ORCID Profile
0000-0003-4004-1475
Current Organisation
University of South Australia
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Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 11-2017
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 22-07-2021
DOI: 10.1002/CB.1979
Abstract: Marketers are interested in the loyalty of their customer base. Increasingly this includes examining behavioural loyalty inferred from the frequency or weight of purchase. A typical approach is to ide the customer base into arbitrary segments based on weight of purchase and then attempt to move customers from lighter to heavier segments, rather than have them reduce purchasing or cease buying altogether. Effects can be monitored by examining how purchasing by groups of in iduals evolves over successive periods. However, much of the flow between segments represents random fluctuations in period‐to‐period purchasing rather than true change to underlying loyalty. Accurate analysis requires true change to be separated from these stochastic changes, for ex le through benchmarks derived from conditional trend analysis (CTA). While CTA considers the two‐period case, it provides no guidance for changes seen across three‐periods. The three‐period case is nonetheless regularly reported by panel companies and relied on by managers. We therefore develop the three‐period CTA, using a tri‐variate NBD, to allow the analysis of buyer flow across three successive periods. We provide an empirical illustration and demonstrate fresh insights into the evolution of consumer loyalty. The findings allay oft‐raised concerns about supposedly ‘lost’ buyers, as perceived customer loss is often simply regression to the mean of the buying rates. Accordingly, the three‐period CTA shows predictable proportions of buyers who move between different buying‐weight segments, including first‐year buyers who were apparently ‘lost’ in the second year but return to buy the brand in the third year.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 02-2015
Publisher: SAGE Publications
Date: 14-11-2022
DOI: 10.1177/14413582221132039
Abstract: This study examines the claim that the Net Promoter Score (NPS) is an indicator of future revenue growth. It firstly reviews published work on this topic, then presents evidence from firms in three US industries: airlines, supermarkets and insurance companies. A distinctive feature of the analysis is that it uses longitudinal data for NPS and revenue for periods between 5 and 11 years for airlines and supermarkets. This contrasts to the predominant approach in past work, which has been to analyse cross-sectional data. In addition to that longitudinal analysis, the cross-sectional association between NPS and revenue growth is examined for a s le of 10 large insurance firms for an aggregated period 2017 to 2020. The overall conclusion from the analysis is that Net Promoter is not an indicator of future revenue growth.
Publisher: SAGE Publications
Date: 2009
Publisher: WARC Limited
Date: 06-2012
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 22-07-2016
DOI: 10.1002/CB.1595
Publisher: Emerald
Date: 11-06-2018
Abstract: This paper aims to investigate the extent to which temporary price promotions attract people who do not normally buy a brand, and whether buyers change their propensity to buy the promoted brand afterwards. The study analyses promotions in 18 consumer goods categories in the UK and USA. It calculates the proportion of promotion purchasers that have bought a brand at least once in their last five purchases and the Share of Category Requirements of those purchasers. These figures are then compared to normal-price purchasers. The study finds the majority of price-promotion buyers already bought the brand at least once in their last five category purchases (average = 77 per cent). This figure is similar to that for normal-price purchases (average = 81 per cent). Average Household SCR to the brand is also very similar for price-promotion purchases compared to normal price purchases. Therefore, promotions do not attract a markedly different mix of buyers. Furthermore, buyer propensity to buy the brand is the same after a promotion purchase as it was before. A contribution of the paper is that it supports a theory of consumers as cognitive misers, who screen out promotion information about unfamiliar brands. The paper also highlights that in packaged-goods markets, consumers can be generally seen as experienced buyers, who do not learn new information from buying brands they have previously purchased. The managerial implication is that price promotions must be judged on their immediate profitability. There seems little recourse to the idea they can result in “try it, like it, buy it again later” effects. While many studies have examined the effects of price promotions, this is the first to explicitly compare the mix of buyers attracted from a price promotion to that which occurs when a brand is sold at normal price.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 2013
Publisher: Informa UK Limited
Date: 28-01-2016
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 2024
Publisher: Emerald
Date: 2005
DOI: 10.1108/10610420510583752
Abstract: Investigates the purchasing of brands across different price tiers. The purpose was to determine if buying across price tiers followed the same pattern widely found in brand purchasing, known as the Duplication of Purchase Law. Uses a consumer survey methodology, using bottled wine as an ex le category. It provides evidence that while buyers exhibit repeat‐purchase loyalty to price tiers, they also buy from a repertoire of different price tiers. Finds that sharing of purchases with other price tiers does approximate the Duplication of Purchase Law. That is, a price tier shares customers with other price tiers approximately in line with the overall popularity of those other price tiers. This suggests that competition between price tiers is largely predictable, and based on the prevalence of purchases at each tier. However, there is also consistent “partitioning” where adjacent price tiers share customers to a greater extent than would be expected under the Duplication of Purchase Law. This research is valuable to both marketers and researchers, as it provides a quantifiable context and structure to those examining competition from a pricing perspective. It provides insights into where new brands should be launched and potential cannibalization effects. Finally, the presence of a price repertoire suggests that researchers should be wary of categorizing buyers to specific segments based on single answers to questions about “last” or “typical” price paid for purchases. Several fruitful areas for further research also emerge from this study, in particular the examination of what price levels or tiers actually constitute break‐points in markets, whereby brands residing in one tier are recognized as markedly different to those in other tiers.
Publisher: SAGE Publications
Date: 02-2009
Abstract: This study examines the impact of actual price increases on customer retention in a service context and how the effect of a price increase is moderated by both tenure and breadth of the customer's relationship. The study finds that tenure is associated with lowered customer sensitivity to price increases as well as having a favorable direct effect on customer retention rates. The study also finds that relationship breadth can exacerbate the adverse effect of price increases on customer retention. Finally, relationship breadth is found to have a favorable direct effect on retention rates only among newer customers. The managerial implication is that marketers must pay extra attention to short-tenure and broad-breadth customers when implementing price increases. The study represents a unique contribution to the service marketing literature, which to date reports little research examining the effect of actual price changes on consumer behavior.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 05-2020
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 26-05-2023
DOI: 10.1007/S11002-023-09682-7
Abstract: Practitioners and academics have long discussed strategies for brand sales growth. A recent ex le is an industry debate in which different brand growth strategies were argued: hegreatdebate (MMA Global & Neustarr, 2021). A central question in this arena is whether a brand should focus on its heavy, light, or non-buyers in its efforts to grow its sales. This study contributes to our knowledge about how sales growth can occur by investigating the potential contribution these three buyer groups can make to any sales gain. Using both, a simulation study and an empirical study of purchases of approximately 12,400 households in the UK, across different brands and categories, we show that almost any brand’s headroom growth potential lies mostly in light or non-buyers of that brand. Even for large brands with high penetration the growth potential of light brand buyers eclipses heavy brand buyers.
Publisher: SAGE Publications
Date: 11-2017
DOI: 10.1016/J.AUSMJ.2017.10.006
Abstract: We analyse the purchasing of brands at both regular and promotional price over time. The goal is to better understand the extent of consumer deal-proneness. Our analysis shows most consumers buy brands on promotion at least some of the time, and the tendency to buy on promotion relates mostly to how much promotion is available in a category, suggesting little innate deal-proneness. The extent of promotion can be so high that as many as half of all brand buyers buy the brand solely when it is on promotion. However, this amount of on-deal buying is only very slightly higher than would be expected given the amount of promotion available. We find few buyers buy only on promotion. Promotion buyers of a particular brand also buy other brands on and off promotion more or less in line with the market share those other brands have at regular and promotional price. The three main implications are: (1) brand loyalty is still an important aspect of purchase, (2) a brand's normal-price buyers are a major source of its volume from price promotions, and (3) there is only a small effect of deal-proneness on promotion buying over and above that of promotion prevalence in a category.
Publisher: SAGE Publications
Date: 05-2020
DOI: 10.1016/J.AUSMJ.2020.01.006
Abstract: This paper investigates the Natural Monopoly [NM] effect, which is that large brands have buyers who are on average less frequent or ‘lighter’ purchasers of the product category. The study analyzes the NM effect for brands in 28 consumer goods categories in The Netherlands. The analysis employs a multiple regression with category purchase rate as the dependent variable and brand penetration, together with brand price, brand type, average pack size and promotion incidence as independent variables. The study finds that higher brand penetration is indeed associated with a lower rate of category purchase, controlling for the other variables in the model. The NM effect is reasonably large: the largest two brands in a category tend to have a buyer base that on average purchase the category about 25% less frequently than those of the smallest two. The study also derives an explanation for how large brands are generally purchased more frequently, even when their buyer base on average buys the category less frequently. The findings imply that a focus on heavy category buyers is inconsistent with the goal of growing a brand.
Publisher: SAGE Publications
Date: 03-03-2020
Abstract: Customer satisfaction is a commonly used business performance metric. Despite the widespread use of satisfaction surveys, little is known about how stable in idual’s satisfaction scores are. If in idual’s scores show instability, this has implications for market research design and managerial actions. To investigate the stability of satisfaction scores, this study uses data from a two-wave satisfaction survey in which the same respondents were interviewed 6 weeks apart. The respondents had no recorded purchase with the retailer between survey waves. The main finding is that only 49% of respondents give exactly the same satisfaction score on a 1–7 scale when re-surveyed. After aggregating the results into three simple categories of dissatisfied, neutral to somewhat satisfied, and satisfied, the proportions who stay in the same category from one survey to the next are 44%, 57%, and 82%, respectively, despite the overall average score for the s le staying the same. The changes in scores are a manifestation of regression to the mean, whereby those who give a low or a high score the first time tend to regress up or down toward the overall average score the next time. The main management implications are (1) interventions aimed at low or high-satisfaction customer groups need to take regression to the mean into account (2) attempts to relate in idual’s satisfaction scores to future behavior (e.g., loyalty, brand switching) should use scores averaged over two surveys and (3) the oft-quoted belief that dissatisfied customers will tell more people compared with satisfied customers is less tenable, given that low-satisfaction scores tend to regress upward more than high scores regress down.
Publisher: Emerald
Date: 11-07-2016
Abstract: This paper aims to investigate factors associated with higher or lower television audience retention from one programme aired sequentially after another, referred to as lead-in audience retention. Lead-in is a primary determinant of television programme audience size. The study models a series of factors linked to lead-in audience retention, such as rating of the second programme, genre match and competitor options. The hypothesised relationships are tested across over 1,000 pairs of programmes aired in the UK and Australia, using multivariate linear regression models. The study finds the factors consistently related to significantly higher lead-in audience retention are the rating of the second programme in the pair and news genre match in programming. Factors consistently linked to lower audience retention include the rating of the initial programme and the number of competitor options starting at the same time as the second programme. The findings help television networks understand drivers of lead-in audience retention. Knowledge that can be used to inform the design of tailored marketing plans for programmes based on schedule, timing and adjacent programming. Further, the findings help advertisers and media buyers with scheduling television advertising to achieve reach or frequency objectives. No previous studies have comprehensively combined all four factors driving lead-in audience retention into a single model. The testing across multiple markets adds to the robustness of the findings. In particular, the discoveries about the impact of competitor network activities and genre build considerably on past research.
Publisher: Emerald
Date: 17-04-2009
DOI: 10.1108/10610420910948997
Abstract: This study responds to the call of Fader and Hardie for more research on buyer behaviour toward stock keeping units (SKU). This paper aims to examine whether different SKU‐based product variants appeal to buyers with different demographic characteristics. This study examines the product variants (such as size, formulation, type) of a range of brands in six consumer goods categories. The authors calculate and compare the market share of each variant within each demographic group. If a variant has a higher market share within a specific demographic group than the overall average, this indicates segmentation at the product variant level. The findings show that there are many differences in the market shares of product variants among different demographic groups of buyers. The largest differences are found extensively within the age and employment status variables. Functionally different product variants tend to draw different demographic‐based segments of buyers, which has not been previously shown.
Publisher: Emerald
Date: 30-07-2018
Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to examine what happens to key brand performance metrics as brands change in market share, in the context of packaged goods. The metrics are: penetration—the number of buyers a brand has and loyalty—measured as purchase frequency (PF) and share of category requirements (SCR). The study utilizes 24 data sets in 17 packaged goods categories in three emerging markets: China, Malaysia and Indonesia. The authors examine changes in penetration, loyalty and SCR in the context of volume and value market share change. In addition, the authors examine whether initial price point and price movements influence the results. The primary finding is that market share change is accompanied by a greater change in penetration than in any other metric. This finding is very consistent across categories and countries. The relative importance of the two loyalty metrics varies by country. SCR was a stronger factor in Indonesia, while PF was stronger in Malaysia. Analysis indicated that pricing strategy (initial price and promotional depth) did not alter the main pattern of results, suggesting the results hold for brands with different price levels and tactics. Irrespective of circumstance, to grow in value or volume market share, brands should aim to grow in penetration, while the importance of changes in specific loyalty measures depends on market conditions. This research extends past research on brand growth to the very different economic, geographic and cultural conditions of three crucially important emerging markets. Its main value lies in recommendations on how much to invest in building the size of the customer base vs consumer retention.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 03-2020
Publisher: Informa UK Limited
Date: 04-07-2014
Publisher: SAGE Publications
Date: 24-08-2023
DOI: 10.1177/14707853231195003
Abstract: The Net Promoter Score (NPS) is a popular management tool that is used in a variety of ways by firms, not-for-profits, and government. This study firstly provides an overview of the various ways in which the NPS is used. It then canvasses four concerns raised by researchers, authors and commentators about the NPS. These relate to (1) its presumed link to business growth, (2) the assumption that low NPS scores indicate negative word of mouth, (3) the weak association between stated likelihood to recommend and actual recommending, and (4) the claim that NPS is a superior metric to customer satisfaction. The evidence pertaining to those concerns is examined. The study then discusses another problem with the NPS that many practitioners are aware of, but has not been studied. The problem is that the counting method used to calculate the NPS introduces additional variation in scores compared to mean average likelihood-to-recommend scores. This additional variation occurs both across brands in a study, as well as for the same brand over survey waves. This variation is likely to be difficult for market research providers, or those who commission NPS work, to explain. The study concludes with alternative courses of action for NPS users.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 03-2018
Publisher: Informa UK Limited
Date: 11-08-2021
Publisher: Emerald
Date: 06-05-2014
Abstract: – The purpose of this paper is to determine if services brands such as banks share their customers with competing brands in line with the market share of those competitors, and whether services brands with similar images form market partitions with heightened competitive intensity. – The study uses brand usage, forced-choice and brand perceptions data obtained from a survey of consumers. The study uses a log-linear modelling framework to identify market structure and to test if partitions correspond to similarities in brand image. – Analysis of in-market data shows customers share their requirements between competing brands in line with market share, and that brands with similar images do not form partitions. However, when consumers are asked to choose brands for a specific product, there is some tentative evidence of brand partitions among brands with similar brand image. – The results here can help managers in service markets such as banking and insurance understand market structure. As a result, they can better plan customer acquisition and retention strategies. – The study addresses a lack of research into customer sharing and switching in services markets. No previous study has successfully employed brand-sharing, forced-choice and brand image data to identify market structure in a services context.
Publisher: SAGE Publications
Date: 11-2017
DOI: 10.1016/J.AUSMJ.2017.10.008
Abstract: Double Jeopardy describes how smaller brands lose twice they have fewer buyers who are slightly less loyal. A common loyalty measure is how often people buy the brand in a given time period. An alternative loyalty measure is how much people spend, which reflects purchase frequency and price paid. The brand equity literature suggests that high equity brands should reap high purchase rates and high prices. It is therefore possible that Double Jeopardy might become obscured when using a revenue-based measure such as spend per buyer. The reason is that price variation could create more, and more pronounced deviations from the Double Jeopardy pattern. We demonstrate that Double Jeopardy holds for spend in thirteen consumer goods categories: smaller brands have fewer buyers who spend somewhat less on the brand. We further find no relationship between brand share and average price and no relationship between excess/deficit loyalty and average price.
Publisher: Informa UK Limited
Date: 04-02-2020
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 17-12-2015
DOI: 10.1002/CB.1566
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 14-08-2021
DOI: 10.1002/CB.1981
Abstract: Fifty years ago, Gerald Goodhardt's analysis of audience duplication across television programs led to the discovery of the Duplication of Viewing law. This law was then extended to describe and predict customer sharing within product categories: the Duplication of Purchase Law. Many replications and extensions documented the law‐like status of this generalisation, providing important insight into how brands compete and the composition of consumers' repertoires. In this article we build on that seminal research, using Duplication of Purchase as an analytical method to measure loyalty across categories, or, in other words, the purchasing of brand extensions. Brand extensions are commonly cited as a way to capitalise on brand equity, and when asked, respondents often report high intentions to purchase brand extensions. However, the actual cross category buying of brand extensions has not been systematically examined. In this research we analyse panel data to understand whether purchasing a brand in one category does in fact increase the likelihood of a brand being bought in a second category. The study finds that a consumer who purchases from two categories is on average 2.4 times more likely to purchase a brand extension in the second category if they had purchased the same brand in the other category. This effect is larger for brands spanning similar, or complementary categories. Therefore, for many brand extensions the cross‐category loyalty effect is much more modest.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 09-2012
Publisher: SAGE Publications
Date: 24-05-2022
DOI: 10.1177/14707853221104730
Abstract: An apparent anomaly in brand metrics data is that the aggregated buyer base of each brand appears to buy the category at above the average rate. This seems arithmetically impossible. The effect is real, but it has a simple explanation. It is caused by the fact that heavy category buyers buy more brands than light buyers do. They therefore appear in the buyer base of multiple brands, and so inflate the category buying rate for each brand to above the overall average rate. This study shows what it calls the ‘category purchase rate anomaly’ in empirical data, as well as demonstrating how it occurs via a simulated dataset.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 29-07-2011
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 09-2014
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 11-2010
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 09-2014
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 12-06-2023
DOI: 10.1002/CB.2198
Abstract: This study examines behavioral brand loyalty in a category that, based on industry evidence, is expected to exhibit high loyalty: liquor (distilled spirits). The study aims to extend knowledge of the factors that underlie behavioral loyalty, including brand characteristics of price level and promotion incidence, and buyer characteristics of age and income. Drawing on theory and evidence relating to prospect theory, the “smart shopper” concept, as well as literature pertaining to age and loyalty, we develop a series of hypotheses and test them using extensive consumer panel purchasing data for US households. The analysis confirms that liquor is indeed a high loyalty category in the context of consumer goods, evidenced via high share of category requirements (SCR). The study also identifies that liquor brands follow the double jeopardy pattern, whereby larger‐share brands enjoy somewhat higher loyalty, and that exceptions—brands with unusually high or low volume loyalty for their size—are related to high volume purchased per occasion. In turn, there is a strong negative association between brand price and high average volume purchased per occasion (i.e., cheaper brands are bought in larger quantity or volume than expensive ones). The study also finds that brands with a low price tend to be particularly attractive to low‐income households, and that, in turn, low‐income households exhibit higher brand loyalty. These new findings contribute to the literature on brand loyalty and the links between loyalty, brand characteristics, and demographics.
Publisher: SAGE Publications
Date: 14-09-2023
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 14-01-2021
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 03-08-2014
Publisher: Emerald
Date: 12-2006
DOI: 10.1108/07363760610713019
Abstract: Many service organisations seek to grow by selling additional different products to their existing customers. Many managers are evaluated on the level of customer loyalty in terms of cross‐product holdings – for ex le, the average number of bank products or insurance policies held per customer. The purpose of this paper is to provide managers and researchers with some contextual knowledge and norms concerning “cross‐category” loyalty. In order to compare the levels of loyalty for competing brands, five relevant loyalty metrics were used in the analysis, with data sourced from two service industries, banking and insurance. The results show little variation in loyalty scores between competing brands, and what variation there is can be explained by historic factors, without reference to CRM strategies. This suggests that investments into CRM and cross‐selling initiatives seem to have less effect on loyalty metrics than many marketing textbooks and CRM advocates have assumed. Marketers should be very cautious of setting ambitious goals for increasing loyalty to their brand at a cross‐category level. Very few research papers have explored the issue of cross‐category loyalty. This is despite the value of the specific loyalty metrics as key performance indicators in service industries such as banking and insurance.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 30-11-2009
DOI: 10.1057/FSM.2009.19
Publisher: SAGE Publications
Date: 05-07-2018
Abstract: The contribution of regression analysis (econometrics) to advertising and media decision-making is questioned and found wanting. Econometrics cannot be expected to estimate valid and reliable forecasting models unless it is based on extensive experimental data on important variables, across varied conditions. This article canvasses alternative, evidence-based methods that have been shown to be useful for forecasting problems. These methods are described with the hope that they are more widely used for marketing forecasting. The approaches include media and copy experiments, analyses of in idual level single source data, and structured expert judgment.
Publisher: Emerald
Date: 11-11-2013
Abstract: – There is increasing managerial and academic interest in understanding behavioural loyalty to private label (PL) brands. A widely used behavioural loyalty measure is share of category requirements, or “SCR”. This study aims to examine why some PLs enjoy higher levels of SCR compared to others. – The study models consumer purchase data using the well-accepted NBD-Dirichlet model to identify the circumstances in which PL brands exhibit higher (“excess”) or lower SCR than expected. – The study finds four factors linked to excess SCR for PLs. They are: higher share of overall category sales accounted for by the PL within the retailer's stores, higher penetration of the category by the retailer, low relative price of the PL, and lastly, lower average purchase frequency for the category overall. – While the study uses 13 product categories, its geographic scope is limited to the UK. Further research could examine how the findings generalize to other markets. – The study is original in that it identifies factors that are linked to behavioural loyalty toward specific PL brands. The findings will help marketers in brand management and retailing to understand and contextualize brand performance metrics for PL brands.
No related grants have been discovered for John Dawes.