale or better. The information is to be obtained from high-quality records of carefully selected lakes and deep-sea cores in the Australian region. The project will rely on high-resolution chronological records of environmental changes. Several geo ....High-resolution records of climatic change in Australia, both on land and at sea covering the last 20,000 years. This project aims to determine climatic changes in the Australian region since the deglaciation commenced 20,000 years ago at a century scale or better. The information is to be obtained from high-quality records of carefully selected lakes and deep-sea cores in the Australian region. The project will rely on high-resolution chronological records of environmental changes. Several geochemical and micropalaeontological techniques will be used to determine conditions in the lakes and ocean, and links to atmospheric conditions will be determined. This information is of relevance to the international climate community which aims at modelling high-quality and high-resolution records of climate change.Read moreRead less
The Indian Ocean Dipole, Australasian drought, and the great-earthquake cycle: Long-term perspectives for improved prediction. The protracted drought across Australia and Boxing Day 2004 earthquake in Sumatra defied prediction, and are causing incalculable environmental, economic, and social harm. Knowledge of past climate extremes will enhance our ability to predict climate change, and alleviate adverse affects for Australasian nations who miss-out in the future redistribution of life-giving mo ....The Indian Ocean Dipole, Australasian drought, and the great-earthquake cycle: Long-term perspectives for improved prediction. The protracted drought across Australia and Boxing Day 2004 earthquake in Sumatra defied prediction, and are causing incalculable environmental, economic, and social harm. Knowledge of past climate extremes will enhance our ability to predict climate change, and alleviate adverse affects for Australasian nations who miss-out in the future redistribution of life-giving moisture. Insights into the great-earthquake cycle will help fulfil Australia's responsibility to predict tsunamis, for the benefit of nations fringing Australasian seismotectonic zones. Development of improved techniques in palaeoclimatology, palaeoclimate modelling, and palaeoseismology will provide new collaborations and opportunities for research, training, and education.Read moreRead less
Quantifying the El Niño-Indian Ocean Dipole system using high-resolution coral palaeoclimate archives. The ocean surrounding Indonesia is the warmest on Earth and a major source of energy for global atmospheric circulation. Understanding the role of the Warm Pool in future climate change is of key importance, but highly controversial because the potential extent of its variability is largely unknown. To address this issue, this project will provide the first major geochemical investigation of ....Quantifying the El Niño-Indian Ocean Dipole system using high-resolution coral palaeoclimate archives. The ocean surrounding Indonesia is the warmest on Earth and a major source of energy for global atmospheric circulation. Understanding the role of the Warm Pool in future climate change is of key importance, but highly controversial because the potential extent of its variability is largely unknown. To address this issue, this project will provide the first major geochemical investigation of recently discovered ancient corals in Indonesia using state-of-the-art microanalytical techniques. Outcomes from these palaeoclimate records will advance our understanding of global climate change, rainfall variability related to the El Nino - Indian Ocean Dipole system, and Australian drought.Read moreRead less
MILLENIAL-SCALE INSTABILITY OF SEA LEVEL AND THE CLIMATE SYSTEM: NEW ANALYSIS OF CORAL TERRACES IN PAPUA NEW GUINEA. Northern hemisphere climates switched repeatedly and abruptly between cold and warm states during the ice ages. This unexplained finding poses uncertainties about future climate. The exact chronology of past sea level and climatic changes is a key to the problem: this project aims to establish precise chronology through re-analysis of coral terraces at Huon Peninsula, PNG. New U-s ....MILLENIAL-SCALE INSTABILITY OF SEA LEVEL AND THE CLIMATE SYSTEM: NEW ANALYSIS OF CORAL TERRACES IN PAPUA NEW GUINEA. Northern hemisphere climates switched repeatedly and abruptly between cold and warm states during the ice ages. This unexplained finding poses uncertainties about future climate. The exact chronology of past sea level and climatic changes is a key to the problem: this project aims to establish precise chronology through re-analysis of coral terraces at Huon Peninsula, PNG. New U-series dating methods will give an accurately-timed record of sea level changes, which will be tightly locked to marine-sediment records of climatic change, by using sharp changes in atmospheric radiocarbon as universal marker horizons.Read moreRead less
Do terrestrial processes intensify Australian droughts ? Australia's agricultural productivity is strongly affected by climate, climate variability and climate change. Recent climate changes in Western Australia forced adaptation strategies costing $500 million while the anomalously intense 2002 Murray-Darling Basin drought significantly affected agriculture. Any further intensification of droughts would affect Australia's rural economy. This proposal will assess the role of terrestrial processe ....Do terrestrial processes intensify Australian droughts ? Australia's agricultural productivity is strongly affected by climate, climate variability and climate change. Recent climate changes in Western Australia forced adaptation strategies costing $500 million while the anomalously intense 2002 Murray-Darling Basin drought significantly affected agriculture. Any further intensification of droughts would affect Australia's rural economy. This proposal will assess the role of terrestrial processes, linked to increasing CO2, in causing the drought intensification and declines in rainfall. This will provide knowledge that will guide the development of future environmental management strategies.Read moreRead less
DEEP SEA CORALS AS HIGH RESOLUTION RECORDERS OF SOUTHERN OCEAN NUTRIENT CHEMISTRY AND CIRCULATION. There is compelling evidence that the Earth has been warming dramatically since the end of the 19th century as a consequence of increasing atmospheric CO2. This study aims to understand the long-term role of the Southern Ocean as a 'store-house' for CO2, and its significance in controlling changes in the Earth's climate. We will use coral skeletons from the deep oceans as archives of ocean circu ....DEEP SEA CORALS AS HIGH RESOLUTION RECORDERS OF SOUTHERN OCEAN NUTRIENT CHEMISTRY AND CIRCULATION. There is compelling evidence that the Earth has been warming dramatically since the end of the 19th century as a consequence of increasing atmospheric CO2. This study aims to understand the long-term role of the Southern Ocean as a 'store-house' for CO2, and its significance in controlling changes in the Earth's climate. We will use coral skeletons from the deep oceans as archives of ocean circulation and nutrient levels. This information will help unravel how biological activity in the Southern Ocean has responded during previous episodes of climate change, and how this has controlled the levels of CO2 in the Earth's atmosphere. This will provide a better understanding of greenhouse warming and its effect on our future climate.Read moreRead less