ORCID Profile
0000-0002-8671-2994
Current Organisations
University of Melbourne
,
ETH Zurich
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Research Topics
In Research Link Australia (RLA), "Research Topics" refer to ANZSRC FOR and SEO codes. These topics are either sourced from ANZSRC FOR and SEO codes listed in researchers' related grants or generated by a large language model (LLM) based on their publications.
Top 5 Research Topics
ANZSRC Field of Research (FoR)
Atmospheric Sciences | Climatology (Incl. Palaeoclimatology) | Surfacewater Hydrology | Climate Change Processes | Meteorology | Water Resources Engineering | Curatorial and Related Studies | Curatorial Studies Not Elsewhere Classified | Conceptual Modelling | Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience | Civil Engineering | History: Australian | Physical Oceanography | Climatology (excl. Climate Change Processes) | Physical Oceanography | Surfacewater Hydrology | Cultural Studies Not Elsewhere Classified | Information Systems Management | Museum Studies | Applied Statistics | Terrestrial Ecology | Oceanography Not Elsewhere Classified | Atmospheric Sciences not elsewhere classified | Atmospheric Sciences Not Elsewhere Classified
ANZSRC Socio-Economic Objective (SEO)
Climate change | Climate variability | Global climate change adaptation measures | Climate Variability (excl. Social Impacts) | Climate Change Models | Weather | Effects of Climate Change and Variability on Australia (excl. Social Impacts) | Atmospheric Processes and Dynamics | Living resources (flora and fauna) | Environmental policy, legislation and standards not elsewhere classified | Atmospheric composition | Heritage not elsewhere classified | Land and water management | Expanding Knowledge in the Environmental Sciences | Expanding Knowledge in the Information and Computing Sciences | Urban Water Policy |
Related Links
Publications
Uncertainty in temperature projections reduced using carbon cycle and climate observations
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 26-05-2013
DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE1903
Detection and attribution of climate change: a regional perspective
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 03-2010
DOI: 10.1002/WCC.34
Abstract: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change fourth assessment report, published in 2007 came to a more confident assessment of the causes of global temperature change than previous reports and concluded that ‘it is likely that there has been significant anthropogenic warming over the past 50 years averaged over each continent except Antarctica.’ Since then, warming over Antarctica has also been attributed to human influence, and further evidence has accumulated attributing a much wider range of climate changes to human activities. Such changes are broadly consistent with theoretical understanding, and climate model simulations, of how the planet is expected to respond. This paper reviews this evidence from a regional perspective to reflect a growing interest in understanding the regional effects of climate change, which can differ markedly across the globe. We set out the methodological basis for detection and attribution and discuss the spatial scales on which it is possible to make robust attribution statements. We review the evidence showing significant human‐induced changes in regional temperatures, and for the effects of external forcings on changes in the hydrological cycle, the cryosphere, circulation changes, oceanic changes, and changes in extremes. We then discuss future challenges for the science of attribution. To better assess the pace of change, and to understand more about the regional changes to which societies need to adapt, we will need to refine our understanding of the effects of external forcing and internal variability. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. This article is categorized under: Paleoclimates and Current Trends Detection and Attribution
DECADAL VARIATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE CIRCULATION
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 07-1996
DOI: 10.1002/(SICI)1097-0088(199607)16:7<723::AID-JOC54>3.0.CO;2-6
Future Australian Severe Thunderstorm Environments. Part II: The Influence of a Strongly Warming Climate on Convective Environments
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 09-05-2014
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00426.1
Abstract: The influence of a warming climate on the occurrence of severe thunderstorm environments in Australia was explored using two global climate models: Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation Mark, version 3.6 (CSIRO Mk3.6), and the Cubic-Conformal Atmospheric Model (CCAM). These models have previously been evaluated and found to be capable of reproducing a useful climatology for the twentieth-century period (1980–2000). Analyzing the changes between the historical period and high warming climate scenarios for the period 2079–99 has allowed estimation of the potential convective future for the continent. Based on these simulations, significant increases to the frequency of severe thunderstorm environments will likely occur for northern and eastern Australia in a warmed climate. This change is a response to increasing convective available potential energy from higher continental moisture, particularly in proximity to warm sea surface temperatures. Despite decreases to the frequency of environments with high vertical wind shear, it appears unlikely that this will offset increases to thermodynamic energy. The change is most pronounced during the peak of the convective season, increasing its length and the frequency of severe thunderstorm environments therein, particularly over the eastern parts of the continent. The implications of this potential increase are significant, with the overall frequency of potential severe thunderstorm days per year likely to rise over the major population centers of the east coast by 14% for Brisbane, 22% for Melbourne, and 30% for Sydney. The limitations of this approach are then discussed in the context of ways to increase the confidence of predictions of future severe convection.
Preliminary investigation into the severe thunderstorm environment of Europe simulated by the Community Climate System Model 3
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 07-2009
The attribution question
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 25-08-2016
DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE3089
Uncertainties in runoff projections in southwestern Australian catchments using a global climate model with perturbed physics
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 10-2015
A multiregion assessment of observed changes in the areal extent of temperature and precipitation extremes
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 12-2015
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00753.1
Abstract: This study examines trends in the area affected by temperature and precipitation extremes across five large-scale regions using the climate extremes index (CEI) framework. Analyzing changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in terms of areal fraction provides information from a different perspective and can be useful for climate monitoring. Trends in five temperature and precipitation components are analyzed, calculated using a new method based on standard extreme indices. These indices, derived from daily meteorological station data, are obtained from two global land-based gridded extreme indices datasets. The four continental-scale regions of Europe, North America, Asia, and Australia are analyzed over the period from 1951 to 2010, where sufficient data coverage is available. These components are also computed for the entire Northern Hemisphere, providing the first CEI results at the hemispheric scale. Results show statistically significant increases in the percentage area experiencing much-above-average warm days and nights and much-below-average cool days and nights for all regions, with the exception of North America for maximum temperature extremes. Increases in the area affected by precipitation extremes are also found for the Northern Hemisphere regions, particularly Europe and North America.
Spatial and temporal agreement in climate model simulations of the interdecadal pacific oscillation
Publisher: IOP Publishing
Date: 30-03-2017
23. Southern Australia's warmest October on record: The role of ENSO and climate change
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 12-2016
Preface
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Date: 2013
Higher CO2 concentrations increase extreme event risk in a 1.5 °C world
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 11-06-2018
Assessment of the severe weather environment in North America simulated by a global climate model
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 10-2007
DOI: 10.1002/ASL.159
Introduction
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Date: 14-10-2013
Ready for IPCC-2001: A practical approach to a daunting task - An editorial comment
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 2000
Health co-benefits and the development of climate change mitigation policies in the European Union
Publisher: Informa UK Limited
Date: 14-11-2018
Gravity wave activity associated with tropical convection detected in TOGA COARE Sounding data
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 02-1996
DOI: 10.1029/96GL00023
Rapid microneedle fabrication by heating and photolithography.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 02-2019
DOI: 10.1016/J.IJPHARM.2019.118992
Abstract: Many fabrication methods for microneedle (MN) involve harsh conditions and long drying time. This study aims to fabricate a dissolving MN patch in a simple and efficient manner under mild conditions, using a combination of thermal and photo polymerisation. The MN patch was fabricated by pre-polymerisation of vinylpyrrolidone solution with heating followed by photolithography. The heating temperature and time of pre-polymer solution curing were optimized based on viscosity measurement. The MN properties including shape, size, skin penetration, dissolution, moisture absorption were determined. The fabricated MNs were sharp and consistent. The heated N-vinylpyrrolidone solution required less UV exposure time, thus reducing the total fabrication time. The percentage of MN penetration in human cadaver skin was more than 33.9%. The MN was dissolved within 1-2 min in water, or 40 min in saturated water vapor.
Quantifying uncertainty in future Southern Hemisphere circulation trends
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 15-12-2012
DOI: 10.1029/2012GL054158
A COMPARISON OF SOUTHERN-HEMISPHERE CIRCULATION STATISTICS BASED ON GFDL AND AUSTRALIAN ANALYSES
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 09-1987
The role of transient eddies in low-frequency zonal variations of the Southern Hemisphere circulation
Publisher: Stockholm University Press
Date: 1990
Predicting the response of seven Asian glaciers to future climate scenarios using a simple linear glacier model
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 11-03-2008
DOI: 10.1029/2007JD008997
Amplification of risks to water supply at 1.5°C and 2°C in drying climates: a case study for Melbourne, Australia
Publisher: IOP Publishing
Date: 08-2019
Abstract: Human-induced climate change poses a major threat to the reliable water supply in many highly populated regions. Here we combine hydrological and climate model simulations to evaluate risks to the water supply under projected shifts in the climate at the Paris Agreement warming levels. Modelling the primary surface water sources for Melbourne, Australia, we project that the risk of severe water supply shortage to the climate-dependent portion of the system increases substantially as global warming increases from 1.5 °C to 2.0 °C. Risks are further exacerbated by increases in water demand but substantially ameliorated by supply augmentation from desalination. We demonstrate that reductions in precipitation, rising temperature and growth in water demand combine to substantially lify the risk of severe water supply shortage under near-term global warming in the absence of a climate-independent supply. This risk lification is not as apparent in assessments based on meteorological drought alone. With the diminishing opportunity of meeting the 1.5 °C Paris target, our study highlights the need to accelerate greenhouse gas mitigation efforts to reduce risks to climate dependent water supply systems.
How geoengineering scenarios frame assumptions and create expectations
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 25-01-2018
Microclimate modelling at macro scales: a test of a general microclimate model integrated with gridded continental-scale soil and weather data
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 18-01-2014
A new approach to detection of anthropogenic temperature changes in the Australian region
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 06-2005
Australasian Temperature Reconstructions Spanning the Last Millennium
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 10-07-2016
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00781.1
Abstract: Multiproxy warm season (September–February) temperature reconstructions are presented for the combined land–ocean region of Australasia (0°–50°S, 110°E–180°) covering 1000–2001. Using between 2 (R2) and 28 (R28) paleoclimate records, four 1000-member ensemble reconstructions of regional temperature are developed using four statistical methods: principal component regression (PCR), composite plus scale (CPS), Bayesian hierarchical models (LNA), and pairwise comparison (PaiCo). The reconstructions are then compared with a three-member ensemble of GISS-E2-R climate model simulations and independent paleoclimate records. Decadal fluctuations in Australasian temperatures are remarkably similar between the four reconstruction methods. There are, however, differences in the litude of temperature variations between the different statistical methods and proxy networks. When the R28 network is used, the warmest 30-yr periods occur after 1950 in 77% of ensemble members over all methods. However, reconstructions based on only the longest records (R2 and R3 networks) indicate that single 30- and 10-yr periods of similar or slightly higher temperatures than in the late twentieth century may have occurred during the first half of the millennium. Regardless, the most recent instrumental temperatures (1985–2014) are above the 90th percentile of all 12 reconstruction ensembles (four reconstruction methods based on three proxy networks—R28, R3, and R2). The reconstructed twentieth-century warming cannot be explained by natural variability alone using GISS-E2-R. In this climate model, anthropogenic forcing is required to produce the rate and magnitude of post-1950 warming observed in the Australasian region. These paleoclimate results are consistent with other studies that attribute the post-1950 warming in Australian temperature records to increases in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations.
ROSSBY-WAVE PROPAGATION IN A BAROTROPIC ATMOSPHERE
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 03-1983
Influences of anthropogenic and oceanic forcing on recent climate change
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 02-1998
DOI: 10.1029/97GL03701
The Greenland Ice Sheet Response to Transient Climate Change
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 07-2011
Abstract: This study applies a multiphase, multiple-rheology, scalable, and extensible geofluid model to the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS). The model is driven by monthly atmospheric forcing from global climate model simulations. Novel features of the model, referred to as the scalable and extensible geofluid modeling system (SEGMENT-Ice), include using the full Navier–Stokes equations to account for nonlocal dynamic balance and its influence on ice flow, and a granular sliding layer between the bottom ice layer and the lithosphere layer to provide a mechanism for possible large-scale surges in a warmer future climate (granular basal layer is for certain specific regions, though). Monthly climate of SEGMENT-Ice allows an investigation of detailed features such as seasonal melt area extent (SME) over Greenland. The model reproduced reasonably well the annual maximum SME and total ice mass lost rate when compared observations from the Special Sensing Microwave Imager (SSM/I) and Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) over the past few decades. The SEGMENT-Ice simulations are driven by projections from two relatively high-resolution climate models, the NCAR Community Climate System Model, version 3 (CCSM3) and the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate 3.2, high-resolution version [MIROC3.2(hires)], under a realistic twenty-first-century greenhouse gas emission scenario. They suggest that the surface flow would be enhanced over the entire GrIS owing to a reduction of ice viscosity as the temperature increases, despite the small change in the ice surface topography over the interior of Greenland. With increased surface flow speed, strain heating induces more rapid heating in the ice at levels deeper than due to diffusion alone. Basal sliding, especially for granular sediments, provides an efficient mechanism for fast-glacier acceleration and enhanced mass loss. This mechanism, absent from other models, provides a rapid dynamic response to climate change. Net mass loss estimates from the new model should reach ~220 km3 yr−1 by 2100, significantly higher than estimates by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Report 4 (AR4) of ~50–100 km3 yr−1. By 2100, the perennial frozen surface area decreases up to ~60%, to ~7 × 105 km2, indicating a massive expansion of the ablation zone. Ice mass change patterns, particularly along the periphery, are very similar between the two climate models.
Attribution of recent temperature changes in the Australian region
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 02-2005
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-3265.1
Abstract: Variations of Australian-average mean temperature and diurnal temperature range over the twentieth century are investigated. The observed interannual variability of both is simulated reasonably well by a number of climate models, but they do not simulate the observed relationship between the two. Comparison of the observed warming and reduction in diurnal temperature range with climate model simulations shows that Australian temperature changes over the twentieth century were very unlikely to be due to natural climate variations alone. It is likely that there has been a significant contribution to the observed warming during the second half of the century from increasing atmospheric greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols.
Natural Disasters and Adaptation to Climate Change
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Date: 05-10-2013
Abstract: This volume presents eighteen case studies of natural disasters from Australia, Europe, North America and developing countries. By comparing the impacts, it seeks to identify what moves people to adapt, which adaptive activities succeed and which fail, and the underlying reasons, and the factors that determine when adaptation is required and when simply bearing the impact may be the more appropriate response. Much has been written about the theory of adaptation, and high-level, especially international, policy responses to climate change. This book aims to inform actual adaptation practice - what works, what does not, and why. It explores some of the lessons we can learn from past disasters and the adaptation that takes place after the event in preparation for the next. This volume will be especially useful for researchers and decision makers in policy and government concerned with climate change adaptation, emergency management, disaster risk reduction, environmental policy and planning.
Temperate Mountain Glacier-Melting Rates for the Period 2001–30: Estimates from Three Coupled GCM Simulations for the Greater Himalayas
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 06-2007
DOI: 10.1175/JAM2499.1
Abstract: The temperate glaciers in the greater Himalayas (GH) and the neighboring region contribute to the freshwater supply for almost one-half of the people on earth. Under global warming conditions, the GH glaciers may melt more rapidly than high-latitude glaciers, owing to the coincidence of the accumulation and ablation seasons in summer. Based on a first-order energy balance approach for glacier thermodynamics, the possible imposed additional melting rate was estimated from three climate simulations using the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Global Coupled Climate Model version 2.1 (GFDL-CM2.1), the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate 3.2, high-resolution version (MIROC3.2-hires), and the Met Office’s Third Hadley Centre Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere General Circulation Model (HadCM3). The simulations were carried out under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario. For the 30-yr period of 2001–30, all three CGCMs indicate that the glacial regions most sensitive to regional warming are the Tianshan–Altai Mountains to the north and Hengduan Mountains to the south. A map of potential melting was produced and was used to calculate the glacier-melting speed, yielding an additional spatially averaged glacier depth reduction of approximately 2 m for the 2001–30 period for those areas located below 4000 m. Averaged over the entire GH region, the melting rate is accelerating at about 5 mm yr−2. The general circulation over the GH region was found to have clear multidecadal variability, with the 30-yr period of 2001–30 likely to be wetter than the previous 30-yr period of 1971–2000. Considering the possible trend in precipitation from snow to rain, the actual melting rates of the GH glaciers may even be larger than those obtained in this research.
The ENSO-Australian rainfall teleconnection in reanalysis and CMIP5
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 06-05-2015
SOUTHERN-HEMISPHERE CIRCULATION FEATURES ASSOCIATED WITH ELNINO - SOUTHERN OSCILLATION EVENTS
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 11-1989
A climatology of Australian severe thunderstorm environments 1979-2011: inter-annual variability and ENSO influence
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 14-02-2014
DOI: 10.1002/JOC.3667
The weather@home regional climate modelling project for Australia and New Zealand
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 15-09-2016
Abstract: Abstract. A new climate modelling project has been developed for regional climate simulation and the attribution of weather and climate extremes over Australia and New Zealand. The project, known as weather@home Australia–New Zealand, uses public volunteers' home computers to run a moderate-resolution global atmospheric model with a nested regional model over the Australasian region. By harnessing the aggregated computing power of home computers, weather@home is able to generate an unprecedented number of simulations of possible weather under various climate scenarios. This combination of large ensemble sizes with high spatial resolution allows extreme events to be examined with well-constrained estimates of s ling uncertainty. This paper provides an overview of the weather@home Australia–New Zealand project, including initial evaluation of the regional model performance. The model is seen to be capable of resolving many climate features that are important for the Australian and New Zealand regions, including the influence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation on driving natural climate variability. To date, 75 model simulations of the historical climate have been successfully integrated over the period 1985–2014 in a time-slice manner. In addition, multi-thousand member ensembles have also been generated for the years 2013, 2014 and 2015 under climate scenarios with and without the effect of human influences. All data generated by the project are freely available to the broader research community.
Detection of anthropogenic climate change using an atmospheric GCM
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 06-06-2001
Non-stationarity in daily and sub-daily intense rainfall - Part 1: Sydney, Australia
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 19-08-2011
DOI: 10.5194/NHESS-11-2263-2011
Abstract: Abstract. This study was driven by a need to clarify how variations in climate might affect intense rainfall and the potential for flooding. Sub-daily durations are of particular interest for urban applications. Worldwide, few such observation-based studies exist, which is mainly due to limitations in data. While there are still large discrepancies between precipitation data sets from observations and models, both show that there is a tendency for moist regions to become wetter and for dry regions to become drier. However, changes in extreme conditions may show the opposite sign to those in average conditions. Where changes in observed intense precipitation have been studied, this has typically been for daily durations or longer. The purpose of this two-part study is to examine daily and sub-daily rainfall extremes for evidence of non-stationarity. Here the problem was addressed by supplementing one long record (Part 1) by a set of shorter records for a 30-yr concurrent period (Part 2). Variations in frequency and magnitude of rainfall extremes across durations from 6 min to 72 h were assessed using data from sites in the south-east of Australia. For the analyses presented in this paper, a peaks-over-threshold approach was chosen since it allows investigating changes in frequency as well as magnitude. Non-parametric approaches were used to assess changes in frequency, magnitude, and quantile estimates as well as the statistical significance of changes for one station (Sydney Observatory Hill) for the period 1921 to 2005. Deviations from the long-term average vary with season, duration, and threshold. The effects of climate variations are most readily detected for the highest thresholds. Deviations from the long-term average tend to be larger for frequencies than for magnitudes, and changes in frequency and magnitude may have opposite signs. Investigations presented in this paper show that variations in frequency and magnitude of events at daily durations are a poor indicator of changes at sub-daily durations. Studies like the one presented here should be undertaken for other regions to allow the identification of regions with significant increase/decrease in intense rainfall, whether there are common features with regards to duration and season exhibiting most significant changes (which in turn could lead to establishing a theoretical framework), and assist in validation of projections of rainfall extremes.
The Political Economy of Health Co-Benefits: Embedding Health in the Climate Change Agenda
Publisher: MDPI AG
Date: 04-04-2018
NORTHERN HEMISPHERE TEMPERATURE TRENDS - A POSSIBLE GREENHOUSE GAS EFFECT
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 05-1989
A multiregion model evaluation and attribution study of historical changes in the area affected by temperature and precipitation extremes
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 03-11-2016
Abstract: The skill of eight climate models in simulating the variability and trends in the observed areal extent of daily temperature and precipitation extremes is evaluated across five large-scale regions, using the climate extremes index (CEI) framework. Focusing on Europe, North America, Asia, Australia, and the Northern Hemisphere, results show that overall the models are generally able to simulate the decadal variability and trends of the observed temperature and precipitation components over the period 1951–2005. Climate models are able to reproduce observed increasing trends in the area experiencing warm maximum and minimum temperature extremes, as well as, to a lesser extent, increasing trends in the areas experiencing an extreme contribution of heavy precipitation to total annual precipitation for the Northern Hemisphere regions. Using simulations performed under different radiative forcing scenarios, the causes of simulated and observed trends are investigated. A clear anthropogenic signal is found in the trends in the maximum and minimum temperature components for all regions. In North America, a strong anthropogenically forced trend in the maximum temperature component is simulated despite no significant trend in the gridded observations, although a trend is detected in a reanalysis product. A distinct anthropogenic influence is also found for trends in the area affected by a much-above-average contribution of heavy precipitation to annual precipitation totals for Europe in a majority of models and to varying degrees in other Northern Hemisphere regions. However, observed trends in the area experiencing extreme total annual precipitation and extreme number of wet and dry days are not reproduced by climate models under any forcing scenario.
Climate Change Detection and Attribution: Beyond Mean Temperature Signals
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 15-10-2006
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI3900.1
Abstract: A significant influence of anthropogenic forcing has been detected in global- and continental-scale surface temperature, temperature of the free atmosphere, and global ocean heat uptake. This paper reviews outstanding issues in the detection of climate change and attribution to causes. The detection of changes in variables other than temperature, on regional scales and in climate extremes, is important for evaluating model simulations of changes in societally relevant scales and variables. For ex le, sea level pressure changes are detectable but are significantly stronger in observations than the changes simulated in climate models, raising questions about simulated changes in climate dynamics. Application of detection and attribution methods to ocean data focusing not only on heat storage but also on the penetration of the anthropogenic signal into the ocean interior, and its effect on global water masses, helps to increase confidence in simulated large-scale changes in the ocean. To evaluate climate change signals with smaller spatial and temporal scales, improved and more densely s led data are needed in both the atmosphere and ocean. Also, the problem of how model-simulated climate extremes can be compared to station-based observations needs to be addressed.
A multirheology ice model: Formulation and application to the Greenland ice sheet
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 09-03-2011
DOI: 10.1029/2010JD014855
Future Australian Severe Thunderstorm Environments. Part I: A Novel Evaluation and Climatology of Convective Parameters from Two Climate Models for the Late Twentieth Century
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 09-05-2014
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00425.1
Abstract: The influence of a warming climate on the occurrence of severe thunderstorms over Australia is, as yet, poorly understood. Based on methods used in the development of a climatology of observed severe thunderstorm environments over the continent, two climate models [Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation Mark, version 3.6 (CSIRO Mk3.6) and the Cubic-Conformal Atmospheric Model (CCAM)] have been used to produce simulated climatologies of ingredients and environments favorable to severe thunderstorms for the late twentieth century (1980–2000). A novel evaluation of these model climatologies against data from both the ECMWF Interim Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) and reports of severe thunderstorms from observers is used to analyze the capability of the models to represent convective environments in the current climate. This evaluation examines the representation of thunderstorm-favorable environments in terms of their frequency, seasonal cycle, and spatial distribution, while presenting a framework for future evaluations of climate model convective parameters. Both models showed the capability to explain at least 75% of the spatial variance in both vertical wind shear and convective available potential energy (CAPE). CSIRO Mk3.6 struggled to either represent the diurnal cycle over a large portion of the continent or resolve the annual cycle, while in contrast CCAM showed a tendency to underestimate CAPE and 0–6-km bulk magnitude vertical wind shear (S06). While spatial resolution likely contributes to rendering of features such as coastal moisture and significant topography, the distribution of severe thunderstorm environments is found to have greater sensitivity to model biases. This highlights the need for a consistent approach to evaluating convective parameters and severe thunderstorm environments in present-day climate: an ex le of which is presented here.
Inertia-gravity waves observed in the lower stratosphere over Macquarie Island
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 03-2000
Comparison of glacier‐inferred temperatures with observations and climate model simulations
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 12-2006
DOI: 10.1029/2006GL027856
Extraordinary heat during the 1930s US Dust Bowl and associated large-scale conditions
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 08-04-2015
Evaluating global climate responses to different forcings using simple indices
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 23-08-2012
DOI: 10.1029/2012GL052667
The Roles of Climate Change and El Niño in the Record Low Rainfall in October 2015 in Tasmania, Australia
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 12-2016
Approximating uncertainty of annual runoff and reservoir yield using stochastic replicates of global climate model data
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 08-04-2015
DOI: 10.5194/HESS-19-1615-2015
Abstract: Abstract. Two key sources of uncertainty in projections of future runoff for climate change impact assessments are uncertainty between global climate models (GCMs) and within a GCM. Within-GCM uncertainty is the variability in GCM output that occurs when running a scenario multiple times but each run has slightly different, but equally plausible, initial conditions. The limited number of runs available for each GCM and scenario combination within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) and phase 5 (CMIP5) data sets, limits the assessment of within-GCM uncertainty. In this second of two companion papers, the primary aim is to present a proof-of-concept approximation of within-GCM uncertainty for monthly precipitation and temperature projections and to assess the impact of within-GCM uncertainty on modelled runoff for climate change impact assessments. A secondary aim is to assess the impact of between-GCM uncertainty on modelled runoff. Here we approximate within-GCM uncertainty by developing non-stationary stochastic replicates of GCM monthly precipitation and temperature data. These replicates are input to an off-line hydrologic model to assess the impact of within-GCM uncertainty on projected annual runoff and reservoir yield. We adopt stochastic replicates of available GCM runs to approximate within-GCM uncertainty because large ensembles, hundreds of runs, for a given GCM and scenario are unavailable, other than the Climateprediction.net data set for the Hadley Centre GCM. To date within-GCM uncertainty has received little attention in the hydrologic climate change impact literature and this analysis provides an approximation of the uncertainty in projected runoff, and reservoir yield, due to within- and between-GCM uncertainty of precipitation and temperature projections. In the companion paper, McMahon et al. (2015) sought to reduce between-GCM uncertainty by removing poorly performing GCMs, resulting in a selection of five better performing GCMs from CMIP3 for use in this paper. Here we present within- and between-GCM uncertainty results in mean annual precipitation (MAP), mean annual temperature (MAT), mean annual runoff (MAR), the standard deviation of annual precipitation (SDP), standard deviation of runoff (SDR) and reservoir yield for five CMIP3 GCMs at 17 worldwide catchments. Based on 100 stochastic replicates of each GCM run at each catchment, within-GCM uncertainty was assessed in relative form as the standard deviation expressed as a percentage of the mean of the 100 replicate values of each variable. The average relative within-GCM uncertainties from the 17 catchments and 5 GCMs for 2015–2044 (A1B) were MAP 4.2%, SDP 14.2%, MAT 0.7%, MAR 10.1% and SDR 17.6%. The Gould–Dincer Gamma (G-DG) procedure was applied to each annual runoff time series for hypothetical reservoir capacities of 1 × MAR and 3 × MAR and the average uncertainties in reservoir yield due to within-GCM uncertainty from the 17 catchments and 5 GCMs were 25.1% (1 × MAR) and 11.9% (3 × MAR). Our approximation of within-GCM uncertainty is expected to be an underestimate due to not replicating the GCM trend. However, our results indicate that within-GCM uncertainty is important when interpreting climate change impact assessments. Approximately 95% of values of MAP, SDP, MAT, MAR, SDR and reservoir yield from 1 × MAR or 3 × MAR capacity reservoirs are expected to fall within twice their respective relative uncertainty (standard deviation/mean). Within-GCM uncertainty has significant implications for interpreting climate change impact assessments that report future changes within our range of uncertainty for a given variable – these projected changes may be due solely to within-GCM uncertainty. Since within-GCM variability is lified from precipitation to runoff and then to reservoir yield, climate change impact assessments that do not take into account within-GCM uncertainty risk providing water resources management decision makers with a sense of certainty that is unjustified.
An example of fingerprint detection of greenhouse climate change
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 07-1994
DOI: 10.1007/BF00210339
The effects of climate extremes on global agricultural yields
Publisher: IOP Publishing
Date: 05-2019
Abstract: Climate extremes, such as droughts or heat waves, can lead to harvest failures and threaten the livelihoods of agricultural producers and the food security of communities worldwide. Improving our understanding of their impacts on crop yields is crucial to enhance the resilience of the global food system. This study analyses, to our knowledge for the first time, the impacts of climate extremes on yield anomalies of maize, soybeans, rice and spring wheat at the global scale using sub-national yield data and applying a machine-learning algorithm. We find that growing season climate factors—including mean climate as well as climate extremes—explain 20%–49% of the variance of yield anomalies (the range describes the differences between crop types), with 18%–43% of the explained variance attributable to climate extremes, depending on crop type. Temperature-related extremes show a stronger association with yield anomalies than precipitation-related factors, while irrigation partly mitigates negative effects of high temperature extremes. We developed a composite indicator to identify hotspot regions that are critical for global production and particularly susceptible to the effects of climate extremes. These regions include North America for maize, spring wheat and soy production, Asia in the case of maize and rice production as well as Europe for spring wheat production. Our study highlights the importance of considering climate extremes for agricultural predictions and adaptation planning and provides an overview of critical regions that are most susceptible to variations in growing season climate and climate extremes.
Detection and attribution of climate change effects on tropical cyclones
Publisher: Springer US
Date: 21-08-2009
Tornado outbreaks associated with landfalling hurricanes in the North Atlantic Basin: 1954-2004
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 14-03-2007
Anthropogenic warming of central England temperature
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 18-09-2006
DOI: 10.1002/ASL.136
The impact of base-level analyses on stratospheric circulation statistics for the Southern Hemisphere
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 1989
DOI: 10.1007/BF00874454
Teleconnection stationarity, variability and trends of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) during the last millennium
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 30-11-2017
Early emergence in a butterfly causally linked to anthropogenic warming
Publisher: The Royal Society
Date: 17-03-2010
Abstract: There is strong correlative evidence that human-induced climate warming is contributing to changes in the timing of natural events. Firm attribution, however, requires cause-and-effect links between observed climate change and altered phenology, together with statistical confidence that observed regional climate change is anthropogenic. We provide evidence for phenological shifts in the butterfly Heteronympha merope in response to regional warming in the southeast Australian city of Melbourne. The mean emergence date for H. merope has shifted −1.5 days per decade over a 65-year period with a concurrent increase in local air temperatures of approximately 0.16°C per decade. We used a physiologically based model of climatic influences on development, together with statistical analyses of climate data and global climate model projections, to attribute the response of H. merope to anthropogenic warming. Such mechanistic analyses of phenological responses to climate improve our ability to forecast future climate change impacts on bio ersity.
The sensitivity of Australian fire danger to climate change
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 2001
CLIMATE CHANGE Human-induced rainfall changes
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 13-07-2014
DOI: 10.1038/NGEO2207
Understanding the role of sea surface temperature-forcing for variability in global temperature and precipitation extremes
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 09-2018
Is the choice of statistical paradigm critical in extreme event attribution studies?
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 28-08-2017
Decadal Prediction
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 10-2009
Detection of a Human Influence on North American Climate
Publisher: American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
Date: 14-11-2003
Abstract: Several indices of large-scale patterns of surface temperature variation were used to investigate climate change in North America over the 20th century. The observed variability of these indices was simulated well by a number of climate models. Comparison of index trends in observations and model simulations shows that North American temperature changes from 1950 to 1999 were unlikely to be due to natural climate variation alone. Observed trends over this period are consistent with simulations that include anthropogenic forcing from increasing atmospheric greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols. However, most of the observed warming from 1900 to 1949 was likely due to natural climate variation.
Climate extremes in Europe at 1.5 and 2 degrees of global warming
Publisher: IOP Publishing
Date: 11-2017
Diurnal temperature range as an index of global climate change during the twentieth century
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 07-2004
DOI: 10.1029/2004GL019998
Introductory comments: Special issue on regional climate variability and change
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 06-2005
Australian climate extremes at 1.5°C and 2°C of global warming
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 15-05-2017
DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE3296
Identifying global climate change using simple indices
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 06-2001
DOI: 10.1029/2000GL011925
A Tripole Index for the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 05-03-2015
Solar UV Forecasts
Publisher: SAGE Publications
Date: 26-07-2006
Abstract: This study examined the effectiveness of solar UV forecasts and supporting communications in assisting adults to protect themselves from excessive weekend sun exposure. The study was conducted in Australia, where 557 adult participants with workplace e-mail and Internet access were randomly allocated to one of three weather forecast conditions: standard forecast (no UV), standard forecast + UV, standard forecast + UV + sun-protection messages. From late spring through summer and early autumn, they were e-mailed weekend weather forecasts late in the working week. Each Monday they were e-mailed a prompt to complete a Web-based questionnaire to report sun-related behavior and any sunburn experienced during the previous weekend. There were no significant differences between weather forecast conditions in reported hat use, sunscreen use, sun avoidance, or sunburn. Results indicate that provision of solar-UV forecasts in weather forecasts did not promote markedly enhanced personal sun-protection practices among the adults surveyed.
Consistent trends in a modified climate extremes index in the United States, Europe, and Australia
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 10-02-2014
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00783.1
Abstract: The utility of a combined modified climate extremes index (mCEI) is presented for monitoring coherent trends in multiple types of climate extremes across large regions. Its usefulness lies in its ability to distill complex spatiotemporal fields into a simple, flexible nonparametric index. Two versions of the mCEI are computed that incorporate changes in several annual- or daily-scale temperature-related and moisture-related extremes. Applying data from the contiguous United States, Europe, and Australia detects consistent and statistically significant increases in the spatial prevalence of climate extremes from 1950 to 2012. All three continental-scale regions show increasingly widespread warm annual- and daily-scale minimum and maximum temperature extremes, a decreasing spatial extent of cool annual- and daily-scale minimum and maximum temperature extremes, and increasing areas where the proportion of annual total precipitation falls on heavy-rain days. There were no statistically significant trends toward more widespread, annual-scale drought or moisture surplus in any region. The dependence of annual extremes on the frequency of daily-scale extremes is highlighted by the strong covariations between annual- and daily-scale extremes in all regions. By the nature of construction of the combined indices, the differences in the trends of the mCEI and daily-scale mCEI (dmCEI) suggest that extremes in more areas are changing primarily because of a shift of temperature and daily rainfall distributions toward warm extremes and heavy-rainfall extremes.
The contribution of anthropogenic forcing to the Adelaide and Melbourne heatwaves of January 2014
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 12-2015
AN INVESTIGATION INTO THE CAUSES OF STRATOSPHERIC OZONE LOSS IN THE SOUTHERN AUSTRALASIAN REGION
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 24-07-1992
DOI: 10.1029/92GL01443
LONG-TERM WINTER TOTAL OZONE CHANGES AT MACQUARIE-ISLAND
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 24-07-1992
DOI: 10.1029/92GL01444
The steady, linear response of the stratosphere to tropospheric forcing
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 07-1983
Progress during TOGA in understanding and modeling global teleconnections associated with tropical sea surface temperatures
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 29-06-1998
DOI: 10.1029/97JC01444
Simple indices of global climate variability and change: Part I - variability and correlation structure
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 03-2003
Identifying coherent patterns of environmental change between multiple, multivariate records: an application to four 1000-year diatom records from Victoria, Australia
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 07-2015
Precipitation simulations using WRF as a nested regional climate model
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 10-2009
Abstract: This note examines the sensitivity of simulated U.S. warm-season precipitation in the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF), used as a nested regional climate model, to variations in model setup. Numerous options have been tested and a few of the more interesting and unexpected sensitivities are documented here. Specifically, the impacts of changes in convective and land surface parameterizations, nest feedbacks, sea surface temperature, and WRF version on mean precipitation are evaluated in 4-month-long simulations. Running the model over an entire season has brought to light some issues that are not otherwise apparent in shorter, weather forecast–type simulations, emphasizing the need for careful scrutiny of output from any model simulation. After substantial testing, a reasonable model setup was found that produced a definite improvement in the climatological characteristics of precipitation over that from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction–National Center for Atmospheric Research global reanalysis, the dataset used for WRF initial and boundary conditions in this analysis.
The timing of anthropogenic emergence in simulated climate extremes
Publisher: IOP Publishing
Date: 09-2015
Simple indices of global climate variability and change Part II: attribution of climate change during the twentieth century
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 19-05-2004
Climate Change and El Niño Increase Likelihood of Indonesian Heat and Drought
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 12-2016
Anthropogenic contributions to Australia's record summer temperatures of 2013
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 23-07-2013
DOI: 10.1002/GRL.50673
Mudslide‐caused ecosystem degradation following Wenchuan earthquake 2008
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 03-2009
DOI: 10.1029/2008GL036702
Evolution of Antarctic ozone in September-December predicted by CCMVal-2 model simulations for the 21st century
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 29-04-2013
Abstract: Abstract. Chemistry-Climate Model Validation phase 2 (CCMVal-2) model simulations are used to analyze Antarctic ozone increases in 2000–2100 during local spring and early summer, both vertically integrated and at several pressure levels in the lower stratosphere. Multi-model median trends of monthly zonal mean total ozone column (TOC), ozone volume mixing ratio (VMR), wind speed and temperature poleward of 60° S are investigated. Median values are used to account for large variability in models, and the associated uncertainty is calculated using a bootstrapping technique. According to the trend derived from the twelve CCMVal-2 models selected, Antarctic TOC will not return to a 1965 baseline, an average of 1960–1969 values, by the end of the 21st century in September–November, but will return in ~2080 in December. The speed of December ozone depletion before 2000 was slower compared to spring months, and thus the decadal rate of December TOC increase after 2000 is also slower. Projected trends in December ozone VMR at 20–100 hPa show a much slower rate of ozone recovery, particularly at 50–70 hPa, than for spring months. Trends in temperature and winds at 20–150 hPa are also analyzed in order to attribute the projected slow increase of December ozone and to investigate future changes in the Antarctic atmosphere in general, including some aspects of the polar vortex breakup.
On the long-term context of the 1997-2009 'Big Dry' in South-Eastern Australia: Insights from a 206-year multi-proxy rainfall reconstruction
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 04-11-2012
Attribution of the record high Central England temperature of 2014 to anthropogenic influences
Publisher: IOP Publishing
Date: 30-04-2015
Non-stationarity in daily and sub-daily intense rainfall - Part 2: Regional assessment for sites in south-east Australia
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 19-08-2011
DOI: 10.5194/NHESS-11-2273-2011
Abstract: Abstract. Using data for a common period (1976–2005) for a set of 31 sites located in south-east Australia, variations in frequency and magnitude of intense rainfall events across durations from 6 min to 72 h were assessed. This study was driven by a need to clarify how variations in climate might affect intense rainfall and the potential for flooding. Sub-daily durations are of particular interest for urban applications. Worldwide, few such observation-based studies exist, which is mainly due to limitations in data. Analysis of seasonality in frequency and magnitude of events revealed considerable variation across the set of sites, implying different dominating rainfall-producing mechanisms and/or interactions with local topography. Both these factors are relevant when assessing the potential effects of climate variations on intense rainfall events. The set of sites was therefore split into groups ("north cluster" and "south cluster") according to the characteristics of intense rainfall events. There is a strong polarisation in the nature of changes found for the north cluster and south cluster. While sites in the north cluster typically exhibit decrease in frequency of events, particularly in autumn and at durations of 1 h and longer sites in the south cluster experience an increase in frequency of events, particularly for summer and sub-hourly durations. Non-stationarity found in historical records has the potential to significantly affect design rainfall estimates. An assessment of quantile estimates derived using a standard regionalisation technique and periods representative of record lengths available for practical applications show that such estimates may not be representative of long-term conditions, so alternative approaches need to be considered, particularly where short records are concerned. Additional rainfall information, in particular radar data, could be used for an in-depth spatial analysis of intense rainfall events.
Utilising temperature differences as constraints for estimating parameters in a simple climate model
Publisher: IOP Publishing
Date: 08-2010
Ozone and climate change
Publisher: American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
Date: 10-10-2003
The response of the Antarctic Oscillation to increasing and stabilized atmospheric CO2
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 15-05-2003
DOI: 10.1175/1520-0442-16.10.1525
Abstract: Recent results from greenhouse warming experiments, most of which follow the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) IS92a scenario, have shown that under increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration, the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) exhibits a positive trend. However, its response during the subsequent CO2 stabilization period has not been explored. In this study, it is shown that the upward trend of the AAO reverses during such a stabilization period. This evolution of an upward trend and a subsequent reversal is present in each ensemble of three greenhouse simulations using three versions of the CSIRO Mark 2 coupled climate model. The evolution is shown to be linked with that of surface temperature, which also displays a corresponding trend and reversal, incorporating the well-known feature of interhemispheric warming asymmetry with smaller warming in the Southern Hemisphere (smaller as latitude increases) than that in the Northern Hemisphere during the transient period, and vice versa during the stabilization period. These results indicate that once CO2 concentration stabilizes, reversal of the AAO trend established during the transient period is likely to be a robust feature, as it is underpinned by the likelihood that latitudinal warming differences will reduce or disappear. The implication is that climatic impacts associated with the AAO trend during the transient period may be reversible if CO2 stabilization is achieved.
Multi-century cool- and warm-season rainfall reconstructions for Australia's major climatic regions
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 30-11-2017
Abstract: Abstract. Australian seasonal rainfall is strongly affected by large-scale ocean–atmosphere climate influences. In this study, we exploit the links between these precipitation influences, regional rainfall variations, and palaeoclimate proxies in the region to reconstruct Australian regional rainfall between four and eight centuries into the past. We use an extensive network of palaeoclimate records from the Southern Hemisphere to reconstruct cool (April–September) and warm (October–March) season rainfall in eight natural resource management (NRM) regions spanning the Australian continent. Our bi-seasonal rainfall reconstruction aligns well with independent early documentary sources and existing reconstructions. Critically, this reconstruction allows us, for the first time, to place recent observations at a bi-seasonal temporal resolution into a pre-instrumental context, across the entire continent of Australia. We find that recent 30- and 50-year trends towards wetter conditions in tropical northern Australia are highly unusual in the multi-century context of our reconstruction. Recent cool-season drying trends in parts of southern Australia are very unusual, although not unprecedented, across the multi-century context. We also use our reconstruction to investigate the spatial and temporal extent of historical drought events. Our reconstruction reveals that the spatial extent and duration of the Millennium Drought (1997–2009) appears either very much below average or unprecedented in southern Australia over at least the last 400 years. Our reconstruction identifies a number of severe droughts over the past several centuries that vary widely in their spatial footprint, highlighting the high degree of ersity in historical droughts across the Australian continent. We document distinct characteristics of major droughts in terms of their spatial extent, duration, intensity, and seasonality. Compared to the three largest droughts in the instrumental period (Federation Drought, 1895–1903 World War II Drought, 1939–1945 and the Millennium Drought, 1997–2005), we find that the historically documented Settlement Drought (1790–1793), Sturt's Drought (1809–1830) and the Goyder Line Drought (1861–1866) actually had more regionalised patterns and reduced spatial extents. This seasonal rainfall reconstruction provides a new opportunity to understand Australian rainfall variability by contextualising severe droughts and recent trends in Australia.
SOUTHERN-HEMISPHERE TEMPERATURE TRENDS - A POSSIBLE GREENHOUSE GAS EFFECT
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 11-1987
A Regional Modeling Study of Climate Change Impacts on Warm-Season Precipitation in the Central United States
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 04-2011
Abstract: In this study, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is employed as a nested regional climate model to dynamically downscale output from the National Center for Atmospheric Research’s (NCAR’s) Community Climate System Model (CCSM) version 3 and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)–NCAR global reanalysis (NNRP). The latter is used for verification of late-twentieth-century climate simulations from the WRF. This analysis finds that the WRF is able to produce precipitation that is more realistic than that from its driving systems (the CCSM and NNRP). It also diagnoses potential issues with and differences between all of the simulations completed. Specifically, the magnitude of heavy 6-h average precipitation events, the frequency distribution, and the diurnal cycle of precipitation over the central United States are greatly improved. Projections from the WRF for late-twenty-first-century precipitation show decreases in average May–August (MJJA) precipitation, but increases in the intensity of both heavy precipitation events and rain in general when it does fall. A decrease in the number of 6-h periods with rainfall accounts for the overall decrease in average precipitation. The WRF also shows an increase in the frequency of very heavy to extreme 6-h average events, but a decrease in the frequency of all events lighter than those over the central United States. Overall, projections from this study suggest an increase in the frequency of both floods and droughts during the warm season in the central United States.
Transport out of the Antarctic polar vortex from a three-dimensional transport model
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 15-06-2002
DOI: 10.1029/2001JD000508
Similarities of the Deacon cell in the Southern Ocean and Ferrel cells in the atmosphere
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 1997
Abstract: The meridional circulation in the ocean and the atmosphere, when averaged over longitude and time at constant height, shows a number of cells. Most of these appear as direct circulations, with ascent in response to forcing which reduces the density. There are several indirect circulations, particularly the Deacon cell in the Southern Ocean and the Ferrel cells in the mid‐latitude atmosphere, which appear to act against the mean density‐gradient in regions of no apparent mean density‐forcing. When the zonal‐mean circulation is calculated in density coordinates, both the Deacon cell and the Ferrel cells disappear. A transformation of the zonal‐mean circulation as a function of height is used to give the residual mean circulation, which is remarkably similar to the zonal‐mean circulation in density coordinates in both the Southern Ocean and the atmosphere. This shows that the existence of the Deacon and Ferrel cells is the result of correlations of zonal variations of density and meridional flow, and not of zonal‐mean density‐forcing. Zonal variations associated with the time‐mean eddies in the Southern Ocean are the main contributors to the Deacon cell, while correlations in transient weather systems are the major factor leading to Ferrel cells.
EXAMPLES OF THE HORIZONTAL PROPAGATION OF QUASI-STATIONARY WAVES
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 09-1989
A revised U.S. Climate Extremes Index
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 15-05-2008
Abstract: A revised framework is presented that quantifies observed changes in the climate of the contiguous United States through analysis of a revised version of the U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI). The CEI is based on a set of climate extremes indicators that measure the fraction of the area of the United States experiencing extremes in monthly mean surface temperature, daily precipitation, and drought (or moisture surplus). In the revised CEI, auxiliary station data, including recently digitized pre-1948 data, are incorporated to extend it further back in time and to improve spatial coverage. The revised CEI is updated for the period from 1910 to the present in near–real time and is calculated for eight separate seasons, or periods. Results for the annual revised CEI are similar to those from the original CEI. Observations over the past decade continue to support the finding that the area experiencing much above-normal maximum and minimum temperatures in recent years has been on the rise, with infrequent occurrence of much below- normal mean maximum and minimum temperatures. Conversely, extremes in much below-normal mean maximum and minimum temperatures indicate a decline from about 1910 to 1930. An increasing trend in the area experiencing much above-normal proportion of heavy daily precipitation is observed from about 1950 to the present. A period with a much greater-than-normal number of days without precipitation is also noted from about 1910 to the mid-1930s. Warm extremes in mean maximum and minimum temperature observed during the summer and warm seasons show a more pronounced increasing trend since the mid-1970s. Results from the winter season show large variability in extremes and little evidence of a trend. The cold season CEI indicates an increase in extremes since the early 1970s yet has large multidecadal variability.
Evaluation of CMIP6 extended AMIP historical climate simulations with the ACCESS-AM2 model
Publisher: CSIRO Publishing
Date: 04-09-2020
DOI: 10.1071/ES19033
Abstract: The most recent version of the ACCESS-AM2 atmosphere-only climate model is introduced with results from the CMIP6 Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) experiments configured with two land-surface models: CABLE and JULES. AMIP simulations are required as part of the CMIP6 core experiments. They are forced by prescribed time-varying observed sea surface temperature and sea-ice variations as well as variations in natural and anthropogenic external forcings. We evaluate the performance of the two configurations using three historical realisations for each. Model biases are estimated both globally and for the Australian region. The model shows close agreement with observed interannual variations of global-mean temperature across the latitude range 65°N–65°S. This is also true for the land-only temperature for 65°N–65°S, and a more stringent test of the model is driven by specified observed sea surface temperatures. Patterns of mean precipitation are simulated reasonably well, although there are biases in the amount and distribution of precipitation, typical of longstanding problems in representing this aspect of the climate. Selected features of the atmospheric circulation are discussed, including air temperatures and wind speeds. For the Australian region, in addition to examining the climatological patterns of temperature and precipitation, important drivers of climate variability are reviewed: El Niño-Southern Oscillation, the Indian Ocean Dipole and the Southern Annular Mode. In general, the correlation patterns for precipitation simulated by ACCESS-AM2 are somewhat weaker than in observations, although the ensemble means show better agreement than in idual ensemble members. Overall, the two different land-surface schemes perform similarly. ACCESS-AM2 has reduced root mean square errors for both temperature and precipitation of around 15–20% at the global scale compared to the older CMIP5 versions of the model: ACCESS 1.0 and ACCESS 1.3.
Sensitivity of an ecological model to soil moisture simulations from two different hydrological models
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 08-2008
ATTRIBUTION OF EXCEPTIONAL MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE ANOMALIES SOUTH OF AUSTRALIA IN AUGUST 2014
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 12-2015
Assessment of precipitation and temperature data from CMIP3 global climate models for hydrologic simulation
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 21-01-2015
Abstract: Abstract. The objective of this paper is to identify better performing Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) global climate models (GCMs) that reproduce grid-scale climatological statistics of observed precipitation and temperature for input to hydrologic simulation over global land regions. Current assessments are aimed mainly at examining the performance of GCMs from a climatology perspective and not from a hydrology standpoint. The performance of each GCM in reproducing the precipitation and temperature statistics was ranked and better performing GCMs identified for later analyses. Observed global land surface precipitation and temperature data were drawn from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) 3.10 gridded data set and re-s led to the resolution of each GCM for comparison. Observed and GCM-based estimates of mean and standard deviation of annual precipitation, mean annual temperature, mean monthly precipitation and temperature and Köppen–Geiger climate type were compared. The main metrics for assessing GCM performance were the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) index and root mean square error (RMSE) between modelled and observed long-term statistics. This information combined with a literature review of the performance of the CMIP3 models identified the following better performing GCMs from a hydrologic perspective: HadCM3 (Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research), MIROCm (Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate) (Center for Climate System Research (The University of Tokyo), National Institute for Environmental Studies, and Frontier Research Center for Global Change), MIUB (Meteorological Institute of the University of Bonn, Meteorological Research Institute of KMA, and Model and Data group), MPI (Max Planck Institute for Meteorology) and MRI (Japan Meteorological Research Institute). The future response of these GCMs was found to be representative of the 44 GCM ensemble members which confirms that the selected GCMs are reasonably representative of the range of future GCM projections.
A brief evaluation of precipitation from the North American Regional Reanalysis
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 08-2007
DOI: 10.1175/JHM595.1
Abstract: Several aspects of the precipitation climatology from the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) are analyzed and compared with two other reanalyses and one set of gridded observations over a domain encompassing the United States. The spatial distribution, diurnal cycle, and annual cycle of precipitation are explored to establish the reliability of the reanalyses and to judge their usefulness. While the NARR provides a much improved representation of precipitation over that of the other reanalyses examined, some inaccuracies are found and have been highlighted as a warning to potential users of the data.
The SPARC intercomparison of middle-atmosphere climatologies
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 03-2004
Evaluation of historical diurnal temperature range trends in CMIP5 models
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 15-11-2013
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00032.1
Abstract: Diurnal temperature range (DTR) is a useful index of climatic change in addition to mean temperature changes. Observational records indicate that DTR has decreased over the last 50 yr because of differential changes in minimum and maximum temperatures. However, modeled changes in DTR in previous climate model simulations of this period are smaller than those observed, primarily because of an overestimate of changes in maximum temperatures. This present study examines DTR trends using the latest generation of global climate models participating in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and utilizes the novel CMIP5 detection and attribution experimental design of variously forced historical simulations (natural-only, greenhouse gas–only, and all anthropogenic and natural forcings). Comparison of observed and modeled changes in DTR over the period of 1951–2005 again reveals that global DTR trends are lower in model simulations than observed across the 27-member multimodel ensemble analyzed here. Modeled DTR trends are similar for both experiments incorporating all forcings and for the historical experiment with greenhouse gases only, while no DTR trend is discernible in the naturally forced historical experiment. The persistent underestimate of DTR changes in this latest multimodel evaluation appears to be related to ubiquitous model deficiencies in cloud cover and land surface processes that impact the accurate simulation of regional minimum or maximum temperatures changes observed during this period. Different model processes are likely responsible for subdued simulated DTR trends over the various analyzed regions.
Lessons Learned for Adaptation to Climate Change
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Date: 14-10-2013
Proposome for transdermal delivery of tofacitinib
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 07-2020
Afterword: Floods, storms, fire and pestilence – Disaster risk in Australia during 2010–2011
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Date: 14-10-2013
Future climate change in the Southern Hemisphere: Competing effects of ozone and greenhouse gases
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 2011
DOI: 10.1029/2010GL045384
Increased likelihood of Brisbane G20 heat event due to anthropogenic climate change
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 12-2015
A protocol to articulate and quantify uncertainties in climate change detection and attribution
Publisher: Inter-Research Science Center
Date: 2000
DOI: 10.3354/CR016061
Atypical influence of the 2007 la niña on rainfall and temperature in southeastern Australia
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 07-2009
DOI: 10.1029/2009GL039026
Evaluation of the ACCESS - Chemistry-climate model for the Southern Hemisphere
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 29-02-2016
Abstract: Abstract. Chemistry–climate models are important tools for addressing interactions of composition and climate in the Earth system. In particular, they are used to assess the combined roles of greenhouse gases and ozone in Southern Hemisphere climate and weather. Here we present an evaluation of the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator – chemistry–climate model (ACCESS-CCM), focusing on the Southern Hemisphere and the Australian region. This model is used for the Australian contribution to the international Chemistry–Climate Model Initiative, which is soliciting hindcast, future projection and sensitivity simulations. The model simulates global total column ozone (TCO) distributions accurately, with a slight delay in the onset and recovery of springtime Antarctic ozone depletion, and consistently higher ozone values. However, October-averaged Antarctic TCO from 1960 to 2010 shows a similar amount of depletion compared to observations. Comparison with model precursors shows large improvements in the representation of the Southern Hemisphere stratosphere, especially in TCO concentrations. A significant innovation is seen in the evaluation of simulated vertical profiles of ozone and temperature with ozonesonde data from Australia, New Zealand and Antarctica from 38 to 90° S. Excess ozone concentrations (greater than 26 % at Davis and the South Pole during winter) and stratospheric cold biases (up to 10 K at the South Pole during summer and autumn) outside the period of perturbed springtime ozone depletion are seen during all seasons compared to ozonesondes. A disparity in the vertical location of ozone depletion is seen: centred around 100 hPa in ozonesonde data compared to above 50 hPa in the model. Analysis of vertical chlorine monoxide profiles indicates that colder Antarctic stratospheric temperatures (possibly due to reduced mid-latitude heat flux) are artificially enhancing polar stratospheric cloud formation at high altitudes. The model's inability to explicitly simulate a supercooled ternary solution may also explain the lack of depletion at lower altitudes. Analysis of the simulated Southern Annular Mode (SAM) index compares well with ERA-Interim data, an important metric for correct representation of Australian climate. Accompanying these modulations of the SAM, 50 hPa zonal wind differences between 2001–2010 and 1979–1998 show increasing zonal wind strength southward of 60° S during December for both the model simulations and ERA-Interim data. These model diagnostics show that the model reasonably captures the stratospheric ozone-driven chemistry–climate interactions important for Australian climate and weather while highlighting areas for future model development.
The spatial distribution of rainfall extremes and the influence of El Niño Southern Oscillation
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 12-2017
Attributing physical and biological impacts to anthropogenic climate change
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 05-2008
DOI: 10.1038/NATURE06937
Abstract: Significant changes in physical and biological systems are occurring on all continents and in most oceans, with a concentration of available data in Europe and North America. Most of these changes are in the direction expected with warming temperature. Here we show that these changes in natural systems since at least 1970 are occurring in regions of observed temperature increases, and that these temperature increases at continental scales cannot be explained by natural climate variations alone. Given the conclusions from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report that most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-twentieth century is very likely to be due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations, and furthermore that it is likely that there has been significant anthropogenic warming over the past 50 years averaged over each continent except Antarctica, we conclude that anthropogenic climate change is having a significant impact on physical and biological systems globally and in some continents.
ATMOSPHERIC VACILLATIONS IN A GENERAL-CIRCULATION MODEL .3. ANALYSIS USING TRANSFORMED EULERIAN-MEAN DIAGNOSTICS
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 12-1982
Landslide Risk Analysis using a New Constitutive Relationship for Granular Flow
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 06-2008
DOI: 10.1175/2007EI237.1
Abstract: In this study, landslide potential is investigated, using a new constitutive relationship for granular flow in a numerical model. Unique to this study is an original relationship between soil moisture and the inertial number for soil particles. This numerical model can be applied to arbitrary soil slab profile configurations and to the analysis of natural disasters, such as mudslides, glacier creeping, avalanches, landslips, and other pyroclastic flows. Here the focus is on mudslides. The authors examine the effects of bed slope and soil slab thickness, soil layered profile configuration, soil moisture content, basal sliding, and the growth of vegetation, and show that increased soil moisture enhances instability primarily by decreasing soil strength, together with increasing loading. Moreover, clay soils generally require a smaller relative saturation than sandy soils for sliding to commence. For a stable configuration, such as a small slope and/or dry soil, the basal sliding is absorbed if the perturbation magnitude is small. However, large perturbations can trigger significant-scale mudslides by liquefying the soil slab. The role of vegetation depends on the wet soil thickness and the spacing between vegetation roots. The thinner the saturated soil layer, the slower the flow, giving the vegetation additional time to extract soil moisture and slow down the flow. By analyzing the effect of the root system on the stress distribution, it is shown that closer tree spacing increases the drag effects on the velocity field, provided that the root system is deeper than the shearing zone. Finally, the authors investigated a two-layer soil profile, namely, sand above clay. A significant stress jump occurs at the interface of the two media.
Implications of changes in the atmospheric circulation on the detection of regional surface air temperature trends
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 04-2007
DOI: 10.1029/2006GL028502
THE STEADY LINEAR RESPONSE OF A SPHERICAL ATMOSPHERE TO THERMAL AND OROGRAPHIC FORCING
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 06-1981
Working Group 3: Greenhouse Signal Detection
Publisher: Elsevier
Date: 1991
Communicating global climate change using simple indices: an update
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 11-2012
Inter-hemispheric temperature variability over the past millennium
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 30-03-2014
DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE2174
Role of water vapor feedback on the amplitude of season cycle in the global mean surface air temperature
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 04-2008
DOI: 10.1029/2008GL033454
Understanding hydroclimate processes in the Murray-Darling Basin for natural resources management
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 12-07-2012
DOI: 10.5194/HESS-16-2049-2012
Abstract: Abstract. Isolating the causes of extreme variations or changes in the hydroclimate is difficult due to the complexities of the driving mechanisms, but it is crucial for effective natural resource management. In Australia's Murray-Darling Basin (MDB), ocean-atmosphere processes causing hydroclimatic variations occur on time scales from days to centuries, all are important, and none are likely to act in isolation. Instead, interactions between all hydroclimatic drivers, on multiple time scales, are likely to have caused the variations observed in MDB instrumental records. A simplified framework is presented to assist natural resource managers in identifying the potential causes of hydroclimatic anomalies. The framework condenses an event into its fundamental elements, including its spatial and temporal signal and small-scale evolution. The climatic processes that are potentially responsible are then examined to determine possible causes. The framework was applied to a period of prolonged and severe dry conditions occurring in the southern MDB from 1997–2010, providing insights into possible causal mechanisms that are consistent with recent studies. The framework also assists in identifying uncertainties and gaps in our understanding that need to be addressed.
Explaining Extreme Events of 2012 from a Climate Perspective
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 09-2013
Summertime Planetary Wave Resonance in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 08-2017
Abstract: Slow-moving planetary waves of high litudes are often associated with persistent surface weather conditions. This persistence can lead to extreme weather events with potentially serious implications for society and nature. Quasi-resonant lification (QRA) of planetary waves has been proposed as a mechanism to generate high- litude hemisphere-wide patterns of wavenumbers 6–8 in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) summer. Here this mechanism is studied in both hemispheres. Analyzing 1979–2015 reanalysis data, evidence for QRA in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) is found for wavenumbers 4 and 5. It is shown that the difference in resonating wavenumbers between hemispheres stems from the different magnitude and latitudinal shape of the respective zonal-mean zonal winds. During resonance events a strong and narrow jet is observed in both hemispheres, whereas the emergence of a second zonal mean jet at high latitudes (i.e., a “double jet”) is seen in the NH only. Strong and narrow jets can form stable, zonally oriented waveguides, which are an essential prerequisite for resonance. After investigating the waves’ preferred phase positions during QRA, a bimodal behavior is identified for wavenumbers 4 and 5 in the SH and for wavenumber 6 in the NH, whereas wavenumbers 7 and 8 exhibit a single preferred phase position in the NH. Composite plots of meridional wind and temperature anomalies during periods when the resonating wave is in the preferred phase position indicate those regions that are most likely to experience heat extremes. These regions include western North America, western Europe, and central Eurasia in the NH and Patagonia and Australia in the SH.
Are estimates of anthropogenic and natural influences on Australia's extreme 2010–2012 rainfall model-dependent?
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 22-08-2014
Long-term stationarity of El Niño–Southern Oscillation teleconnections in southeastern Australia
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 18-07-2015
The Role of Health Co-Benefits in the Development of Australian Climate Change Mitigation Policies
Publisher: MDPI AG
Date: 20-09-2016
Geoengineering governance-by-default: an earth system governance perspective
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 08-09-2017
Southeastern Australian climate variability 1860-2009: A multivariate analysis
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 24-09-2014
DOI: 10.1002/JOC.3812
Nonstationary Australasian Teleconnections and Implications for Paleoclimate Reconstructions
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 15-11-2013
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00338.1
Abstract: The stationarity of relationships between local and remote climates is a necessary, yet implicit, assumption underlying many paleoclimate reconstructions. However, the assumption is tenuous for many seasonal relationships between interannual variations in the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the southern annular mode (SAM) and Australasian precipitation and mean temperatures. Nonstationary statistical relationships between local and remote climates on the 31–71-yr time scale, defined as a change in their strength and/or phase outside that expected from local climate noise, are detected on near-centennial time scales from instrumental data, climate model simulations, and paleoclimate proxies. The relationships between ENSO and SAM and Australasian precipitation were nonstationary at 21%–37% of Australasian stations from 1900 to 2009 and strongly covaried, suggesting common modulation. Control simulations from three coupled climate models produce ENSO-like and SAM-like patterns of variability, but differ in detail to the observed patterns in Australasia. However, the model teleconnections also display nonstationarity, in some cases for over 50% of the domain. Therefore, nonstationary local–remote climatic relationships are inherent in environments regulated by internal variability. The assessments using paleoclimate reconstructions are not robust because of extraneous noise associated with the paleoclimate proxies. Instrumental records provide the only means of calibrating and evaluating regional paleoclimate reconstructions. However, the length of Australasian instrumental observations may be too short to capture the near-centennial-scale variations in local–remote climatic relationships, potentially compromising these reconstructions. The uncertainty surrounding nonstationary teleconnections must be acknowledged and quantified. This should include interpreting nonstationarities in paleoclimate reconstructions using physically based frameworks.
Reduced heat exposure by limiting global warming to 1.5 °C
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 25-06-2018
A combined climate extremes index for the Australian region
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 12-2010
Abstract: Changes in the area of Australia experiencing concurrent temperature and rainfall extremes are investigated through the use of two combined indices. The indices describe variations between the fraction of land area experiencing extreme cold and dry or hot and wet conditions. There is a high level of agreement between the variations and trends of the indices from 1957 to 2008 when computed using (i) a spatially complete gridded dataset without rigorous quality control checks and (ii) spatially incomplete high-quality station datasets with rigorous quality control checks. Australian extremes are examined starting from 1911, which is the first time a broad-scale assessment of Australian temperature extremes has been performed prior to 1957. Over the whole country, the results show an increase in the extent of hot and wet extremes and a decrease in the extent of cold and dry extremes annually and during all seasons from 1911 to 2008 at a rate of between 1% and 2% decade−1. These trends mostly stem from changes in tropical regions during summer and spring. There are relationships between the extent of extreme maximum temperatures, precipitation, and soil moisture on interannual and decadal time scales that are similar to the relationships exhibited by variations of the means. However, the trends from 1911 to 2008 and from 1957 to 2008 are not consistent with these relationships, providing evidence that the processes causing the interannual variations and those causing the longer-term trends are different.
Spatial coherence of rainfall variations using the Oklahoma Mesonet
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 25-03-2011
DOI: 10.1002/JOC.2322
Signatures of the Antarctic ozone hole in Southern Hemisphere surface climate change
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 23-10-2011
DOI: 10.1038/NGEO1296
Special issue on tropical cyclones
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 08-2007
A new ice sheet model validated by remote sensing of the Greenland ice sheet
Publisher: Walter de Gruyter GmbH
Date: 2010
DOI: 10.2478/V10085-010-0012-9
Abstract: Accurate prediction of future sea level rise requires models that accurately reproduce and explain the recent observed dramatic ice sheet behaviours. This study presents a new multi-phase, multiple-rheology, scalable and extensible geofluid model of the Greenland ice sheet that shows the credential of successfully reproducing the mass loss rate derived from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE), and the microwave remote sensed surface melt area over the past decade. Model simulated early 21st century surface ice flow compares satisfactorily with InSAR measurements. Accurate simulation of the three metrics simultaneously cannot be explained by fortunate model tuning and give us confidence in using this modelling system for projection of the future fate of Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS). Based on this fully adaptable three dimensional, thermo-mechanically coupled prognostic ice model, we examined the flow sensitivity to granular basal sliding, and further identified that this leads to a positive feedback contributing to enhanced mass loss in a future warming climate. The rheological properties of ice depend sensitively on its temperature, thus we further verified modelâŹs temperature solver against in situ observations. Driven by the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis atmospheric parameters, the ice model simulated GrIS mass loss rate compares favourably with that derived from the GRACE measurements, or about −147 km3/yr over the 2002–2008 period. Increase of the summer maximum melt area extent (SME) is indicative of expansion of the ablation zone. The modeled SME from year 1979 to 2006 compares well with the cross-polarized gradient ratio method (XPGR) observed melt area in terms of annual variabilities. A high correlation of 0.88 is found between the two time series. In the 30-year model simulation series, the surface melt exhibited large inter-annual and decadal variability, years 2002, 2005 and 2007 being three significant recent melt episodes.
Evaluation of the Australian Community Climate and Earth-System Simulator Chemistry-Climate Model
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 13-07-2015
DOI: 10.5194/ACPD-15-19161-2015
Abstract: Abstract. Chemistry climate models are important tools for addressing interactions of composition and climate in the Earth System. In particular, they are used for assessing the combined roles of greenhouse gases and ozone in Southern Hemisphere climate and weather. Here we present an evaluation of the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator-Chemistry Climate Model, focusing on the Southern Hemisphere and the Australian region. This model is used for the Australian contribution to the international Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative, which is soliciting hindcast, future projection and sensitivity simulations. The model simulates global total column ozone (TCO) distributions accurately, with a slight delay in the onset and recovery of springtime Antarctic ozone depletion, and consistently higher ozone values. However, October averaged Antarctic TCO from 1960 to 2010 show a similar amount of depletion compared to observations. A significant innovation is the evaluation of simulated vertical profiles of ozone and temperature with ozonesonde data from Australia, New Zealand and Antarctica from 38 to 90° S. Excess ozone concentrations (up to 26.4 % at Davis during winter) and stratospheric cold biases (up to 10.1 K at the South Pole) outside the period of perturbed springtime ozone depletion are seen during all seasons compared to ozonesondes. A disparity in the vertical location of ozone depletion is seen: centered around 100 hPa in ozonesonde data compared to above 50 hPa in the model. Analysis of vertical chlorine monoxide profiles indicates that colder Antarctic stratospheric temperatures (possibly due to reduced mid-latitude heat flux) are artificially enhancing polar stratospheric cloud formation at high altitudes. The models inability to explicitly simulated supercooled ternary solution may also explain the lack of depletion at lower altitudes. The simulated Southern Annular Mode (SAM) index compares well with ERA-Interim data. Accompanying these modulations of the SAM, 50 hPa zonal wind differences between 2001–2010 and 1979–1998 show increasing zonal wind strength southward of 60° S during December for both the model simulations and ERA-Interim data. These model diagnostics shows that the model reasonably captures the stratospheric ozone driven chemistry-climate interactions important for Australian climate and weather while highlighting areas for future model development.
ELIASSEN-PALM CROSS-SECTIONS FOR THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN HEMISPHERES
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 1982
Comment on Soon et al. (2001) 'Modeling climatic effects of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions: unknowns and uncertainties'
Publisher: Inter-Research Science Center
Date: 2003
DOI: 10.3354/CR024091
Variability of tropical cyclones over the southwest Pacific Ocean using a high-resolution climate model
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 14-03-2007
A search for human influences on the thermal structure of the atmosphere
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 07-1996
DOI: 10.1038/382039A0
Warming Patterns Affect El Niño Diversity in CMIP5 and CMIP6 Models
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 10-2020
Abstract: Given the consequences and global significance of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events it is essential to understand the representation of El Niño ersity in climate models for the present day and the future. In recent decades, El Niño events have occurred more frequently in the central Pacific (CP). Eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño events have increased in intensity. However, the processes and future implications of these observed changes in El Niño are not well understood. Here, the frequency and intensity of El Niño events are assessed in models from phases 5 and 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5 and CMIP6), and results are compared to extended instrumental and multicentury paleoclimate records. Future changes of El Niño are stronger for CP events than for EP events and differ between models. Models with a projected La Niña–like mean-state warming pattern show a tendency toward more EP but fewer CP events compared to models with an El Niño–like warming pattern. Among the models with more El Niño–like warming, differences in future El Niño can be partially explained by Pacific decadal variability (PDV). During positive PDV phases, more El Niño events occur, so future frequency changes are mainly determined by projected changes during positive PDV phases. Similarly, the intensity of El Niño is strongest during positive PDV phases. Future changes to El Niño may thus depend on both mean-state warming and decadal-scale natural variability.
Detection of regional surface temperature trends
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 11-2005
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI3565.1
Abstract: Trends in surface temperature over the last 100, 50, and 30 yr at in idual grid boxes in a 5° latitude–longitude grid are compared with model estimates of the natural internal variability of these trends and with the model response to increasing greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols. Three different climate models are used to provide estimates of the internal variability of trends, one of which appears to overestimate the observed variability of surface temperature at interannual and 5-yr time scales. Significant warming trends are found at a large fraction of the in idual grid boxes over the globe, a much larger fraction than can be explained by internal climate variations. The observed warming trends over the last 50 and 30 yr are consistent with the modeled response to increasing greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols in most of the models. However, in some regions, the observed century-scale trends are significantly larger than the modeled response to increasing greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols in the atmosphere. Warming trends consistent with the response to anthropogenic forcing are detected at scales on the order of 500 km in many regions of the globe.
The modulation of tropical cyclone activity in the Australian region by the Madden-Julian oscillation
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 12-2001
After ‘Black Saturday’: Adapting to bushfires in a changing climate
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Date: 14-10-2013
Time-frequency variability of ENSO and stochastic simulations
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 09-1998
A transport model study of the breakup of the Antarctic ozone hole in November 2000
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 04-2003
DOI: 10.1029/2002GL016494
Forecasting wildlife die-offs from extreme heat events
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 31-01-2019
DOI: 10.1111/ACV.12476
Human contribution to the lengthening of the growing season during 1950-99
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 11-2007
Abstract: Increasing surface temperatures are expected to result in longer growing seasons. An optimal detection analysis is carried out to assess the significance of increases in the growing season length during 1950–99, and to measure the anthropogenic component of the change. The signal is found to be detectable, both on global and continental scales, and human influence needs to be accounted for if it is to be fully explained. The change in the growing season length is found to be asymmetric and largely due to the earlier onset of spring, rather than the later ending of autumn. The growing season length, based on exceedence of local temperature thresholds, has a rate of increase of about 1.5 days decade−1 over the observation area. Local variations also allow for negative trends in parts of North America. The analysis suggests that the signal can be attributed to the anthropogenic forcings that have acted on the climate system and no other forcings are necessary to describe the change. Model projections predict that under future climate change the later ending of autumn will also contribute significantly to the lengthening of the growing season, which will increase in the twenty-first century by more than a month. Such major changes in seasonality will affect physical and biological systems in several ways, leading to important environmental and socioeconomic consequences and adaptation challenges.
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University Of Reading
Location: United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland
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View Funded ActivityDiscovery Projects - Grant ID: DP0556939
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View Funded ActivitySpecial Research Initiatives - Grant ID: SR0354594
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View Funded ActivityFederation Fellowships - Grant ID: FF0668679
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Amount: $1,901,110.00
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