ORCID Profile
0000-0002-5336-8162
Current Organisation
University of South Australia
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Publisher: Wiley
Date: 06-2023
DOI: 10.1111/ASEJ.12301
Abstract: Real exchange rate (RER) misalignment, which is the deviation between the actual real exchange rate from its equilibrium, occurs frequently among developing countries. Studies have shown that RER misalignment may have negative economic implications, such as a decline in economic growth, exports, and export ersification and an increased risk of currency crises and political instability. Using quarterly data for 22 s le countries from 1990 to 2018, this paper investigates the impact of RER misalignment on business cycles in the Asia‐Pacific by employing a panel vector autoregression involving consumer price index (CPI) inflation, output gap, short‐term interest rates, and RER misalignment. We find that RER overvaluation may reduce CPI inflation and short‐term interest rates. We also find that the Asia‐Pacific region is highly heterogeneous in that the output gaps of some countries, particularly from the Southeast Asian region, are more susceptible to RER misalignment shocks.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 22-03-2022
DOI: 10.1111/RODE.12878
Abstract: This paper explores the impact of Chinese subsidy interventions in the upstream sector on the competitiveness of the downstream sector. In particular, the paper investigates the causal effect of Chinese subsidies on base metal products on the export competitiveness of downstream sectors in other major trading countries. To explore the impact of base metal subsidy interventions on the downstream sector of a trading partner, we exploit both temporal variation in subsidy interventions and base‐metal consumption by the downstream sector. Using a panel data for 137 sectors in 40 major trading partners of the Chinese economy, the results of the paper reveal that a one‐unit increase in Chinese subsidies decreases competitors’ exports by an average of 16.6%. This indicates that an increase in one standard deviation of Chinese subsidies in the base metals sector decreases exports in the other major economies by 0.17 percentage points. The findings of the paper reveal that the impacts of Chinese subsidy interventions are larger and statistically significant for the exports of developed countries and metal‐intensive users in the downstream sectors. Production relocation to China, absorption of larger inexpensive base metals input by domestic Chinese firms, and subsidy complementarity in the Chinese upstream and downstream sectors could be some of the potential drivers for the negative impact of Chinese subsidy interventions on the export performance of foreign downstream firms.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 25-10-2022
DOI: 10.1111/TWEC.13340
Abstract: This paper examines the effects of institutional factors and government policy responses on COVID‐19 infection cases. It applies the Random Effects (RE) and GMM (Generalised Method of Moments) estimation techniques to panel data to explore the relationship between COVID‐19 cases on the one hand and institutions and government policy responses on the other. The paper finds that the nature and timing of policy responses matter and that institutions play a crucial role in explaining observed infection cases across countries. The results also indicate that high population density and previous experience with infectious diseases are important factors in explaining infection cases across countries. One of the policy implications of our findings is the importance of timely policy intervention at the national level in reducing infection cases.
Publisher: Oxford University Press (OUP)
Date: 28-09-2021
DOI: 10.1093/OEP/GPZ059
Abstract: Real exchange rate (RER) misalignment, which is the deviation of the actual RER from its equilibrium, occurs frequently in developing countries. In this article, we show that civil conflict in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) can be influenced by RER misalignment. To do so, we construct an RER misalignment index whose variation is driven by shocks to each country’s RER fundamentals. Based on a panel of 35 countries from 1975 to 2006, we find that RER misalignment may increase the incidence of civil conflict in sub-Saharan Africa on average. Crucially, this effect is present even when rainfall and commodity price shocks—two widely acknowledged causes of civil conflict—are controlled for. Therefore, our article suggests that RER stabilization can foster political stability in the region.
Publisher: Informa UK Limited
Date: 15-06-2018
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
Date: 09-12-2021
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 11-2021
DOI: 10.1111/CWE.12398
Abstract: During the COVID‐19 pandemic, countries applied trade restrictions to insulate their domestic markets from the world market. However, these trade policies could have lified international market price fluctuations. This paper explores the effects of trade restrictions on international agricultural price volatility. A theoretical model is developed to quantify how trade policies lify the initial shock. Using panel data covering 71 countries from January 2020 to July 2021, we examine empirically the effects of trade policies on world agricultural price volatility. The results show that trade distortions further induced volatility of world agricultural prices by around 22 percent during the COVID‐19 pandemic. The multiplier effects are much more substantial in agricultural exporting countries than in importing countries. Large countries like China and the US could make significant contributions to stabilizing world prices by limiting the extent of unilateral trade policy interventions.
No related grants have been discovered for Dessie Tarko Ambaw.