ORCID Profile
0000-0002-7037-8194
Current Organisation
University of New South Wales
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Research Topics
In Research Link Australia (RLA), "Research Topics" refer to ANZSRC FOR and SEO codes. These topics are either sourced from ANZSRC FOR and SEO codes listed in researchers' related grants or generated by a large language model (LLM) based on their publications.
Top 5 Research Topics
ANZSRC Field of Research (FoR)
Atmospheric Sciences | Physical Oceanography | Information Systems Management | Oceanography Not Elsewhere Classified | Atmospheric Sciences Not Elsewhere Classified | Climate Change Processes | Geodesy | Oceanography | Geomatic Engineering | Glaciology
ANZSRC Socio-Economic Objective (SEO)
Climate change | Effects of Climate Change and Variability on Australia (excl. Social Impacts) | Land and water management | Climate Variability (excl. Social Impacts) | Expanding Knowledge in the Earth Sciences | Living resources (flora and fauna) | Effects of Climate Change and Variability on Antarctic and Sub-Antarctic Environments (excl. Social Impacts) | Climate Change Models | Expanding Knowledge in the Environmental Sciences |
Related Links
Publications
Evidence for the accelerations of sea level on multi‐decade and century timescales
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 26-11-2008
DOI: 10.1002/JOC.1771
Sea-Level and Climate Change
Publisher: Springer International Publishing
Date: 2018
An assessment of climate change impacts and adaptation for the Torres Strait Islands, Australia
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 11-12-2010
Replyto discussion of 'Towards a global regionally varying allowance for sea-levelrise' by J.R. Hunter, J.A. Church, N.J. White, X. Zhang [Ocean Engineering 71(1)17-27 (10 ctober 2013)]
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 11-2013
A Model of Sea Level Rise Caused by Ocean Thermal Expansion
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 04-1991
Sensitivity of Observationally Based Estimates of Ocean Heat Content and Thermal Expansion to Vertical Interpolation Schemes
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 23-12-2022
DOI: 10.1029/2022GL101079
Abstract: Changes in ocean heat content are a critical element of climate change, with the oceans containing about 90% of the excess heat stored in the climate system and 60% in the upper 700 db. Estimates of these changes are sensitive to horizontal mapping of the sparse historical data and errors in eXpendable BathyThermograph data. Here we show that they are also sensitive to the vertical interpolation of sparsely s led data through the water column. We estimate, using carefully constructed vertical interpolation methods with high‐quality hydrographic (bottle and CTD) data, the observationally based upper ocean heat content increase (thermosteric sea level rise) from 1956 to 2020 is 285 Zeta Joules (0.55 mm yr −1 ), 14% (14%) larger than estimates relying on simple but biased linear interpolation schemes. The underestimates have a clear spatial pattern with their maximum near 15°N and 12°S, around the maxima in the curvature of the temperature‐depth profile.
Absolute Calibration in Bass Strait, Australia: TOPEX, Jason-1 and OSTM/Jason-2
Publisher: Informa UK Limited
Date: 07-2011
LINEAR-SYSTEMS ANALYSIS OF MOMENTUM ON THE CONTINENTAL-SHELF AND SLOPE OF THE CENTRAL GREAT-BARRIER-REEF
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 15-12-1991
DOI: 10.1029/91JC01919
Pitfalls with the Numerical Representation of Isopycnal Diapycnal Mixing
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 1986
Time of emergence for regional sea-level change
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 12-10-2014
DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE2397
An Earth-System Prediction Initiative for the Twenty-First Century
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 10-2010
Circulation in the Gulf of Carpentaria. I. Direct observations of currents in the south-east corner of the Gulf of Carpentaria
Publisher: CSIRO Publishing
Date: 1983
DOI: 10.1071/MF9830001
Abstract: Data from three current-meter moorings in the south-east corner of the Gulf of Carpentaria indicate that barotropic diurnal tidal currents are predominant. The low-passed currents are also barotropic but there is not a good correlation between the currents at the three moorings or with the wind recorded at Mornington Island. This may be due to the existence of topographic gyres in the residual currents, or the winds recorded at Mornington Island not being representative of those at the mooring sites.
Correction to “Revisiting the Earth's sea‐level and energy budgets from 1961 to 2008”
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 08-08-2013
DOI: 10.1002/GRL.50752
Matthias Tomczak: A distinguished regional oceanographer and water-mass expert
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 06-2008
ENSO-Related Global Ocean Heat Content Variations
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 04-12-2019
Abstract: The modulation of the full-depth global integrated ocean heat content (GOHC) by El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has been estimated in various studies. However, the quantitative results and the mechanisms at work remain uncertain. Here, a dynamically consistent ocean state estimate is utilized to study the large-scale integrated heat content variations during ENSO events for the global ocean. The full-depth GOHC exhibits a cooling tendency during the peak and decaying phases of El Niño, which is a result of the negative surface heat flux (SHF) anomaly in the tropics (30°S–30°N), partially offset by the positive SHF anomaly at higher latitudes. The tropical SHF anomaly acts as a lagged response to d the convergence of oceanic heat transport, which redistributes heat from the extratropics and the subsurface layers (100–440 m) into the upper tropical oceans (0–100 m) during the onset and peak of El Niño. These results highlight the global nature of the oceanic heat redistribution during ENSO events, as well as how the redistribution process affects the full-depth GOHC. The meridional heat exchange across 30°S and 30°N is driven by ocean current anomalies, while multiple processes contribute to the vertical heat exchange across 100 m simultaneously. Heat advection due to unbalanced mass transport is distinguished from the mass balanced one, with significant contributions from the meridional and zonal overturning cells being identified for the latter in the vertical direction. Results presented here have implications for monitoring the planetary energy budget and evaluating ENSO’s global imprints on ocean heat content in different estimates.
Large-scale freshening of intermediate waters in the Pacific and Indian oceans
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 07-1999
DOI: 10.1038/22733
Sea-level rise: No chaos in the satellite-data record
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 09-2017
DOI: 10.1038/549334D
Understanding global sea levels: past, present and future
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 02-2008
Evolving patterns of sterodynamic sea-level rise under mitigation scenarios and insights from linear system theory
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 05-04-2021
DOI: 10.1007/S00382-021-05727-7
Abstract: Long-term behaviour of sea-level rise is an important factor in assessing the impact of climate change on multi-century timescales. Under the stabilisation scenario RCP4.5, Sterodynamic Sea-Level (SdynSL) and ocean density change in the CMIP5 models exhibit distinct patterns over the periods before and after Radiative Forcing (RF) stabilisation (2000–2070 vs. 2100–2300). The stabilisation pattern is more geographically uniform and involves deeper penetration of density change than the transient pattern. In RCP2.6, 4.5 and 8.5, the spatiotemporal evolution of SdynSL change can be approximated as a linear combination of the transient and stabilisation patterns. Specifically, SdynSL change is dominated by the transient pattern when RF increases rapidly, but it is increasingly affected by the stabilisation pattern once RF starts to stabilise. The growth of the stabilisation pattern could persist for centuries after RF ceases increasing. The evolving patterns of SdynSL change can also be approximated as a linear system's responses (characterised by its Green’s function) to time-dependent boundary conditions. By examining SdynSL change simulated in linear system models with different estimates of Green's functions, we find that both the climatological ocean circulation and the ocean's dynamical response to RF play a role in shaping the patterns of SdynSL change. The linear system model is more accurate than the univariate pattern scaling in emulating the CMIP5 SdynSL change beyond 2100. The emergence of the stabilisation pattern leads to a 1–10% decrease in the ocean's expansion efficiency of heat over 2000–2300 in RCP2.6 and 4.5.
Simplified circulation and mixing models of Moreton Bay, Queensland
Publisher: CSIRO Publishing
Date: 1977
DOI: 10.1071/MF9770023
Abstract: An investigation of water motions in Moreton Bay has employed existing data on tide heights and salinity to establish and check a quasi-two-dimensional mathematical model of the Bay. Agreement between model and prototype tide levels is good, and the predicted circulation patterns are generally similar to the clockwise circulation inferred by earlier workers. Because of the uncontrolled numerical dispersion in the model, the predicted salinity distributions show only fair agreement with the measured values. Overall, the study identifies the following needs for further modelling: adequate treatment of multiple ocean entrances, detailed sensitivity tests, more extensive field data and more sophisticated models.
Sea level projections for the Australian region in the 21st century
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 16-08-2017
DOI: 10.1002/2017GL074176
East Australian current adjacent to the Great Barrier Reef
Publisher: CSIRO Publishing
Date: 1987
DOI: 10.1071/MF9870671
Abstract: Hydrographic data from a series of cruises during 1980-1981 are used to determine the circulation in the western Coral Sea region immediately adjacent to the Great Barrier Reef. The data show flow westward towards the Great Barrier Reef, bifurcating just north of 18�S. During the monsoon season (December to February), the bifurcation point moves north to at least 14�s. The geostrophic westward flow has a subsurface maximum at a depth of about 150 m. South of the bifurcation point, the flow is south-eastward on the upper continental slope and north-eastward offshore. North of the bifurcation point, the surface flow and transport (relative to 900 dbar) are northward. However, there is sometimes a south-eastwards near-surface shear. Near the bifurcation point, the surface currents are weak and variable. All of these features of the surface flow are reflected in the paths followed by satellite-tracked drifters. Although the drifters were fixed infrequently, the drifter data indicate the possible presence of small cyclonic eddies in the region of the bifurcation. All of the satellite-tracked drifters went aground in the Great Barrier Reef within 30 days of entering the region offshore from the Reef. The data are consistent with recent models of the wind-driven circulation in the South Pacific that propose that the westward flow bifurcates at about 20�S., with 17 x 106 m3 s-1 flowing through the Indonesian Archipelago from the Pacific Ocean to the Indian Ocean.
Towards a global regionally varying allowance for sea-level rise
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 10-2013
Framework for High‐End Estimates of Sea Level Rise for Stakeholder Applications
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 08-2019
DOI: 10.1029/2019EF001163
Evaluating the ability of process based models to project sea-level change
Publisher: IOP Publishing
Date: 03-2013
Does the nonlinearity of the equation of state impose an upper bound on the buoyancy frequency?
Publisher: Journal of Marine Research/Yale
Date: 11-2003
Interdecadal water mass changes in the Southern Ocean between 30°E and 160°E
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 04-2005
DOI: 10.1029/2004GL022220
Tidal currents in the central Great Barrier Reef
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 1985
Australian sea levels—Trends, regional variability and influencing factors
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 09-2014
Observed poleward freshwater transport since 1970
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 23-02-2022
DOI: 10.1038/S41586-021-04370-W
Abstract: Warming-induced global water cycle changes pose a significant challenge to global ecosystems and human society. However, quantifying historical water cycle change is difficult owing to a dearth of direct observations, particularly over the ocean, where 77% and 85% of global precipitation and evaporation occur, respectively
The Energy Source for the Coastal-Trapped Waves in the Australian Coastal Experiment Region
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 03-1987
Estimates of the regional distribution of sea level rise over the 1950-2000 period
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 07-2004
Simulated Lagrangian pathways between the Leeuwin Current System and the upper-ocean circulation of the southeast Indian Ocean
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 04-2007
Understanding sea level rise and variability
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 23-01-2007
DOI: 10.1029/2007EO040008
Sensitivity of Global Upper-Ocean Heat Content Estimates to Mapping Methods, XBT Bias Corrections, and Baseline Climatologies*
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 16-06-2016
Abstract: Ocean warming accounts for the majority of the earth’s recent energy imbalance. Historic ocean heat content (OHC) changes are important for understanding changing climate. Calculations of OHC anomalies (OHCA) from in situ measurements provide estimates of these changes. Uncertainties in OHCA estimates arise from calculating global fields from temporally and spatially irregular data (mapping method), instrument bias corrections, and the definitions of a baseline climatology from which anomalies are calculated. To investigate sensitivity of OHCA estimates for the upper 700 m to these different factors, the same quality-controlled dataset is used by seven groups and comparisons are made. Two time periods (1970–2008 and 1993–2008) are examined. Uncertainty due to the mapping method is 16.5 ZJ for 1970–2008 and 17.1 ZJ for 1993–2008 (1 ZJ = 1 × 1021 J). Uncertainty due to instrument bias correction varied from 8.0 to 17.9 ZJ for 1970–2008 and from 10.9 to 22.4 ZJ for 1993–2008, depending on mapping method. Uncertainty due to baseline mean varied from 3.5 to 14.5 ZJ for 1970–2008 and from 2.7 to 9.8 ZJ for 1993–2008, depending on mapping method and offsets. On average mapping method is the largest source of uncertainty. The linear trend varied from 1.3 to 5.0 ZJ yr−1 (0.08–0.31 W m−2) for 1970–2008 and from 1.5 to 9.4 ZJ yr−1 (0.09–0.58 W m−2) for 1993–2008, depending on method, instrument bias correction, and baseline mean. Despite these complications, a statistically robust upper-ocean warming was found in all cases for the full time period.
The Impacts of the Oceans on Climate Change
Publisher: IEEE
Date: 09-2008
Information for Australian Impact and Adaptation Planning in response to Sea-level Rise
Publisher: Bureau of Meteorology, Australia
Date: 03-2015
DOI: 10.22499/2.6501.009
Coastal-Trapped Waves on the East Australian Continental Shelf Part I: Propagation of Modes
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 11-1986
Coastal and global averaged sea level rise for 1950 to 2000
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 2005
DOI: 10.1029/2004GL021391
Observed decreases in oxygen content of the global ocean
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 12-2011
DOI: 10.1029/2011GL049513
MODELING PROPOSAL COORDINATING GLOBAL OCEAN WAVE CLIMATE PROJECTIONS
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 04-2010
A Mass and Energy Conservation Analysis of Drift in the CMIP6 Ensemble
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 26-08-2020
Abstract: Coupled climate models are prone to ‘drift’ (long-term unforced trends in state variables) due to incomplete spin-up and non-closure of the global mass and energy budgets. Here we assess model drift and the associated conservation of energy, mass and salt in CMIP6 and CMIP5 models. For most models, drift in globally-integrated ocean mass and heat content represents a small but non-negligible fraction of recent historical trends, while drift in atmospheric water vapor is negligible. Model drift tends to be much larger in time-integrated ocean heat and freshwater flux, net top-of-the-atmosphere radiation (netTOA) and moisture flux into the atmosphere (evaporation minus precipitation), indicating a substantial leakage of mass and energy in the simulated climate system. Most models are able to achieve approximate energy budget closure after drift is removed, but ocean mass budget closure eludes a number of models even after de-drifting and none achieve closure of the atmospheric moisture budget. The magnitude of the drift in the CMIP6 ensemble represents an improvement over CMIP5 in some cases (salinity and time-integrated netTOA) but is worse (time-integrated ocean freshwater and atmospheric moisture fluxes) or little changed (ocean heat content, ocean mass and time-integrated ocean heat flux) for others, while closure of the ocean mass and energy budgets after drift removal has improved.
Our changing oceans: conclusions of the first International Symposium on the Effects of climate change on the world's oceans
Publisher: Oxford University Press (OUP)
Date: 04-06-2009
Abstract: Valdés, L., Peterson, W., Church, K., and Marcos, M. 2009. Our changing oceans: conclusions of the first International Symposium on the Effects of climate change on the world's oceans. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 66: 1435–1438.
Rapid barotropic sea level rise from ice sheet melting
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 06-2012
DOI: 10.1029/2011JC007733
Improved estimates of upper-ocean warming and multi-decadal sea-level rise
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 06-2008
DOI: 10.1038/NATURE07080
Abstract: Changes in the climate system's energy budget are predominantly revealed in ocean temperatures and the associated thermal expansion contribution to sea-level rise. Climate models, however, do not reproduce the large decadal variability in globally averaged ocean heat content inferred from the sparse observational database, even when volcanic and other variable climate forcings are included. The sum of the observed contributions has also not adequately explained the overall multi-decadal rise. Here we report improved estimates of near-global ocean heat content and thermal expansion for the upper 300 m and 700 m of the ocean for 1950-2003, using statistical techniques that allow for sparse data coverage and applying recent corrections to reduce systematic biases in the most common ocean temperature observations. Our ocean warming and thermal expansion trends for 1961-2003 are about 50 per cent larger than earlier estimates but about 40 per cent smaller for 1993-2003, which is consistent with the recognition that previously estimated rates for the 1990s had a positive bias as a result of instrumental errors. On average, the decadal variability of the climate models with volcanic forcing now agrees approximately with the observations, but the modelled multi-decadal trends are smaller than observed. We add our observational estimate of upper-ocean thermal expansion to other contributions to sea-level rise and find that the sum of contributions from 1961 to 2003 is about 1.5 +/- 0.4 mm yr(-1), in good agreement with our updated estimate of near-global mean sea-level rise (using techniques established in earlier studies) of 1.6 +/- 0.2 mm yr(-1).
Sea-level rise by 2100
Publisher: American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
Date: 20-12-2013
Sea level trends, interannual and decadal variability in the Pacific Ocean
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 11-2012
DOI: 10.1029/2012GL053240
Evaluating Model Simulations of Twentieth-Century Sea Level Rise. Part I: Global Mean Sea Level Change
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 11-2017
Abstract: Sea level change is one of the major consequences of climate change and is projected to affect coastal communities around the world. Here, global mean sea level (GMSL) change estimated by 12 climate models from phase 5 of the World Climate Research Programme’s Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) is compared to observational estimates for the period 1900–2015. Observed and simulated in idual contributions to GMSL change (thermal expansion, glacier mass change, ice sheet mass change, landwater storage change) are analyzed and compared to observed GMSL change over the period 1900–2007 using tide gauge reconstructions, and over the period 1993–2015 using satellite altimetry estimates. The model-simulated contributions explain 50% ± 30% (uncertainties 1.65 σ unless indicated otherwise) of the mean observed change from 1901–20 to 1988–2007. Based on attributable biases between observations and models, a number of corrections are proposed, which result in an improved explanation of 75% ± 38% of the observed change. For the satellite era (from 1993–97 to 2011–15) an improved budget closure of 102% ± 33% is found (105% ± 35% when including the proposed bias corrections). Simulated decadal trends increase over the twentieth century, both in the thermal expansion and the combined mass contributions (glaciers, ice sheets, and landwater storage). The mass components explain the majority of sea level rise over the twentieth century, but the thermal expansion has increasingly contributed to sea level rise, starting from 1910 onward and in 2015 accounting for 46% of the total simulated sea level change.
Absolute Calibration of TOPEX/Poseidon and Jason-1 Using GPS Buoys in Bass Strait, Australia
Publisher: Informa UK Limited
Date: 07-2003
DOI: 10.1080/714044522
Antarctic coastal polynya response to climate change
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 07-2007
DOI: 10.1029/2005JC003291
Reconciling global mean and regional sea level change in projections and observations
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 12-02-2021
DOI: 10.1038/S41467-021-21265-6
Abstract: The ability of climate models to simulate 20th century global mean sea level (GMSL) and regional sea-level change has been demonstrated. However, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) and Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (SROCC) sea-level projections have not been rigorously evaluated with observed GMSL and coastal sea level from a global network of tide gauges as the short overlapping period (2007–2018) and natural variability make the detection of trends and accelerations challenging. Here, we critically evaluate these projections with satellite and tide-gauge observations. The observed trends from GMSL and the regional weighted mean at tide-gauge stations confirm the projections under three Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios within 90% confidence level during 2007–2018. The central values of the observed GMSL (1993–2018) and regional weighted mean (1970–2018) accelerations are larger than projections for RCP2.6 and lie between (or even above) those for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 over 2007–2032, but are not yet statistically different from any scenario. While the confirmation of the projection trends gives us confidence in current understanding of near future sea-level change, it leaves open questions concerning late 21 st century non-linear accelerations from ice-sheet contributions.
Ocean temperatures chronicle the ongoing warming of Earth
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 27-01-2016
DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE2924
Modelling the advection of vertically migrating shrimp larvae
Publisher: Journal of Marine Research/Yale
Date: 08-1983
Long-term global ocean heat content change driven by sub-polar surface heat fluxes
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 09-11-2020
Basal melt, seasonal water mass transformation, ocean current variability, and deep convection processes along the Amery Ice Shelf calving front, East Antarctica
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 07-2016
DOI: 10.1002/2016JC011858
Non-linear model of the tides in the Gulf of Carpentaria
Publisher: CSIRO Publishing
Date: 1981
DOI: 10.1071/MF9810685
Abstract: A non-linear barotropic model was used to evaluate the tidal regime in the Gulf of Carpentaria. The model was forced by open boundary conditions specified on a line joining Wessel Islands to False Cape and a volume flow through Torres Strait estimated from tidal constants on each side of the Strait. The model gives results in agreement with the available observations and in particular predicts mixed tides in the northern half of the Gulf and diurnal tides in the south-east corner of the Gulf. The diurnal tide consists of a Kelvin wave entering the Gulf in the north-west and propagating clockwise around the Gulf with one hidromic point. The higher frequencies of the semidiurnal tides allow the generation of a first-mqde Poincare wave and the trapping of energy in the northern half of the Gulf. Amphidromes near Mornington Island and Groote Eylandt are also predicted, as is a region of low litude and rapid phase variations in the centre of the Gulf.
Human-induced global ocean warming on multidecadal timescales
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 10-06-2012
DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE1553
Comparison of results from several AOGCMs for global and regional sea-level change 1900-2100
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 12-2001
Recent Progress in Understanding and Projecting Regional and Global Mean Sea Level Change
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 10-10-2015
Near bottom currents and their relation to the transport in the Kuroshio Extension
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 08-2004
DOI: 10.1029/2004GL020068
Comment on Expert assessment of sea-level rise by AD 2100 and AD 2300, by Horton et al. (2014)
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 08-2014
Transports across the Tasman Sea from WOCE repeat sections: The East Australian Current 1990–94
Publisher: Informa UK Limited
Date: 12-1997
Sea-Level Rise from the Late 19th to the Early 21st Century
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 30-03-2011
Role of eddies in cooling the Leeuwin Current
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 03-2006
DOI: 10.1029/2005GL025216
Lessons Learned from IPCC AR4: Scientific Developments Needed to Understand, Predict, and Respond to Climate Change
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 04-2009
Internal climate memory in observations and models
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 25-02-2015
DOI: 10.1002/2014GL062765
Projected sea-level changes in the marginal seas near China based on dynamical downscaling
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 14-06-2021
Abstract: Projections of future sea-level changes are usually based on global climate models (GCMs). However, the changes in shallow coastal regions, like the marginal seas near China, cannot be fully resolved in GCMs. To improve regional sea-level simulations, a high-resolution (~8 km) regional ocean model is set up for the marginal seas near China for both the historical (1994-2015) and future (2079-2100) periods under representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. The historical ocean simulations are evaluated at different spatiotemporal scales, and the model is then integrated for the future period, driven by projected monthly climatological climate change signals from 8 GCMs in idually via both surface and open boundary conditions. The downscaled ocean changes derived by comparing historical and future experiments reveal greater spatial details than those from GCMs, e.g., a low dynamic sea level (DSL) centre of -0.15 m in the middle of the South China Sea (SCS). As a novel test, the downscaled results driven by the ensemble mean forcings are almost identical with the ensemble average results from in idually downscaled cases. Forcing of the DSL change and increased cyclonic circulation in the SCS are dominated by the climate change signals from the Pacific, while the DSL change in the East China marginal seas is caused by both local atmosphere forcing and signals from the Pacific. The method of downscaling developed in this study is a useful modelling protocol for adaptation and mitigation planning for future oceanic climate changes.
A 6 year record of baroclinic transport variability of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current at 140°E derived from expendable bathythermograph and altimeter measurements
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 10-2002
DOI: 10.1029/2001JC000787
Sea‐Level Rise and Variability: Synthesis and Outlook for the Future
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 05-07-2010
Unabated global mean sea-level rise over the satellite altimeter era
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 11-05-2015
DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE2635
Projection of subtropical gyre circulation and associated sea level changes in the Pacific based on CMIP3 climate models
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 07-2015
Unabated Planetary Warming and its Ocean structure since 2006
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 02-02-2015
DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE2513
The increasing rate of global mean sea-level rise during 1993-2014
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 26-06-2017
DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE3325
A Change in Circulation?
Publisher: American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
Date: 17-08-2007
Quantifying internally generated and externally forced climate signals at regional scales in CMIP5 models
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 06-11-2015
DOI: 10.1002/2015GL065508
Anthropogenic forcing dominates global mean sea-level rise since 1970
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 11-04-2016
DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE2991
The Prediction of Wind-Forced Currents and Sea Level on the Southeast Australian Continental Shelf
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 12-1994
Changing Expendable Bathythermograph Fall Rates and Their Impact on Estimates of Thermosteric Sea Level Rise
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 11-2008
Abstract: A time-varying warm bias in the global XBT data archive is demonstrated to be largely due to changes in the fall rate of XBT probes likely associated with small manufacturing changes at the factory. Deep-reaching XBTs have a different fall rate history than shallow XBTs. Fall rates were fastest in the early 1970s, reached a minimum between 1975 and 1985, reached another maximum in the late 1980s and early 1990s, and have been declining since. Field XBT/CTD intercomparisons and a pseudoprofile technique based on satellite altimetry largely confirm this time history. A global correction is presented and applied to estimates of the thermosteric component of sea level rise. The XBT fall rate minimum from 1975 to 1985 appears as a 10-yr “warm period” in the global ocean in thermosteric sea level and heat content estimates using uncorrected data. Upon correction, the thermosteric sea level curve has reduced decadal variability and a larger, steadier long-term trend.
Changes in the global hydrological‐cycle inferred from ocean salinity
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 09-2010
DOI: 10.1029/2010GL044222
The East Australian current 1978
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 09-1981
Meeting User Needs for Sea Level Rise Information: A Decision Analysis Perspective
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 03-2019
DOI: 10.1029/2018EF001071
Chapter 1.2 Ocean processes and climate phenomena
Publisher: Elsevier
Date: 2001
Variability and change of sea level and its components in the I ndo‐P acific region during the altimetry era
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 03-2017
DOI: 10.1002/2016JC012345
SURFACE EDDY MOMENTUM FLUX AND VELOCITY VARIANCES IN THE SOUTHERN-OCEAN FROM GEOSAT ALTIMETRY
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 10-1994
Sea-level rise at tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean islands
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 09-2006
Anthropogenic Aerosols, Greenhouse Gases, and the Uptake, Transport, and Storage of Excess Heat in the Climate System
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 15-05-2019
DOI: 10.1029/2019GL082015
A Permanent Undercurrent Adjacent to the Great Barrier Reef
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 09-1983
Significant decadal-scale impact of volcanic eruptions on sea level and ocean heat content
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 11-2005
DOI: 10.1038/NATURE04237
Abstract: Ocean thermal expansion contributes significantly to sea-level variability and rise. However, observed decadal variability in ocean heat content and sea level has not been reproduced well in climate models. Aerosols injected into the stratosphere during volcanic eruptions scatter incoming solar radiation, and cause a rapid cooling of the atmosphere and a reduction in rainfall, as well as other changes in the climate system. Here we use observations of ocean heat content and a set of climate simulations to show that large volcanic eruptions result in rapid reductions in ocean heat content and global mean sea level. For the Mt Pinatubo eruption, we estimate a reduction in ocean heat content of about 3 x 10(22) J and a global sea-level fall of about 5 mm. Over the three years following such an eruption, we estimate a decrease in evaporation of up to 0.1 mm d(-1), comparable to observed changes in mean land precipitation. The recovery of sea level following the Mt Pinatubo eruption in 1991 explains about half of the difference between the long-term rate of sea-level rise of 1.8 mm yr(-1) (for 1950-2000), and the higher rate estimated for the more recent period where satellite altimeter data are available (1993-2000).
Seasonal prediction of global sea level anomalies using an ocean–atmosphere dynamical model
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 12-02-2014
Revisiting the Earth's sea-level and energy budgets from 1961 to 2008
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 16-09-2011
DOI: 10.1029/2011GL048794
Effect of salinity on estimating geostrophic transport of the Indonesian Throughflow along the IX1 XBT section
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 08-2005
The Leeuwin Current off Western Australia, 1986–1987
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 02-1991
East Australian Current volume transports at 30°S: Estimates from the World Ocean Circulation Experiment hydrographic sections PR11/P6 and the PCM3 current meter array
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 15-12-2000
DOI: 10.1029/1999JC000121
The Changing Oceans
Publisher: American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
Date: 18-06-2010
Abstract: The evolving disaster of the Gulf of Mexico oil spill reminds us that our welfare depends on a healthy marine ecosystem and that the oceans are vulnerable to human activities. The oceans sustain a vast wealth of biological ersity, deliver critical ecosystem services, supply valuable natural resources, and are a central component of the climate system. It is therefore critical that the current ocean-observing system be extended to cover a wider range of ocean properties.
Distinguishing the Quasi-Decadal and Multidecadal Sea Level and Climate Variations in the Pacific: Implications for the ENSO-Like Low-Frequency Variability
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 07-2017
Abstract: Low-frequency sea level variations with periods longer than interannual time scales have been receiving much attention recently, with the aim of distinguishing the anthropogenic regional sea level change signal from the natural fluctuations. Based on the available sea level products, this study finds that the dominant low-frequency sea level mode in the Pacific basin has both quasi-decadal variations and a multidecadal trend reversal in the early 1990s. The dominant sea level modes on these two time scales have different tropical structures: a west–east seesaw in the tropical Pacific on the multidecadal time scale and a dipole between the western and central tropical Pacific on the quasi-decadal time scale. These two sea level modes in the Pacific basin are closely related to the ENSO-like low-frequency climate variability on respective time scales but feature distinct surface wind forcing patterns and subbasin climate processes. The multidecadal sea level mode is associated with the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) and Aleutian low variations in the North Pacific and tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies toward the eastern basin, while the quasi-decadal sea level mode is accompanied by tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies centered in the central basin along with the North Pacific part, which resembles the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) and its oceanic expressions [i.e., the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO) and the Victoria mode]. The authors further conclude that the ENSO-like low-frequency variability, which has dominant influences on the Pacific sea level and climate, comprises at least two distinct modes with different spatial structures on quasi-decadal and multidecadal time scales, respectively.
Sea-Level and Ocean Heat-Content Change
Publisher: Elsevier
Date: 2013
Regional Sea Level Variability and Trends, 1960–2007: A Comparison of Sea Level Reconstructions and Ocean Syntheses
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 11-2017
DOI: 10.1002/2017JC012992
A high-end estimate of sea-level rise for practitioners
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 07-03-2022
Evaluation of the interdecadal variability of sea surface temperature and sea level in the Pacific in CMIP3 and CMIP5 models
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 29-12-2015
DOI: 10.1002/JOC.4587
A SOUTHERN-HEMISPHERE VERIFICATION FOR THE TOPEX/POSEIDON SATELLITE ALTIMETER MISSION
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 15-12-1994
DOI: 10.1029/94JC01382
The Australian Coastal Experiment: A Search for Coastal-Trapped Waves
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 07-1986
Twentieth-Century Global-Mean Sea Level Rise: Is the Whole Greater than the Sum of the Parts?
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 07-2013
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00319.1
Abstract: Confidence in projections of global-mean sea level rise (GMSLR) depends on an ability to account for GMSLR during the twentieth century. There are contributions from ocean thermal expansion, mass loss from glaciers and ice sheets, groundwater extraction, and reservoir impoundment. Progress has been made toward solving the “enigma” of twentieth-century GMSLR, which is that the observed GMSLR has previously been found to exceed the sum of estimated contributions, especially for the earlier decades. The authors propose the following: thermal expansion simulated by climate models may previously have been underestimated because of their not including volcanic forcing in their control state the rate of glacier mass loss was larger than previously estimated and was not smaller in the first half than in the second half of the century the Greenland ice sheet could have made a positive contribution throughout the century and groundwater depletion and reservoir impoundment, which are of opposite sign, may have been approximately equal in magnitude. It is possible to reconstruct the time series of GMSLR from the quantified contributions, apart from a constant residual term, which is small enough to be explained as a long-term contribution from the Antarctic ice sheet. The reconstructions account for the observation that the rate of GMSLR was not much larger during the last 50 years than during the twentieth century as a whole, despite the increasing anthropogenic forcing. Semiempirical methods for projecting GMSLR depend on the existence of a relationship between global climate change and the rate of GMSLR, but the implication of the authors' closure of the budget is that such a relationship is weak or absent during the twentieth century.
OCEAN HEAT-TRANSPORT ACROSS 24-DEGREES-N IN THE PACIFIC
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 03-1991
Seasonal coastal sea level prediction using a dynamical model
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 22-08-2015
DOI: 10.1002/2015GL065091
Sensitivity of Observationally Based Estimates of Ocean Heat Content and Thermal Expansion to Vertical Interpolation Schemes
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 12-09-2022
Capabilities of Global Ocean Programmes to Inform Climate Services
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 2010
Ocean-only FAFMIP: Understanding Regional Patterns of Ocean Heat Content and Dynamic Sea Level Change.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 04-01-2020
Processes responsible for the Southern Hemisphere ocean heat uptake and redistribution under anthropogenic warming
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 05-2020
Abstract: The Southern Hemisphere oceans absorb most of the excess heat stored in the climate system due to anthropogenic warming. By analyzing future climate projections from a large ensemble of the CMIP5 models under a high emission scenario (RCP8.5), we investigate how the atmospheric forcing and ocean circulation determine heat uptake and redistribution in the Southern Hemisphere oceans. About two-thirds of the net surface heat gain in the high-latitude Southern Ocean is redistributed northward, leading to enhanced and deep-reaching warming at middle latitudes near the boundary between the subtropical gyres and the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. The projected magnitudes of the ocean warming are closely related to the magnitudes of the wind and gyre boundary poleward shifts across the models. For those models with the simulated gyre boundary biased equatorward, the latitude where the projected ocean warming peaks is also located farther equatorward and a larger poleward shift of the gyre boundary is projected. In a theoretical framework, the subsurface ocean changes are explored using three distinctive processes on the temperature–salinity diagram: pure heave, pure warming, and pure freshening. The enhanced middle-latitude warming and the deepening of isopycnals are attributed to the pure heave and pure warming processes, likely related to the wind-driven heat convergence and the accumulation of extra surface heat uptake by the background ocean circulation, respectively. The equatorward and downward subductions of the surface heat and freshwater input at high latitudes (i.e., pure warming and pure freshening processes) result in cooling and freshening spiciness changes on density surfaces within the Subantarctic Mode Water and Antarctic Intermediate Water.
How Fast Are Sea Levels Rising?
Publisher: American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
Date: 26-10-2001
Warming of the water column in the southwest Pacific Ocean
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 05-1992
DOI: 10.1038/357059A0
Global sea-level budget 1993–present
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 28-08-2018
DOI: 10.5194/ESSD-10-1551-2018
Abstract: Abstract. Global mean sea level is an integral of changes occurring in the climate system in response to unforced climate variability as well as natural and anthropogenic forcing factors. Its temporal evolution allows changes (e.g., acceleration) to be detected in one or more components. Study of the sea-level budget provides constraints on missing or poorly known contributions, such as the unsurveyed deep ocean or the still uncertain land water component. In the context of the World Climate Research Programme Grand Challenge entitled Regional Sea Level and Coastal Impacts, an international effort involving the sea-level community worldwide has been recently initiated with the objective of assessing the various datasets used to estimate components of the sea-level budget during the altimetry era (1993 to present). These datasets are based on the combination of a broad range of space-based and in situ observations, model estimates, and algorithms. Evaluating their quality, quantifying uncertainties and identifying sources of discrepancies between component estimates is extremely useful for various applications in climate research. This effort involves several tens of scientists from about 50 research teams/institutions worldwide (rand-challenges/gc-sea-level, last access: 22 August 2018). The results presented in this paper are a synthesis of the first assessment performed during 2017–2018. We present estimates of the altimetry-based global mean sea level (average rate of 3.1 ± 0.3 mm yr−1 and acceleration of 0.1 mm yr−2 over 1993–present), as well as of the different components of the sea-level budget (0.17882/54854, last access: 22 August 2018). We further examine closure of the sea-level budget, comparing the observed global mean sea level with the sum of components. Ocean thermal expansion, glaciers, Greenland and Antarctica contribute 42 %, 21 %, 15 % and 8 % to the global mean sea level over the 1993–present period. We also study the sea-level budget over 2005–present, using GRACE-based ocean mass estimates instead of the sum of in idual mass components. Our results demonstrate that the global mean sea level can be closed to within 0.3 mm yr−1 (1σ). Substantial uncertainty remains for the land water storage component, as shown when examining in idual mass contributions to sea level.
Simulating the Role of Surface Forcing on Observed Multidecadal Upper-Ocean Salinity Changes
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 18-07-2016
Abstract: The ocean’s surface salinity field has changed over the observed record, driven by an intensification of the water cycle in response to global warming. However, the origin and causes of the coincident subsurface salinity changes are not fully understood. The relationship between imposed surface salinity and temperature changes and their corresponding subsurface changes is investigated using idealized ocean model experiments. The ocean’s surface has warmed by about 0.5°C (50 yr)−1 while the surface salinity pattern has lified by about 8% per 50 years. The idealized experiments are constructed for a 50-yr period, allowing a qualitative comparison to the observed salinity and temperature changes previously reported. The comparison suggests that changes in both modeled surface salinity and temperature are required to replicate the three-dimensional pattern of observed salinity change. The results also show that the effects of surface changes in temperature and salinity act linearly on the changes in subsurface salinity. Surface salinity pattern lification appears to be the leading driver of subsurface salinity change on depth surfaces however, surface warming is also required to replicate the observed patterns of change on density surfaces. This is the result of isopycnal migration modified by the ocean surface warming, which produces significant salinity changes on density surfaces.
Fifty Year Trends in Global Ocean Heat Content Traced to Surface Heat Fluxes in the Sub‐Polar Ocean
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 24-04-2021
DOI: 10.1029/2020GL091439
Abstract: The ocean has absorbed approximately 90% of the accumulated heat in the climate system since 1970. As global warming accelerates, understanding ocean heat content changes and tracing these to surface heat input is increasingly important. We introduce a novel framework by organizing the ocean into temperature‐percentiles from warmest to coldest, allowing us to trace ocean temperature changes to changes in surface fluxes and mixing. Applying this framework to observations and historical CMIP6 simulations, we find that 50 ± 6% of surface heat uptake between 1970 and 2014 is confined to isotherms in the coldest 90% of the ocean volume. These isotherms outcrop over only 23% of the ocean's surface area in the sub‐polar regions, implying a disproportionately large heat input per unit area. Additionally, a cooling bias in the CMIP6 models is traced to inaccurate sea surface temperatures and surface heat fluxes into the warmest 5%–20% of the ocean volume.
Evaluating Model Simulations of Twentieth-Century Sea-Level Rise. Part II: Regional Sea-Level Changes
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 11-2017
Abstract: Twentieth-century regional sea level changes are estimated from 12 climate models from phase 5 of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The output of the CMIP5 climate model simulations was used to calculate the global and regional sea level changes associated with dynamic sea level, atmospheric loading, glacier mass changes, and ice sheet surface mass balance contributions. The contribution from groundwater depletion, reservoir storage, and dynamic ice sheet mass changes are estimated from observations as they are not simulated by climate models. All contributions are summed, including the glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) contribution, and compared to observational estimates from 27 tide gauge records over the twentieth century (1900–2015). A general agreement is found between the simulated sea level and tide gauge records in terms of interannual to multidecadal variability over 1900–2015. But climate models tend to systematically underestimate the observed sea level trends, particularly in the first half of the twentieth century. The corrections based on attributable biases between observations and models that have been identified in Part I of this two-part paper result in an improved explanation of the spatial variability in observed sea level trends by climate models. Climate models show that the spatial variability in sea level trends observed by tide gauge records is dominated by the GIA contribution and the steric contribution over 1900–2015. Climate models also show that it is important to include all contributions to sea level changes as they cause significant local deviations note, for ex le, the groundwater depletion around India, which is responsible for the low twentieth-century sea level rise in the region.
Real-Time Screening Techniques for Doppler Current Profiler Data
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 12-1987
Projected ocean warming constrained by the ocean observational record
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 13-09-2021
Comment on “Ocean heat content and Earthʼs radiation imbalance. II. Relation to climate shifts”
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 06-0002
Eddy shedding and energy conversions in the East Australian Current
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 09-2006
DOI: 10.1029/2006JC003592
Current and Density Observations across the Wake of Hurricane Gay
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 02-1989
A High‐End Estimate of Sea Level Rise for Practitioners
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 11-2022
DOI: 10.1029/2022EF002751
Abstract: Sea level rise (SLR) is a long‐lasting consequence of climate change because global anthropogenic warming takes centuries to millennia to equilibrate for the deep ocean and ice sheets. SLR projections based on climate models support policy analysis, risk assessment and adaptation planning today, despite their large uncertainties. The central range of the SLR distribution is estimated by process‐based models. However, risk‐averse practitioners often require information about plausible future conditions that lie in the tails of the SLR distribution, which are poorly defined by existing models. Here, a community effort combining scientists and practitioners builds on a framework of discussing physical evidence to quantify high‐end global SLR for practitioners. The approach is complementary to the IPCC AR6 report and provides further physically plausible high‐end scenarios. High‐end estimates for the different SLR components are developed for two climate scenarios at two timescales. For global warming of +2°C in 2100 (RCP2.6/SSP1‐2.6) relative to pre‐industrial values our high‐end global SLR estimates are up to 0.9 m in 2100 and 2.5 m in 2300. Similarly, for a (RCP8.5/SSP5‐8.5), we estimate up to 1.6 m in 2100 and up to 10.4 m in 2300. The large and growing differences between the scenarios beyond 2100 emphasize the long‐term benefits of mitigation. However, even a modest 2°C warming may cause multi‐meter SLR on centennial time scales with profound consequences for coastal areas. Earlier high‐end assessments focused on instability mechanisms in Antarctica, while here we emphasize the importance of the timing of ice shelf collapse around Antarctica. This is highly uncertain due to low understanding of the driving processes. Hence both process understanding and emission scenario control high‐end SLR.
Statistical description of the East Australian Current low-frequency variability from the WOCE PCM3 array
Publisher: CSIRO Publishing
Date: 2006
DOI: 10.1071/MF05058
Abstract: The in situ dataset used in the current study consists of the Pacific Current Meter 3 (PCM3) array, which was a significant part of the Australian contribution to the World Ocean Circulation Experiment to study the variability of the East Australian Current (EAC), and was operational between September 1991 and March 1994. Area-preserving spectral analysis has been used to investigate the typical time scales observed by the current meters. As a general rule, the spectra from the top layers of the shallow (1, 2 and 3) and the deep (4, 5 and 6) moorings have a distinct peak in the temporal mesoscale band (periods between 70 and 170 days), with a general redistribution of energy towards the higher-frequencies near the ocean floor. This peak has been linked with eddy variability of the EAC system, which influences the fluctuations of the current main jet. The vertical modes of the velocity profile show that the strong surface-intensified baroclinic signal of the EAC dominated the variability at mooring 4 location. Further offshore the predominant configuration resembles more closely the barotropic mode. Ultimately, spatial empirical orthogonal functions (EOF) analysis point out the impact of the presence/absence of the EAC jet in the array.
Strong export of Antarctic Bottom Water east of the Kerguelen plateau
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 25-04-2010
DOI: 10.1038/NGEO842
Sea-Level Trend Uncertainty With Pacific Climatic Variability and Temporally-Correlated Noise
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 03-2018
DOI: 10.1002/2017JC013655
Ocean‐Only FAFMIP: Understanding Regional Patterns of Ocean Heat Content and Dynamic Sea Level Change
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 08-2020
DOI: 10.1029/2019MS002027
Abstract: There is large uncertainty in the future regional sea level change under anthropogenic climate change. Our study presents and uses a novel design of ocean general circulation model (OGCM) experiments to investigate the ocean's response to surface buoyancy and momentum flux perturbations without atmosphere‐ocean feedbacks (e.g., without surface restoring or bulk formulae), as part of the Flux‐Anomaly‐Forced Model Intercomparison Project (FAFMIP). In an ensemble of OGCMs forced with identical surface flux perturbations, simulated dynamic sea level (DSL) and ocean heat content (OHC) change demonstrate considerable disagreement. In the North Atlantic, the disagreement in DSL and OHC change between models is mainly due to differences in the residual (resolved and eddy) circulation change, with a large spread in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) weakening (20–50%). In the western North Pacific, OHC change is similar among the OGCM ensemble, but the contributing physical processes differ. For the Southern Ocean, isopycnal and diapycnal mixing change dominate the spread in OHC change. In addition, a component of the atmosphere‐ocean feedbacks are quantified by comparing coupled, atmosphere‐ocean GCM (AOGCM) and OGCM FAFMIP experiments with consistent ocean models. We find that there is 10% more AMOC weakening in AOGCMs relative to OGCMs, since the extratropical North Atlantic SST cooling due to heat redistribution lifies the surface heat flux perturbation. This component of the atmosphere‐ocean feedbacks enhances the pattern of North Atlantic OHC and DSL change, with relatively stronger increases and decreases in the tropics and extratropics, respectively.
Evaluation of the Local Sea‐Level Budget at Tide Gauges Since 1958
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 21-10-2021
DOI: 10.1029/2021GL094502
Abstract: Although global mean sea‐level rise since 1900 and regional mean sea‐level change since the 1960s have been accounted for in terms of the sum of contributions, the same budget closure has not been achieved for local relative sea‐level change from a global network of tide gauges. To address this, we combine new estimates of sterodynamic sea‐level change (SDSL including ocean dynamics), glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA), change in land ice mass and terrestrial water storage, and other local vertical land motion. We find that the observed trends over 1958–2015 at all 272 tide gauges distributed worldwide agree with the sum of contributions (within 90% confidence estimates), with similar mean trend (1.1 mm yr −1 ) and comparable spatial variability (standard deviation of 2.0 and 1.9 mm yr −1 respectively). SDSL is the dominant contribution to both local observed mean trend and spatial variability, except at locations close to former ice‐sheets, where GIA dominates.
Energy budget constraints on climate response
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 19-05-2013
DOI: 10.1038/NGEO1836
Detecting a forced signal in satellite-era sea-level change
Publisher: IOP Publishing
Date: 28-08-2020
Abstract: In this study, we compare the spatial patterns of simulated geocentric sea-level change to observations from satellite altimetry over the period 1993–2015 to assess whether a forced signal is detectable. This is challenging, as on these time scales internal variability plays an important role and may dominate the observed spatial patterns of regional sea-level change. Model simulations of regional sea-level change associated with sterodynamic sea level, atmospheric loading, glacier mass change, and ice-sheet surface mass balance changes are combined with observations of groundwater depletion, reservoir storage, and dynamic ice-sheet mass changes. The resulting total geocentric regional sea-level change is then compared to independent measurements from satellite altimeter observations. The detectability of the climate-forced signal is assessed by comparing the model ensemble mean of the ‘historical’ simulations with the characteristics of sea-level variability in pre-industrial control simulations. To further minimize the impact of internal variability, zonal averages were produced. We find that, in all ocean basins, zonally averaged simulated sea-level changes are consistent with observations within s ling uncertainties associated with simulated internal variability of the sterodynamic component. Furthermore, the simulated zonally averaged sea-level change cannot be explained by internal variability alone—thus we conclude that the observations include a forced contribution that is detectable at basin scales.
Freshwater and Heat Changes in the North and South Pacific Oceans between the 1960s and 1985–94
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 04-2001
Regional dynamic sea level simulated in the CMIP5 and CMIP6 models: mean biases, future projections, and their linkages
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 08-2020
Abstract: The ocean dynamic sea level (DSL) is an important component of regional sea level projections. In this study, we analyze mean states and future projections of the DSL from the global coupled climate models participating in phase 5 and phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5 and CMIP6, respectively). Despite persistent biases relative to observations, both CMIP5 and CMIP6 simulate the mean sea level reasonably well. The equatorward bias of the Southern Hemisphere westerly wind stress is reduced from CMIP5 to CMIP6, which improves the simulated mean sea level in the Southern Ocean. The CMIP5 and CMIP6 DSL projections exhibit very similar features and intermodel uncertainties. With several models having a notably high climate sensitivity, CMIP6 projects larger DSL changes in the North Atlantic and Arctic associated with a larger weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). We further identify linkages between model mean states and future projections by looking for their intermodel relationships. The common cold-tongue bias leads to an underestimation of DSL rise in the western tropical Pacific. Models with their simulated midlatitude westerly winds located more equatorward tend to project larger DSL changes in the Southern Ocean and North Pacific. In contrast, a more equatorward location of the North Atlantic westerly winds or a weaker AMOC under current climatology is associated with a smaller weakening of the AMOC and weaker DSL changes in the North Atlantic and coastal Arctic. Our study provides useful emergent constraints for DSL projections and highlights the importance of reducing model mean-state biases for future projections.
A mechanism for near-shore concentration and estuarine recruitment of post-larval Penaeus plebejus hess (Decapoda, Penaeidae)
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 1995
EDDY MOMENTUM FLUX AND ITS CONTRIBUTION TO THE SOUTHERN-OCEAN MOMENTUM BALANCE
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 06-1992
DOI: 10.1038/357482A0
A review of global ocean temperature observations: Implications for ocean heat content estimates and climate change
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 09-2013
DOI: 10.1002/ROG.20022
Satellite Altimetry for Geodetic, Oceanographic, and Climate Studies in the Australian Region
Publisher: Springer Berlin Heidelberg
Date: 10-08-2010
Using Sea Level Rise Projections for Urban Planning in Australia
Publisher: Coastal Education and Research Foundation
Date: 04-2004
Regional Sea-Level Projection
Publisher: American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
Date: 04-05-2012
Abstract: More accurate projections of regional sea levels are needed to inform adaptation and mitigation planning.
Understanding Sea‐Level Rise and Variability
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 05-07-2010
Energy Conservation in the Australian Coastal Experiment: Coastal-Trapped Wave Calculations
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 07-1990
Coastal sea level changes, observed and projected during the 20th and 21st century
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 14-10-2015
Variability and trends in the directional wave climate of the Southern Hemisphere
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 03-04-2010
DOI: 10.1002/JOC.1900
Recent Climate Observations Compared to Projections
Publisher: American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
Date: 04-05-2007
Abstract: We present recent observed climate trends for carbon dioxide concentration, global mean air temperature, and global sea level, and we compare these trends to previous model projections as summarized in the 2001 assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The IPCC scenarios and projections start in the year 1990, which is also the base year of the Kyoto protocol, in which almost all industrialized nations accepted a binding commitment to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions. The data available for the period since 1990 raise concerns that the climate system, in particular sea level, may be responding more quickly to climate change than our current generation of models indicates.
Detection and attribution of global mean thermosteric sea level change
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 22-08-2014
DOI: 10.1002/2014GL061356
Coastal-Trapped Waves on the East Australian Continental Shelf Part II: Model Verification
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 11-1986
TOPEX/Poseidon and Jason-1: Absolute calibration in Bass Strait, Australia
Publisher: Informa UK Limited
Date: 2004
Ocean Temperature and Salinity Contributions to Global and Regional Sea‐Level Change
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 05-07-2010
The Sea Level Response to External Forcings in Historical Simulations of CMIP5 Climate Models*
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Date: 30-10-2015
Abstract: Changes in Earth’s climate are influenced by internal climate variability and external forcings, such as changes in solar radiation, volcanic eruptions, anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHG), and aerosols. Although the response of surface temperature to external forcings has been studied extensively, this has not been done for sea level. Here, a range of climate model experiments for the twentieth century is used to study the response of global and regional sea level change to external climate forcings. Both the global mean thermosteric sea level and the regional dynamic sea level patterns show clear responses to anthropogenic forcings that are significantly different from internal climate variability and larger than the difference between models driven by the same external forcing. The regional sea level patterns are directly related to changes in surface winds in response to the external forcings. The spread between different realizations of the same model experiment is consistent with internal climate variability derived from preindustrial control simulations. The spread between the different models is larger than the internal variability, mainly in regions with large sea level responses. Although the sea level responses to GHG and anthropogenic aerosol forcing oppose each other in the global mean, there are differences on a regional scale, offering opportunities for distinguishing between these two forcings in observed sea level change.
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