ORCID Profile
0000-0003-3486-2429
Current Organisation
University of South Australia
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Publisher: Springer International Publishing
Date: 2016
Publisher: Emerald
Date: 03-05-2016
DOI: 10.1108/JBIM-05-2014-0105
Abstract: This paper aims to extend the known boundary conditions of the negative binomial distribution (NBD) model, and to test the applicability of conditional trend analysis (CTA) – a key method to identify whether changes in overall sales are accounted for by previous non-buyers, light buyers or heavy buyers – in industrial purchasing situations. The study tested the NBD model and CTA in an industrial marketing context using a 12-month data set of purchases from an Australian supplier of a range of industrial plastic resins. The purchase data displayed a good NBD fit the study therefore extends the known boundary conditions of the model. The application of CTA provided second-period purchasing frequency estimates showing no significant difference from actual data, indicating the applicability of this method to industrial purchasing. Data relate to just one supplier. Further research across several industries is required to confirm the generalizability and robustness of NBD and CTA to industrial markets. Marketing decisions can be improved through appropriate analysis of customer purchasing data. However, without access to equivalent competitor data, industrial marketers are constrained in benchmarking the purchasing patterns of their own customers. The results indicate that use of the NBD model enables valid benchmarking for industrial products, while CTA would enable appropriate analysis of purchases by different classes of customer. This paper extends the known boundary conditions of the NBD model and provides the first published results, indicating the appropriateness of CTA to predict purchasing frequencies of different industrial customer classes.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 2022
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 22-07-2021
DOI: 10.1002/CB.1979
Abstract: Marketers are interested in the loyalty of their customer base. Increasingly this includes examining behavioural loyalty inferred from the frequency or weight of purchase. A typical approach is to ide the customer base into arbitrary segments based on weight of purchase and then attempt to move customers from lighter to heavier segments, rather than have them reduce purchasing or cease buying altogether. Effects can be monitored by examining how purchasing by groups of in iduals evolves over successive periods. However, much of the flow between segments represents random fluctuations in period‐to‐period purchasing rather than true change to underlying loyalty. Accurate analysis requires true change to be separated from these stochastic changes, for ex le through benchmarks derived from conditional trend analysis (CTA). While CTA considers the two‐period case, it provides no guidance for changes seen across three‐periods. The three‐period case is nonetheless regularly reported by panel companies and relied on by managers. We therefore develop the three‐period CTA, using a tri‐variate NBD, to allow the analysis of buyer flow across three successive periods. We provide an empirical illustration and demonstrate fresh insights into the evolution of consumer loyalty. The findings allay oft‐raised concerns about supposedly ‘lost’ buyers, as perceived customer loss is often simply regression to the mean of the buying rates. Accordingly, the three‐period CTA shows predictable proportions of buyers who move between different buying‐weight segments, including first‐year buyers who were apparently ‘lost’ in the second year but return to buy the brand in the third year.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 21-11-2021
DOI: 10.1002/CB.2006
Abstract: E‐fashion brand competition has historically been studied from an attitudinal lens, through surveys and theory‐based approaches. These studies generally examine consumer attitudes, satisfaction and loyalty highlighting that trust, satisfaction and reputation are key e‐commerce success elements. However, the empirical consumer behaviour literature rebuts the use of attitudes to explain brand performance, criticising their subjectivity and the overall ineffectiveness of loyalty as a brand growth tool. The article presents Gerald Goodhardt and colleagues' Dirichlet model as an alternative approach to understanding e‐fashion buyer behaviour. The Dirichlet model is a robust, stochastic model that has reliably predicted well‐established law‐like patterns of buyer behaviour and brand competition. We apply Dirichlet modelling to a new, non‐fast moving consumer goods category to extend consumer behaviour research in the online environment. The study uses consumer panel data from the United Kingdom, across two consecutive years. We conclude that the Dirichlet model has an excellent fit within the eBay fashion brand market. The study also identifies that the well‐known double jeopardy pattern exists within this market, demonstrating that e‐fashion brands grow through acquisition rather than retention of customers. This provides a different viewpoint than most e‐fashion brand growth literature. In addition to this, we examine the predictive capability of the Dirichlet model. We use a holdout s le to show that the model can predict future brand performance metrics, which is an exciting new development in consumer behaviour research.
Publisher: Informa UK Limited
Date: 19-08-2020
Publisher: SAGE Publications
Date: 11-2017
DOI: 10.1016/J.AUSMJ.2017.11.002
Abstract: This research examines the relationship between the average price paid by a household for consumer packaged goods and different types of households. Using panel data that consists of approximately 17,000 households per year, we examine 24 consumer packaged goods categories across 6 years (2005–2010) to understand the way in which average purchasing price varies across five key household types or stages, and to highlight generalizability. We find systematic patterns with respect to average price paid as households pass through key household stages. The changes follow an S-shape pattern across multiple product categories. The average purchasing price declines as households move from the pre-family stage to the young family stage, increases at the older family and post-family stages, and then decreases slightly at the single elderly stage. Overall, the most significant change is from the pre-family stage to the young family stage, followed by the change from the older family stage to the post-family stage. The differences hold across multiple years. The effects, however, are larger for nonfood than for food categories. Our results suggest that in order to broaden the brand customer base, brand managers need to have a product portfolio that includes both low and high price variants as well as presence across different distribution channels to satisfy the need of different types of households.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 02-07-2015
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 2017
DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.3042332
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 05-2020
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 26-05-2023
DOI: 10.1007/S11002-023-09682-7
Abstract: Practitioners and academics have long discussed strategies for brand sales growth. A recent ex le is an industry debate in which different brand growth strategies were argued: hegreatdebate (MMA Global & Neustarr, 2021). A central question in this arena is whether a brand should focus on its heavy, light, or non-buyers in its efforts to grow its sales. This study contributes to our knowledge about how sales growth can occur by investigating the potential contribution these three buyer groups can make to any sales gain. Using both, a simulation study and an empirical study of purchases of approximately 12,400 households in the UK, across different brands and categories, we show that almost any brand’s headroom growth potential lies mostly in light or non-buyers of that brand. Even for large brands with high penetration the growth potential of light brand buyers eclipses heavy brand buyers.
Publisher: SAGE Publications
Date: 11-2017
DOI: 10.1016/J.AUSMJ.2017.10.006
Abstract: We analyse the purchasing of brands at both regular and promotional price over time. The goal is to better understand the extent of consumer deal-proneness. Our analysis shows most consumers buy brands on promotion at least some of the time, and the tendency to buy on promotion relates mostly to how much promotion is available in a category, suggesting little innate deal-proneness. The extent of promotion can be so high that as many as half of all brand buyers buy the brand solely when it is on promotion. However, this amount of on-deal buying is only very slightly higher than would be expected given the amount of promotion available. We find few buyers buy only on promotion. Promotion buyers of a particular brand also buy other brands on and off promotion more or less in line with the market share those other brands have at regular and promotional price. The three main implications are: (1) brand loyalty is still an important aspect of purchase, (2) a brand's normal-price buyers are a major source of its volume from price promotions, and (3) there is only a small effect of deal-proneness on promotion buying over and above that of promotion prevalence in a category.
Publisher: SAGE Publications
Date: 11-2017
DOI: 10.1016/J.AUSMJ.2017.10.005
Abstract: This paper investigates consumer's behavioural loyalty to online supermarkets over time. We use three measures of behavioural loyalty (share of category requirements, repertoire size, and polarisation index) from four major online supermarkets in the UK across five categories. We find that loyalty to online supermarkets is high in the categories we examined, though it declined somewhat from 2005 to 2009 and subsequently remained stable from 2010 to 2014. We also extensively test the generalisability of the well-known Dirichlet model to the choice of online supermarkets. We find that the model gives better fit from 2010 to 2014 than from 2005 to 2009 and can describe loyalty and competition in this context.
Publisher: SAGE Publications
Date: 09-2016
Abstract: This research examines the retrospective buying behaviour of customers acquired by a new brand, both at category and brand level. New brand launches are risky endeavours for marketers, as many fail to attract a sustainable customer base. We examine new brand launches in six packaged goods categories in the UK, across a wide range of brand and category conditions, including premium brands and private labels. The results show that, in the pre-launch period, buyers of a new brand are more likely to have been heavier (more frequent) category buyers and, where applicable, heavier buyers of a parent brand. However, despite disproportionately drawing from heavy category buyers, the buyers of new launches tend to become only light brand buyers. This suggests that new brands are more likely to ‘slip’ into the repertoire of heavy category or parent brand buyers. This research contributes to our understanding of repertoire formation in packaged goods categories. It also has implications for the pre-testing of new launches and the scheduling of marketing activities.
Publisher: Emerald
Date: 17-04-2009
DOI: 10.1108/10610420910948997
Abstract: This study responds to the call of Fader and Hardie for more research on buyer behaviour toward stock keeping units (SKU). This paper aims to examine whether different SKU‐based product variants appeal to buyers with different demographic characteristics. This study examines the product variants (such as size, formulation, type) of a range of brands in six consumer goods categories. The authors calculate and compare the market share of each variant within each demographic group. If a variant has a higher market share within a specific demographic group than the overall average, this indicates segmentation at the product variant level. The findings show that there are many differences in the market shares of product variants among different demographic groups of buyers. The largest differences are found extensively within the age and employment status variables. Functionally different product variants tend to draw different demographic‐based segments of buyers, which has not been previously shown.
Publisher: Emerald
Date: 31-12-2022
Abstract: This study aims to investigate whether digital advertising can be effective despite consumer inattention and how certain common combinations of ad characteristics increase or decrease ad effectiveness under conditions of low attention. Using two online experiments in naturalistic environment, the authors compare ad effects under focussed, ided and incidental attention, for certain ad characteristics, namely, appeal type and (mis)matching between appeal and brand type. The results are analysed using logistic regression. Ad exposure under low attention does increase brand consideration and choice. The greatest uplift in impact occurs when moving from non-exposure to incidental attention. Under incidental attention, emotive advertising was more effective than rational advertising, as was matching rather than mismatching an emotional appeal to a hedonic brand. Conversely, under ided attention, rational advertising and mismatching a rational appeal to a hedonic brand were more effective. This research explores the effectiveness of Twitter ads with an emotional or a rational appeal and the (mis)matching between appeal and utilitarian or hedonic brand type. Future research can examine other formats and creative elements of digital advertising that can affect the low-attention processing and the effects that occur. Intrusive, attention-getting advertising strategies may not be necessary. Certain common creative devices can increase advertising effectiveness despite low attention, so marketers can ensure consumer-centric marketing communication. There has previously been limited understanding of low-attention mechanisms in advertising and little evidence of ad effectiveness under conditions of low attention. The research also demonstrates that certain ad characteristics, linked to common creative devices, enhance the impact of advertising despite low attention.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 03-2020
Publisher: SAGE Publications
Date: 05-2014
DOI: 10.1016/J.AUSMJ.2014.01.002
Abstract: This paper proposes and validates the negative binomial distribution (NBD) to predict the variation in repertoire size (the number of brands purchased by a consumer in a specific time period) within a category. From a managerial perspective, the variation is crucial for brand managers who would like to know the nature and intensity of competition that is facing their brands. Empirical findings across multiple datasets from UK consumer packaged goods demonstrate that the NBD model predicts variations in repertoire size very well in different time periods (1year, 18months and 3years), and different buyer groups (light and heavy category buyers). The paper then suggests a simple method to predict those who are brand exclusively loyal, those who are loyal to a few brands, and those who are ersified to buy multiple brands, based on very little information such as category and brand penetrations, using the parameters of the NBD model.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 03-2019
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 07-2019
Publisher: WARC Limited
Date: 12-05-2023
DOI: 10.2501/JAR-2023-009
Publisher: Informa UK Limited
Date: 11-08-2021
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 08-2020
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 26-11-2015
DOI: 10.1002/CB.1504
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 09-2016
Publisher: SAGE Publications
Date: 05-2015
Abstract: This study investigates the variation in brand growth and decline across many different product categories. It uses recent consumer panel data from the UK, covering 639 brands across 28 categories, including food, personal care, home care and pet food, over a five-year period from 2008 to 2012. Consistent with the literature, the study finds that most brands in the consumer packaged goods market are stationary, as only 14% of the brands change their market share by more than three points. However, the study discovers that some categories are more dynamic than others. The percentage of brands that change their share by more than three points is different across the categories, varying from 0% to 44%. The study further examines some potential factors that can affect the variation and finds that category penetration and purchase frequency have significant effects on the variation. The lower the category penetration and category purchase frequency, the lower the brand share stationarity. On the other hand, proportion of sales on promotion in the category and new SKU introductions do not have a significant effect on the variation.
Publisher: Springer International Publishing
Date: 06-12-2018
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 2020
Publisher: Springer International Publishing
Date: 2015
Publisher: Springer International Publishing
Date: 2017
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 21-09-2023
DOI: 10.1002/CB.2251
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 07-2017
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 11-2023
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 25-11-2021
DOI: 10.1002/CB.2011
Publisher: SAGE Publications
Date: 05-2018
Abstract: This article generalizes the well-known negative binomial distribution (NBD) theory to attendance behavior at sporting events. Using data from a large national survey across a range of sporting events in Australia, including Australian football, rugby league, soccer (outdoor), horse racing, motor sports, rugby union, cricket (outdoor), netball (indoor and outdoor), basketball (indoor and outdoor), harness racing, and dog racing, we show that the NBD is very robust in describing sporting event attendance behavior. This result has implications for sporting event marketing activities, such as which attendee segments should be targeted, how to increase ticket sales, as well as predicting future attendance behavior.
Publisher: SAGE Publications
Date: 14-09-2023
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 03-08-2014
Publisher: SAGE Publications
Date: 14-10-2023
DOI: 10.1177/14707853221134258
Abstract: The Modern Data Analysis paradigm (Williams, 2021) advocates using multiple methods to address the same research question, which is rarely done in studies of advertising creative effects. In this paper, we apply the MDA paradigm to data from Hartnett, Kennedy, et al. (2016), which coded 158 creative variables for 312 television advertisements with commercially validated short-term sales effectiveness outcomes. We found that many models give higher classification accuracy than the ordinal regression model previously applied, some significantly higher. Importantly, by applying many alternative but equally plausible analytical methods, we can identify creative variables associated with commercial success and have evidence-based confidence that these creative variables are artefacts of the data, and not artefacts of any particular analytical method and its associated assumptions. The findings reveal several alternative creative variables that are consistently associated with sales success across methods, which relate to the timing aspects of visual branding.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 07-2015
No related grants have been discovered for Giang Trinh.