ORCID Profile
0000-0003-0216-8942
Current Organisation
National Institute of Polar Research
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Publisher: Meteorological Society of Japan
Date: 2022
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 22-08-2022
DOI: 10.1002/QJ.4347
Abstract: The sparse distribution of the observing network over the high latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere reduces the accuracy of regional atmospheric circulation (re)analysis and weather forecasting. Using operational medium‐range ensemble forecasts, we compared the forecast skill among forecast centres regarding a midlatitude cyclone close to western Australia on 17 December 2017. At forecast day 4.5, a large ensemble spread in an upper‐level trough over western Australia, which had travelled from coastal Antarctica, caused large uncertainty and error in the predicted position of the midlatitude cyclone. Using an ensemble data assimilation system and the Atmospheric General Circulation Model for the Earth Simulator and the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter Experimental Ensemble Reanalysis version 2 (ALERA2), we conducted an operational forecast experiment to investigate the impact on ALERA2 and its forecast result of assimilation of 1‐hourly horizontal wind speed observational data from the PANSY radar located at the Japanese Syowa Station in Antarctica. An observing system experiment revealed that incorporation of PANSY radar data improved the reproducibility of atmospheric parameters in the troposphere and lower stratosphere as initial conditions for forecasting. To investigate the impact of PANSY radar data on forecast skill regarding the midlatitude cyclone, 63‐member ensemble forecast experiments were conducted using analysis data both with and without PANSY data as initial conditions. Comparison of the forecast results from the ensemble forecast experiments confirmed that incorporation of PANSY radar data reduced the ensemble spread and error in the upper troposphere over the Antarctic region as initial conditions, which enhanced the accuracy of the prediction of the positions of the upper‐level trough and surface cyclone over western Australia at forecast day 4.5. These experiments suggest that the PANSY radar represents an observing system suitable for continuous improvement in forecast skill of the atmospheric circulation in the Southern Hemisphere.
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 29-12-2020
DOI: 10.1029/2020JD033904
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 03-2021
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 22-03-2020
DOI: 10.1007/S00376-019-8231-X
Abstract: Cyclones with strong winds can make the Southern Ocean and the Antarctic a dangerous environment. Accurate weather forecasts are essential for safe shipping in the Southern Ocean and observational and logistical operations at Antarctic research stations. This study investigated the impact of additional radiosonde observations from Research Vessel “Shirase” over the Southern Ocean and Dome Fuji Station in Antarctica on reanalysis data and forecast experiments using an ensemble data assimilation system comprising the Atmospheric General Circulation Model for the Earth Simulator and the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter Experimental Ensemble Reanalysis, version 2. A 63-member ensemble forecast experiment was conducted focusing on an unusually strong Antarctic cyclonic event. Reanalysis data with (observing system experiment) and without (control) additional radiosonde data were used as initial values. The observing system experiment correctly captured the central pressure of the cyclone, which led to the reliable prediction of the strong winds and moisture transport near the coast. Conversely, the control experiment predicted lower wind speeds because it failed to forecast the central pressure of the cyclone adequately. Differences were found in cyclone predictions of operational forecast systems with and without assimilation of radiosonde observations from Dome Fuji Station.
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 28-05-2012
DOI: 10.1029/2012GL051850
Publisher: MDPI AG
Date: 03-10-2022
Abstract: Profiling wind information when using a small unmanned aerial vehicle (sUAV) is vital for atmospheric profiling and monitoring attitude during flight. Wind speed on an sUAV can be measured directly using ultrasonic anemometers or by calculating its attitude control information. The former method requires a relatively large payload for an onboard ultrasonic anemometer, while the latter requires real-time flight log data access, which depends on the UAV manufacturers. This study proposes the feasibility of a small thermal anemometer to measure wind speeds inexpensively using a small commercial quadcopter (DJI Mavic2: M2). A laboratory experiment demonstrated that the horizontal wind speed bias increased linearly with ascending sUAV speed. A smoke experiment during hovering revealed the downward wind bias (1.2 m s−1) at a 12-cm height above the M2 body. Field experiments in the ice-covered ocean demonstrated that the corrected wind speed agreed closely with the shipboard wind data observed by a calibrated ultrasonic anemometer. A dual-mount system comprising thermal anemometers was proposed to measure wind speed and direction.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 08-03-2021
DOI: 10.1038/S41467-021-21773-5
Abstract: The Antarctic Peninsula of West Antarctica was one of the most rapidly warming regions on the Earth during the second half of the 20th century. Changes in the atmospheric circulation associated with remote tropical climate variabilities have been considered as leading drivers of the change in surface conditions in the region. However, the impacts of climate variabilities over the mid-latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere on this Antarctic warming have yet to be quantified. Here, through observation analysis and model experiments, we reveal that increases in winter sea surface temperature (SST) in the Tasman Sea modify Southern Ocean storm tracks. This, in turn, induces warming over the Antarctic Peninsula via planetary waves triggered in the Tasman Sea. We show that atmospheric response to SST warming over the Tasman Sea, even in the absence of anomalous tropical SST forcing, deepens the Amundsen Sea Low, leading to warm advection over the Antarctic Peninsula.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 14-08-2018
DOI: 10.1038/S41598-018-30594-4
Abstract: Recent research has demonstrated that additional winter radiosonde observations in Arctic regions enhance the predictability of mid-latitude weather extremes by reducing uncertainty in the flow of localised tropopause polar vortices. The impacts of additional Arctic observations during summer are usually confined to high latitudes and they are difficult to realize at mid-latitudes because of the limited scale of localised tropopause polar vortices. However, in certain climatic states, the jet stream can intrude remarkably into the mid-latitudes, even in summer thus, additional Arctic observations might improve analysis validity and forecast skill for summer atmospheric circulations over the Northern Hemisphere. This study examined such cases that occurred in 2016 by focusing on the prediction of the intensity and track of tropical cyclones (TCs) over the North Atlantic and North Pacific, because TCs are representative of extreme weather in summer. The predictabilities of three TCs were found influenced by additional Arctic observations. Comparisons with ensemble reanalysis data revealed that large errors propagate from the data-sparse Arctic into the mid-latitudes, together with high-potential-vorticity air. Ensemble forecast experiments with different reanalysis data confirmed that additional Arctic observations sometimes improve the initial conditions of upper-level troposphere circulations.
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 22-01-2015
DOI: 10.1002/2014JD022234
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 03-06-2019
Abstract: Abstract. Constraints from ozone (O3) observations over oceans are needed in addition to those from terrestrial regions to fully understand global tropospheric chemistry and its impact on the climate. Here, we provide a large data set of ozone and carbon monoxide (CO) levels observed (for 11 666 and 10 681 h, respectively) over oceans. The data set is derived from observations made during 24 research cruise legs of R/V Mirai during 2012 to 2017, in the Southern, Indian, Pacific, and Arctic oceans, covering the region from 67∘ S to 75∘ N. The data are suitable for critical evaluation of the over-ocean distribution of ozone derived from global atmospheric chemistry models. We first give an overview of the statistics in the data set and highlight key features in terms of geographical distribution and air mass type. We then use the data set to evaluate ozone mixing ratio fields from the tropospheric chemistry reanalysis version 2 (TCR-2), produced by assimilating a suite of satellite observations of multiple species into a global atmospheric chemistry model, namely CHASER. For long-range transport of polluted air masses from continents to the oceans, during which the effects of forest fires and fossil fuel combustion were recognized, TCR-2 gave an excellent performance in reproducing the observed temporal variations and photochemical buildup of O3 when assessed from ΔO3∕ΔCO ratios. For clean marine conditions with low and stable CO mixing ratios, two focused analyses were performed. The first was in the Arctic ( 70∘ N) in September every year from 2013 to 2016 TCR-2 underpredicted O3 levels by 6.7 ppbv (21 %) on average. The observed vertical profiles from O3 soundings from R/V Mirai during September 2014 had less steep vertical gradients at low altitudes ( 850 hPa) than those obtained by TCR-2. This suggests the possibility of a more efficient descent of the O3-rich air from above than assumed in the models. For TCR-2 (CHASER), dry deposition on the Arctic ocean surface might also have been overestimated. In the second analysis, over the western Pacific equatorial region (125–165∘ E, 10∘ S to 25∘ N), the observed O3 level more frequently decreased to less than 10 ppbv in comparison to that obtained with TCR-2 and also those obtained in most of the Atmospheric Chemistry Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) model runs for the decade from 2000. These results imply loss processes that are unaccounted for in the models. We found that the model's positive bias positively correlated with the daytime residence times of air masses over a particular grid, namely 165–180∘ E and 15–30∘ N an additional loss rate of 0.25 ppbv h−1 in the grid best explained the gap. Halogen chemistry, which is commonly omitted from currently used models, might be active in this region and could have contributed to additional losses. Our open data set covering wide ocean regions is complementary to the Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report data set, which basically comprises ground-based observations and enables a fully global study of the behavior of O3.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 11-03-2017
Publisher: IOP Publishing
Date: 09-2015
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 09-12-2021
DOI: 10.1029/2021GL095295
Abstract: This study investigated the temperature and fraction of lower‐tropospheric ice cloud over Antarctica and the Southern Ocean (SO) using Cloud‐Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation satellite data. Over the SO, the maximum low‐level ice‐cloud fraction below 2 km is observed at cold temperatures ( −25°C) however, local maxima of low‐level ice‐cloud fraction are observed at temperatures −7.5°C ( −17.5°C) during summer (winter). High fractions of low‐level ice cloud observed at higher temperatures over near‐coastal Antarctic sea ice areas in summer, coincident with the highest chlorophyll‐ a concentrations, and over coastal Antarctic ice‐covered areas in winter, suggest that marine aerosols act as ice‐nucleating particles for ice‐cloud formation during summer and winter.
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 15-06-2018
Abstract: Abstract. Accelerated retreat of Arctic Ocean summertime sea ice has focused attention on the potential use of the Northern Sea Route (NSR), for which sea ice thickness (SIT) information is crucial for safe maritime navigation. This study evaluated the medium-range (lead time below 10 days) forecast of SIT distribution in the East Siberian Sea (ESS) in early summer (June–July) based on the TOPAZ4 ice–ocean data assimilation system. A comparison of the operational model SIT data with reliable SIT estimates (hindcast, satellite and in situ data) showed that the TOPAZ4 reanalysis qualitatively reproduces the tongue-like distribution of SIT in ESS in early summer and the seasonal variations. Pattern correlation analysis of the SIT forecast data over 3 years (2014–2016) reveals that the early summer SIT distribution is accurately predicted for a lead time of up to 3 days, but that the prediction accuracy drops abruptly after the fourth day, which is related to a dynamical process controlled by synoptic-scale atmospheric fluctuations. For longer lead times ( 4 days), the thermodynamic melting process takes over, which contributes to most of the remaining prediction accuracy. In July 2014, during which an ice-blocking incident occurred, relatively thick SIT ( ∼ 150 cm) was simulated over the ESS, which is consistent with the reduction in vessel speed. These results suggest that TOPAZ4 sea ice information has great potential for practical applications in summertime maritime navigation via the NSR.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 09-2019
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 14-03-2018
DOI: 10.1038/S41598-018-22500-9
Abstract: The long-term trend of extreme ocean waves in the emerging ice-free waters of the summer Arctic is studied using ERA-Interim wave reanalysis, with validation by two drifting wave buoys deployed in summer 2016. The 38-year-long reanalysis dataset reveals an increase in the expected largest significant wave height from 2.3 m to 3.1 m in the ice-free water from the Laptev to the Beaufort Seas during October. The trend is highly correlated with the expected increase in highest wind speed from 12.0 m/s to 14.2 m/s over the ice-free ocean, and less so with the extent of the ice-free water. Since the storms in this area did not strengthen throughout the analysis period, the increase in the expected largest significant wave height follows from the enhanced probability of storms in ice-free waters, which is pertinent to the estimation of extreme sea conditions along the Northern Sea Route.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 04-2022
DOI: 10.1016/J.ENVRES.2021.112468
Abstract: This study assessed the possibility of producing profiles of atmospheric parameters, including aerosol number concentration, using observations obtained by a conventional low-cost small rotary-wing Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS). A radiation shield for the meteorological sensor was developed to reduce the effects from heat exhaust from both the rotors and the body of the UAS and from solar radiation. Field experiments in northern Japan during winter confirmed that the continuous UAS-derived meteorological data obtained in the lower boundary layer were of quality equivalent to that of radiosonde observations in a cold environment (<- 20 °C), that is, better than other meteorological rotary-wing UASs. The continuous profiling of aerosols also demonstrated the capability for monitoring air quality below a very strong inversion layer during winter. Quality-controlled UAS meteorological profiles would be a potential observation data source for skillful numerical weather prediction, particularly in data-sparse regions such as the Arctic and Antarctic, contributing to the sustainable polar observing network.
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 21-08-2021
DOI: 10.1029/2021GL094646
Abstract: The relationship between cloud phase, ice‐nucleating particles (INPs), and ocean state is vital in climate system modeling. High wave conditions induced by the Arctic sea‐ice decline and intensified atmospheric forcing over the ice‐free ocean increase dynamical geochemical oceanic mixing and sea spray supply containing organic substances, which could act as INPs promoting formation of lower tropospheric ice‐containing clouds. Here, we show that the surface ocean state regulates INP concentration and ice cloud presence in the boundary layer. Arctic research cruise data from the marginal ice zone in the Chukchi Sea in November 2018 revealed high number concentrations of INPs active greater than °C and ice‐containing clouds under high wave conditions. Chemical analysis revealed high contents of organic carbon and sea salt that coincided with the increased oceanic turbidity. The findings suggest that elevated levels of marine organics will contribute to modification of cloud phase from liquid droplets to ice crystals.
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 12-2014
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00125.1
Abstract: Predictability of sea ice concentrations (SICs) in the Barents Sea in early winter (November–December) is studied using canonical correlation analysis with atmospheric and ocean anomalies from the NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) data. It is found that the highest prediction skill for a single-predictor model is obtained from the 13-month lead subsurface temperature at 200-m depth (T200) and the in-phase meridional surface wind (Vsfc). T200 skillfully predicts SIC variability in 35% of the Barents Sea, mainly in the eastern side. The T200 for negative sea ice anomalies exhibits warm anomalies in the subsurface ocean temperature downstream of the Norwegian Atlantic Slope Current (NwASC) on a decadal time scale. The diagnostic analysis of NCEP CFSR data suggests that the subsurface temperature anomaly stored below the thermocline during summer reemerges in late autumn by atmospheric cooling and affects the sea ice. The subsurface temperature anomaly of the NwASC is advected from the North Atlantic subpolar gyre over ~3 years. Also, Vsfc skillfully predicts SIC variability in 32% of the Barents Sea, mainly in the western side. The Vsfc for the negative sea ice anomalies exhibits southerly wind anomalies Vsfc is related to the large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns from the subtropical North Atlantic to the Eurasian continent. This study suggests that both atmospheric and oceanic remote effects have a potential impact on the forecasting accuracy of SIC.
Publisher: Norwegian Polar Institute
Date: 08-10-2020
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 19-02-2016
Abstract: Two mesoscale convective events in the baiu frontal zone (BFZ) were documented, based on intensive atmospheric soundings and oceanic castings in the East China Sea during May 2011, in addition to continuous surface meteorological observations, satellite products, and objective analyses. These events occurred while the BFZ was nearly stagnant and a mesolow was deepening in the zone. Near-surface southerlies associated with the low-level jet transported a warm, humid air mass from south of the BFZ. Enhanced evaporation, which was mainly attributable to the high sea surface temperature of the Kuroshio, augmented the moisture content of the air mass and helped maintain a convectively unstable stratification in the lower troposphere around the BFZ.
Publisher: IOP Publishing
Date: 03-2017
Publisher: IOP Publishing
Date: 06-2021
Abstract: We investigate linear trends in Antarctic skin temperatures (temperatures from about the top millimeter of the surface) over the four seasons using ERA5 ensemble mean reanalysis data. During 1950–2020, statistically significant warming occurred over East and West Antarctica in spring, autumn and winter, and over the Antarctic Peninsula in autumn and winter. A surface energy budget analysis revealed that increases in downward longwave radiation related to increases in air temperature and total column integrated cloud had a key role in Antarctic surface warming. There were negative sea level pressure trends around the periphery of Antarctica throughout the year, and the associated circulation contributed to warm advection from the middle latitudes to West Antarctica and the Antarctic Peninsula. Over the interior of East Antarctica, increase in moisture advection from lower latitudes enhanced the low-level cloud cover. A two-dimensional parameter diagram showed that skin temperature trends for time segments longer than 30 years starting before 1960 exhibited statistically significant warming in autumn and winter in East and West Antarctica and the Antarctic Peninsula. In spring, West Antarctica also showed statistically significant warming for long segments. In summer, the Antarctic Peninsula had statistically significant warming trends for long segments and cooling trends for segments less than 30 years. For all the studied time intervals, when skin temperatures had statistically significant positive trends, increases in downward longwave radiation contributed more than 70% of the warming and vice versa. This result demonstrates that on all time and space scales, changes in downward longwave radiation associated with variations in air temperature and atmospheric moisture loading play a dominant role controlling skin temperatures.
Publisher: IOP Publishing
Date: 08-2014
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 18-07-2018
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 02-2017
DOI: 10.1002/2016JC012197
Publisher: MDPI AG
Date: 07-2020
Abstract: We investigated the accuracy of operational medium-range ensemble forecasts for 29 Atlantic hurricanes between 2007 and 2019. Upper-level troughs with strong wind promoted northward movement of hurricanes over the mid-latitudes. For hurricanes with upper-level troughs, relatively large errors in the prediction of troughs result in large ensemble spreads, which result in failure to forecast hurricane track. In contrast, for hurricanes without upper-level troughs, mean central position errors are relatively small in all operational forecasts because of the absence of upper-level strong wind around troughs over the mid-latitudes. Hurricane Irma in September 2017 was accompanied by upper-level strong wind around a trough errors and ensemble spreads for the predicted upper-level trough are small, contributing to smaller errors and small ensemble spreads in the predicted tracks of Irma. Our observing system experiment reveals that inclusion of additional Arctic radiosonde observation data obtained from research vessel Mirai in 2017 improves error and ensemble spread in upper-level trough with strong wind at initial time for forecast, increasing the accuracy of the forecast of the track of Irma in 2017.
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 18-10-2018
DOI: 10.1029/2018GL079037
Abstract: This study investigated the impact of radiosonde observations from the Southern Ocean obtained by the Australian R/V Aurora Australis on the ALERA2 experimental ensemble reanalysis data set and ensemble forecast experiment. An observing system experiment (OSE) that included additional ship‐launched radiosonde data captured the atmospheric structure over the Southern Ocean. ALERA2 without additional radiosondes had positive temperature biases exceeding 7 °C in the upper troposphere when low‐pressure cyclonic systems passed over the ship. The spread in the upper level was reduced by 15% in the OSE, which propagated downstream from the ship's position because of the sparse observing network over southern high latitudes. Comparison of two 63‐member ensemble forecast experiments initialized by ALERA2 and the OSE revealed that prediction of midlatitude cyclone tracks was improved by the realistic representation of upper‐level troughs in the OSE forecast. This confirms that additional radiosondes over the Southern Ocean reduce uncertainty and error in midlatitude cyclone forecasts.
Location: Japan
Start Date: 2013
End Date: 2015
Funder: Japan Society for the Promotion of Science
View Funded ActivityStart Date: 2019
End Date: 2021
Funder: Japan Society for the Promotion of Science
View Funded ActivityStart Date: 2020
End Date: 2022
Funder: Japan Society for the Promotion of Science
View Funded Activity