ORCID Profile
0000-0003-0532-4824
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Research Topics
In Research Link Australia (RLA), "Research Topics" refer to ANZSRC FOR and SEO codes. These topics are either sourced from ANZSRC FOR and SEO codes listed in researchers' related grants or generated by a large language model (LLM) based on their publications.
Top 5 Research Topics
ANZSRC Field of Research (FoR)
Ecological Applications | Ecological Impacts of Climate Change | Fisheries Sciences not elsewhere classified | Conservation and Biodiversity | Aquaculture | Ecological Applications not elsewhere classified | Fisheries Sciences | Oceanography | Physical Oceanography | Glaciology | Climate Change Processes | Environmental Impact Assessment | Fish Physiology and Genetics | Agricultural Marine Biotechnology |
ANZSRC Socio-Economic Objective (SEO)
Ecosystem Adaptation to Climate Change | Environmentally Sustainable Animal Production not elsewhere classified | Effects of Climate Change and Variability on Antarctic and Sub-Antarctic Environments (excl. Social Impacts) | Climate Change Adaptation Measures | Wild Caught Fin Fish (excl. Tuna) | Aquaculture Rock Lobster | Aquaculture Fin Fish (excl. Tuna) | Social Impacts of Climate Change and Variability | Fisheries - Wild Caught not elsewhere classified | Global Effects of Climate Change and Variability (excl. Australia, New Zealand, Antarctica and the South Pacific) (excl. Social Impacts) | Fisheries - Aquaculture not elsewhere classified | Expanding Knowledge in the Environmental Sciences | Expanding Knowledge in the Earth Sciences | Marine Flora, Fauna and Biodiversity
Related Links
Publications
To Achieve a Sustainable Blue Future, Progress Assessments Must Include Interdependencies between the Sustainable Development Goals
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 02-2020
Using an integral projection model to assess the effect of temperature on the growth of gilthead seabream Sparus aurata
Publisher: Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Date: 03-05-2018
Satellite remote sensing of ecosystem functions: opportunities, challenges and way forward
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 10-08-2017
DOI: 10.1002/RSE2.59
Time to rethink trophic levels in aquaculture policy
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 08-02-2021
DOI: 10.1111/RAQ.12535
Abstract: Aquaculture policy often promotes production of low‐trophic level species for sustainable industry growth. Yet, the application of the trophic level concept to aquaculture is complex, and its value for assessing sustainability is further complicated by continual reformulation of feeds. The majority of fed farmed fish and invertebrate species are produced using human‐made compound feeds that can differ markedly from the diet of the same species in the wild and continue to change in composition. Using data on aquaculture feeds, we show that technical advances have substantially decreased the mean effective trophic level of farmed species, such as salmon (mean TL = 3.48 to 2.42) and tilapia (2.32 to 2.06), from 1995 to 2015. As farmed species erge in effective trophic level from their wild counterparts, they are coalescing at a similar effective trophic level due to standardisation of feeds. This pattern blurs the interpretation of trophic level in aquaculture because it can no longer be viewed as a trait of the farmed species, but rather is a dynamic feature of the production system. Guidance based on wild trophic position or historical resource use is therefore misleading. Effective aquaculture policy needs to avoid overly simplistic sustainability indicators such as trophic level. Instead, employing empirically derived metrics based on the specific farmed properties of species groups, management techniques and advances in feed formulation will be crucial for achieving truly sustainable options for farmed seafood.
Integrated modelling to support decision-making for marine social-ecological systems in Australia
Publisher: Oxford University Press (OUP)
Date: 26-05-2017
Abstract: Policy- and decision-makers require assessments of status and trends for marine species, habitats, and ecosystems to understand if human activities in the marine environment are sustainable, particularly in the face of global change. Central to many assessments are statistical and dynamical models of populations, communities, ecosystems, and their socioeconomic systems and management frameworks. The establishment of a national system that could facilitate the development of such model-based assessments has been identified as a priority for addressing management challenges for Australia’s marine environment. Given that most assessments require cross-scale information, in idual models cannot capture all of the spatial, temporal, biological, and socioeconomic scales that are typically needed. Coupling or integrating models across scales and domains can expand the scope for developing comprehensive and internally consistent, system-level assessments, including higher-level feedbacks in social–ecological systems. In this article, we summarize: (i) integrated modelling for marine systems currently being undertaken in Australia, (ii) methods used for integration and comparison of models, and (iii) improvements to facilitate further integration, particularly with respect to standards and specifications. We consider future needs for integrated modelling of marine social–ecological systems in Australia and provide a set of recommendations for priority focus areas in the development of a national approach to integrated modelling. These recommendations draw on—and have broader relevance for—international efforts around integrated modelling to inform decision-making for marine systems.
Fish body sizes change with temperature but not all species shrink with warming
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 06-04-2020
Assumptions behind size-based ecosystem models are realistic
Publisher: Oxford University Press (OUP)
Date: 29-01-2016
Abstract: A recent publication about balanced harvesting (Froese et al., ICES Journal of Marine Science 73: 1640–1650) contains several erroneous statements about size-spectrum models. We refute the statements by showing that the assumptions pertaining to size-spectrum models discussed by Froese et al. are realistic and consistent. We further show that the assumption about density-dependence being described by a stock recruitment relationship is responsible for determining whether a peak in the cohort biomass of a population occurs late or early in life. Finally, we argue that there is indeed a constructive role for a wide suite of ecosystem models to evaluate fishing strategies in an ecosystem context.
Globally consistent reef size spectra integrating fishes and invertebrates
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 17-12-2021
DOI: 10.1111/ELE.13661
Next-generation ensemble projections reveal higher climate risks for marine ecosystems
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 21-10-2021
DOI: 10.1038/S41558-021-01173-9
Abstract: Projections of climate change impacts on marine ecosystems have revealed long-term declines in global marine animal biomass and unevenly distributed impacts on fisheries. Here we apply an enhanced suite of global marine ecosystem models from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (Fish-MIP), forced by new-generation Earth system model outputs from Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), to provide insights into how projected climate change will affect future ocean ecosystems. Compared with the previous generation CMIP5-forced Fish-MIP ensemble, the new ensemble ecosystem simulations show a greater decline in mean global ocean animal biomass under both strong-mitigation and high-emissions scenarios due to elevated warming, despite greater uncertainty in net primary production in the high-emissions scenario. Regional shifts in the direction of biomass changes highlight the continued and urgent need to reduce uncertainty in the projected responses of marine ecosystems to climate change to help support adaptation planning.
Putting all foods on the same table: Achieving sustainable food systems requires full accounting
Publisher: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Date: 10-09-2019
A functional size-spectrum model of the global marine ecosystem that resolves zooplankton composition
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 11-2020
Managing consequences of climate-driven species redistribution requires integration of ecology, conservation and social science
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 06-2018
DOI: 10.1111/BRV.12344
Abstract: Climate change is driving a pervasive global redistribution of the planet's species. Species redistribution poses new questions for the study of ecosystems, conservation science and human societies that require a coordinated and integrated approach. Here we review recent progress, key gaps and strategic directions in this nascent research area, emphasising emerging themes in species redistribution biology, the importance of understanding underlying drivers and the need to anticipate novel outcomes of changes in species ranges. We highlight that species redistribution has manifest implications across multiple temporal and spatial scales and from genes to ecosystems. Understanding range shifts from ecological, physiological, genetic and biogeographical perspectives is essential for informing changing paradigms in conservation science and for designing conservation strategies that incorporate changing population connectivity and advance adaptation to climate change. Species redistributions present challenges for human well-being, environmental management and sustainable development. By synthesising recent approaches, theories and tools, our review establishes an interdisciplinary foundation for the development of future research on species redistribution. Specifically, we demonstrate how ecological, conservation and social research on species redistribution can best be achieved by working across disciplinary boundaries to develop and implement solutions to climate change challenges. Future studies should therefore integrate existing and complementary scientific frameworks while incorporating social science and human-centred approaches. Finally, we emphasise that the best science will not be useful unless more scientists engage with managers, policy makers and the public to develop responsible and socially acceptable options for the global challenges arising from species redistributions.
Food production shocks across land and sea
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 28-01-2019
Self-organisation of zooplankton communities produces similar food chain lengths throughout the ocean
Publisher: Research Square Platform LLC
Date: 25-04-2022
DOI: 10.21203/RS.3.RS-1186379/V1
Abstract: For over 50 years, the conceptualisation of low-nutrient oligotrophic systems having longer food chains and thus lower energy transfer to fish than their high-nutrient eutrophic counterparts 1 has achieved the status of an ecological paradigm. However, recent global assessments indicate global fish biomass could be much higher than previously thought 2–4 , suggesting that our traditional understanding of food webs may need to be revisited. Here, we challenge the classical paradigm by exploring the role of zooplankton in food webs across the world’s oceans. Using observed zooplankton size spectra, and output from a size-spectrum model that resolves nine zooplankton groups, we conclude that food chains in oligotrophic (low-nutrient) and eutrophic (high-nutrient) systems have similar lengths. We offer a compelling hypothesis to explain this emergent pattern: self-organisation of zooplankton groups across the global productivity gradient regulates food chain length. We find that in oligotrophic systems the increased carnivory and longer food chains are offset by relatively large gelatinous filter feeders eating the dominant small phytoplankton, resulting in shorter-than-expected food chains, but decreasing food quality for fish. Our findings highlight the pivotal role zooplankton play in regulating energy transfer. Better resolution of zooplankton groups, their feeding relationships and carbon content in models will increase our ability to estimate current global fish biomass 5 , project future fish biomass under climate change 6–8 , and provide more-robust forecasts of nutrient 9 and carbon cycling 10 .
Climate-driven zooplankton shifts could cause global declines in food quality for fish
Publisher: Research Square Platform LLC
Date: 08-11-2021
DOI: 10.21203/RS.3.RS-953268/V1
Abstract: Although zooplankton are the primary energy pathway from phytoplankton to fish, we understand little about how climate change will modify zooplankton communities and their role in marine ecosystems. Using a trait-based marine ecosystem model resolving key zooplankton groups, we assess climate change impacts on zooplankton community composition and implications for marine food webs globally. We find that future oceans favour food webs increasingly dominated by carnivorous (chaetognaths, jellyfish and carnivorous copepods) and gelatinous filter-feeding zooplankton (larvaceans and salps). By providing a direct energetic pathway from small phytoplankton to fish, the rise of gelatinous filter-feeders largely offsets the increase in trophic steps between primary producers and fish from declining phytoplankton production and increasing carnivorous zooplankton. However, our results indicate that future fish communities face not only reduced carrying capacity from falling primary production, but also lower quality diets as environmental conditions increasingly favour gelatinous zooplankton.
Scaling marine fish movement behavior from individuals to populations
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 25-06-2018
DOI: 10.1002/ECE3.4223
Global adoption of novel aquaculture feeds could substantially reduce forage fish demand by 2030
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 19-05-2020
The specificity of marine ecological indicators to fishing in the face of environmental change: A multi-model evaluation
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 06-2018
Where the Ecological Gaps Remain, a Modelers' Perspective
Publisher: Frontiers Media SA
Date: 08-11-2019
Using stable isotope data to advance marine food web modelling
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 25-01-2019
Potential impacts of climate change on agriculture and fisheries production in 72 tropical coastal communities
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 05-07-2022
DOI: 10.1038/S41467-022-30991-4
Abstract: Climate change is expected to profoundly affect key food production sectors, including fisheries and agriculture. However, the potential impacts of climate change on these sectors are rarely considered jointly, especially below national scales, which can mask substantial variability in how communities will be affected. Here, we combine socioeconomic surveys of 3,008 households and intersectoral multi-model simulation outputs to conduct a sub-national analysis of the potential impacts of climate change on fisheries and agriculture in 72 coastal communities across five Indo-Pacific countries (Indonesia, Madagascar, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, and Tanzania). Our study reveals three key findings: First, overall potential losses to fisheries are higher than potential losses to agriculture. Second, while most locations ( 2/3) will experience potential losses to both fisheries and agriculture simultaneously, climate change mitigation could reduce the proportion of places facing that double burden. Third, potential impacts are more likely in communities with lower socioeconomic status.
Decades of dietary data demonstrate regional food web structures in the Southern Ocean
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 09-12-2021
DOI: 10.1002/ECE3.7017
Abstract: Understanding regional‐scale food web structure in the Southern Ocean is critical to informing fisheries management and assessments of climate change impacts on Southern Ocean ecosystems and ecosystem services. Historically, a large component of Southern Ocean ecosystem research has focused on Antarctic krill, which provide a short, highly efficient food chain, linking primary producers to higher trophic levels. Over the last 15 years, the presence of alternative energy pathways has been identified and hypotheses on their relative importance in different regions raised. Using the largest circumpolar dietary database ever compiled, we tested these hypotheses using an empirical circumpolar comparison of food webs across the four major regions/sectors of the Southern Ocean (defined as south of 40°S) within the austral summer period. We used network analyses and generalizations of taxonomic food web structure to confirm that while Antarctic krill are dominant as the mid‐trophic level for the Atlantic and East Pacific food webs (including the Scotia Arc and Western Antarctic Peninsula), mesopelagic fish and other krill species are dominant contributors to predator diets in the Indian and West Pacific regions (East Antarctica and the Ross Sea). We also highlight how tracking data and habitat modeling for mobile top predators in the Southern Ocean show that these species integrate food webs over large regional scales. Our study provides a quantitative assessment, based on field observations, of the degree of regional differentiation in Southern Ocean food webs and the relative importance of alternative energy pathways between regions.
Community size structure varies with predator–prey size relationships and temperature across Australian reefs
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 04-2022
DOI: 10.1002/ECE3.8789
Abstract: Climate change and fisheries exploitation are dramatically changing the abundances, species composition, and size spectra of fish communities. We explore whether variation in ‘abundance size spectra’, a widely studied ecosystem feature, is influenced by a parameter theorized to govern the shape of size‐structured ecosystems—the relationship between the sizes of predators and their prey (predator–prey mass ratios, or PPMRs). PPMR estimates are lacking for avast number of fish species, including at the scale of trophic guilds. Using measurements of 8128 prey items in gut contents of 97 reef fish species, we established predator–prey mass ratios (PPMRs) for four major trophic guilds (piscivores, invertivores, planktivores, and herbivores) using linear mixed effects models. To assess the theoretical predictions that higher community‐level PPMRs leads to shallower size spectrum slopes, we compared observations of both ecosystem metrics for ~15,000 coastal reef sites distributed around Australia. PPMRs of in idual fishes were remarkably high (median ~71,000), with significant variation between different trophic guilds (~890 for piscivores ~83,000 for planktivores), and ~8700 for whole communities. Community‐level PPMRs were positively related to size spectrum slopes, broadly consistent with theory, however, this pattern was also influenced by the latitudinal temperature gradient. Tropical reefs showed a stronger relationship between community‐level PPMRs and community size spectrum slopes than temperate reefs. The extent that these patterns apply outside Australia and consequences for community structure and dynamics are key areas for future investigation.
Predicting global tuna vulnerabilities with spatial, economic, biological and climatic considerations
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 12-07-2018
DOI: 10.1038/S41598-018-28805-Z
Abstract: Overfishing impacts the three pillars of sustainability: social, ecological and economic. Tuna represent a significant part of the global seafood market with an annual value exceeding USD$42B and are vulnerable to overfishing. Our understanding of how social and economic drivers contribute to overexploitation is not well developed. We address this problem by integrating social, ecological and economic indicators to help predict changes in exploitation status, namely fishing mortality relative to the level that would support the maximum sustainable yield (F/F MSY ). To do this we examined F/F MSY for 23 stocks exploited by more than 80 states across the world’s oceans. Low-HDI countries were most at risk of overexploitation of the tuna stocks we examined and increases in economic and social development were not always associated with improved stock status. In the short-term frozen price was a dominant predictor of F/F MSY providing a positive link between the market dynamics and the quantity of fish landed. Given the dependence on seafood in low-income regions, improved measures to safeguard against fisheries overexploitation in the face of global change and uncertainty are needed.
Global in scope and regionally rich: an IndiSeas workshop helps shape the future of marine ecosystem indicators
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 19-01-2012
From Bacteria to Whales: Using Functional Size Spectra to Model Marine Ecosystems
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 03-2017
DOI: 10.1016/J.TREE.2016.12.003
Abstract: Size-based ecosystem modeling is emerging as a powerful way to assess ecosystem-level impacts of human- and environment-driven changes from in idual-level processes. These models have evolved as mechanistic explanations for observed regular patterns of abundance across the marine size spectrum hypothesized to hold from bacteria to whales. Fifty years since the first size spectrum measurements, we ask how far have we come? Although recent modeling studies capture an impressive range of sizes, complexity, and real-world applications, ecosystem coverage is still only partial. We describe how this can be overcome by unifying functional traits with size spectra (which we call functional size spectra) and highlight the key knowledge gaps that need to be filled to model ecosystems from bacteria to whales.
Fuel use and greenhouse gas emissions of world fisheries
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 04-2018
Linked sustainability challenges and trade-offs among fisheries, aquaculture and agriculture.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 22-08-2017
DOI: 10.1038/S41559-017-0258-8
Abstract: Fisheries and aquaculture make a crucial contribution to global food security, nutrition and livelihoods. However, the UN Sustainable Development Goals separate marine and terrestrial food production sectors and ecosystems. To sustainably meet increasing global demands for fish, the interlinkages among goals within and across fisheries, aquaculture and agriculture sectors must be recognized and addressed along with their changing nature. Here, we assess and highlight development challenges for fisheries-dependent countries based on analyses of interactions and trade-offs between goals focusing on food, bio ersity and climate change. We demonstrate that some countries are likely to face double jeopardies in both fisheries and agriculture sectors under climate change. The strategies to mitigate these risks will be context-dependent, and will need to directly address the trade-offs among Sustainable Development Goals, such as halting bio ersity loss and reducing poverty. Countries with low adaptive capacity but increasing demand for food require greater support and capacity building to transition towards reconciling trade-offs. Necessary actions are context-dependent and include effective governance, improved management and conservation, maximizing societal and environmental benefits from trade, increased equitability of distribution and innovation in food production, including continued development of low input and low impact aquaculture.
Climate-driven zooplankton shifts cause large-scale declines in food quality for fish
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 23-03-2023
DOI: 10.1038/S41558-023-01630-7
Abstract: Zooplankton are the primary energy pathway from phytoplankton to fish. Yet, there is limited understanding about how climate change will modify zooplankton communities and the implications for marine food webs globally. Using a trait-based marine ecosystem model resolving key zooplankton groups, we find that future oceans, particularly in tropical regions, favour food webs increasingly dominated by carnivorous (chaetognaths, jellyfish and carnivorous copepods) and gelatinous filter-feeding zooplankton (larvaceans and salps) at the expense of omnivorous copepods and euphausiids. By providing a direct energetic pathway from small phytoplankton to fish, the rise of gelatinous filter feeders partially offsets the increase in trophic steps between primary producers and fish from declining phytoplankton biomass and increases in carnivorous zooplankton. However, future fish communities experience reduced carrying capacity from falling phytoplankton biomass and less nutritious food as environmental conditions increasingly favour gelatinous zooplankton, slightly exacerbating projected declines in small pelagic fish biomass in tropical regions by 2100.
A cross-scale framework to support a mechanistic understanding and modelling of marine climate-driven species redistribution, from individuals to communities
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 04-08-2020
DOI: 10.1111/ECOG.04996
Body size shifts and early warning signals precede the historic collapse of whale stocks
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 22-06-2017
Abstract: Predicting population declines is a key challenge in the face of global environmental change. Abundance-based early warning signals have been shown to precede population collapses however, such signals are sensitive to the low reliability of abundance estimates. Here, using historical data on whales harvested during the 20th century, we demonstrate that early warning signals can be present not only in the abundance data, but also in the more reliable body size data of wild populations. We show that during the period of commercial whaling, the mean body size of caught whales declined dramatically (by up to 4 m over a 70-year period), leading to early warning signals being detectable up to 40 years before the global collapse of whale stocks. Combining abundance and body size data can reduce the length of the time series required to predict collapse, and decrease the chances of false positive early warning signals.
Exploring trade‐offs in mixed fisheries by integrating fleet dynamics into multispecies size‐spectrum models
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 08-12-2022
Abstract: Ecosystem‐based fisheries management aims to ensure ecologically sustainable fishing while maximising socio‐economic benefits. Achieving this goal for mixed fisheries requires better understanding of the effects of competing fishing fleets on shared resources and economic performance. Proposed management strategies that promote either specialisation or ersification of catches may result in unintended consequences for ecosystem‐based management. Here, we ask the following questions: does increased or decreased competition among fleets lead to better ecological and socio‐economic fishery outcomes? How effective are currently proposed management strategies for achieving these outcomes? We integrated fleet dynamics into a multispecies size‐spectrum model and parameterised this model to represent Australian Southern and Eastern Scalefish and Shark Mixed Fishery. We compared the fishery status quo to two extreme scenarios: no competition , where each species is fished only by one fleet (specialisation) and maximal competition , where all fleets catch all species ( ersification). To answer our second question, we considered three more plausible scenarios resulting from proposed management strategies: decreased competition due to reduced bycatch, and increased competition due to increased catches of under‐utilised or valuable species. We used indicators to explore scenarios' outcomes. Our model reproduced observed trends in fishing effort and yield. Extreme scenarios showed that a fishery dependent on single species management structures is more likely to achieve ecosystem‐based management objectives if fleets do not compete, while maximal competition can lead to socio‐economic loss as management buffers the ecological impact of ersifying. The more plausible scenarios showed little improvement over the status quo , with mixed ecological and negative economic effects. Synthesis and applications . Our model can be applied to assess mixed fisheries ecosystem‐based management strategies. Our results show that, under single species management approaches, greatest outcomes can be achieved when fleets are specialised, whereas managing fleets that catch similar species is unlikely to be successful. They question the effectiveness of these management approaches in providing resilience for mixed fisheries facing changes and highlight the need to account for fleet interactions in the evaluation of management strategies to avert unintended risks.
Interacting forces of predation and fishing affect species’ maturation size
Publisher: Authorea, Inc.
Date: 28-08-2020
Planetary boundaries for a blue planet
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 24-10-2017
DOI: 10.1038/S41559-017-0319-Z
Abstract: Concepts underpinning the planetary boundaries framework are being incorporated into multilateral discussions on sustainability, influencing international environmental policy development. Research underlying the boundaries has primarily focused on terrestrial systems, despite the fundamental role of marine biomes for Earth system function and societal wellbeing, seriously hindering the efficacy of the boundary approach. We explore boundaries from a marine perspective. For each boundary, we show how improved integration of marine systems influences our understanding of the risk of crossing these limits. Better integration of marine systems is essential if planetary boundaries are to inform Earth system governance.
Contrasting futures for Australia’s fisheries stocks under IPCC RCP8.5 emissions – A multi-ecosystem model approach
Publisher: Frontiers Media SA
Date: 30-10-2020
Assessing National Biodiversity Trends for Rocky and Coral Reefs through the Integration of Citizen Science and Scientific Monitoring Programs
Publisher: Oxford University Press (OUP)
Date: 02-2017
Improving the biological realism of predator–prey size relationships in food web models alters ecosystem dynamics
Publisher: The Royal Society
Date: 10-2023
Defining global artisanal fisheries
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 10-2019
A protocol for the intercomparison of marine fishery and ecosystem models: Fish-MIP v1.0
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 13-04-2018
Abstract: Abstract. Model intercomparison studies in the climate and Earth sciences communities have been crucial to building credibility and coherence for future projections. They have quantified variability among models, spurred model development, contrasted within- and among-model uncertainty, assessed model fits to historical data, and provided ensemble projections of future change under specified scenarios. Given the speed and magnitude of anthropogenic change in the marine environment and the consequent effects on food security, bio ersity, marine industries, and society, the time is ripe for similar comparisons among models of fisheries and marine ecosystems. Here, we describe the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project protocol version 1.0 (Fish-MIP v1.0), part of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP), which is a cross-sectoral network of climate impact modellers. Given the complexity of the marine ecosystem, this class of models has substantial heterogeneity of purpose, scope, theoretical underpinning, processes considered, parameterizations, resolution (grain size), and spatial extent. This heterogeneity reflects the lack of a unified understanding of the marine ecosystem and implies that the assemblage of all models is more likely to include a greater number of relevant processes than any single model. The current Fish-MIP protocol is designed to allow these heterogeneous models to be forced with common Earth System Model (ESM) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) outputs under prescribed scenarios for historic (from the 1950s) and future (to 2100) time periods it will be adapted to CMIP phase 6 (CMIP6) in future iterations. It also describes a standardized set of outputs for each participating Fish-MIP model to produce. This enables the broad characterization of differences between and uncertainties within models and projections when assessing climate and fisheries impacts on marine ecosystems and the services they provide. The systematic generation, collation, and comparison of results from Fish-MIP will inform an understanding of the range of plausible changes in marine ecosystems and improve our capacity to define and convey the strengths and weaknesses of model-based advice on future states of marine ecosystems and fisheries. Ultimately, Fish-MIP represents a step towards bringing together the marine ecosystem modelling community to produce consistent ensemble medium- and long-term projections of marine ecosystems.
Biodiversity redistribution under climate change: Impacts on ecosystems and human well-being.
Publisher: American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
Date: 31-03-2017
Abstract: Distributions of Earth's species are changing at accelerating rates, increasingly driven by human-mediated climate change. Such changes are already altering the composition of ecological communities, but beyond conservation of natural systems, how and why does this matter? We review evidence that climate-driven species redistribution at regional to global scales affects ecosystem functioning, human well-being, and the dynamics of climate change itself. Production of natural resources required for food security, patterns of disease transmission, and processes of carbon sequestration are all altered by changes in species distribution. Consideration of these effects of bio ersity redistribution is critical yet lacking in most mitigation and adaptation strategies, including the United Nation's Sustainable Development Goals.
Applying ensemble ecosystem model projections to future-proof marine conservation planning in the Northwest Atlantic Ocean
Publisher: Canadian Science Publishing
Date: 2023
Abstract: Climate change is altering marine ecosystems across the globe and is projected to do so for centuries to come. Marine conservation agencies can use short- and long-term projections of species-specific or ecosystem-level climate responses to inform marine conservation planning. Yet, integration of climate change adaptation, mitigation, and resilience into marine conservation planning is limited. We analysed future trajectories of climate change impacts on total consumer biomass and six key physical and biogeochemical drivers across the Northwest Atlantic Ocean to evaluate the consequences for Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) and Other Effective area-based Conservation Measures (OECMs) in Atlantic Canada. We identified climate change hotspots and refugia, where the environmental drivers are projected to change most or remain close to their current state, respectively, by mid- and end-century. We used standardized outputs from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project and the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Our analysis revealed that, currently, no existing marine conservation areas in Atlantic Canada overlap with identified climate refugia. Most (75%) established MPAs and more than one-third (39%) of the established OECMs lie within cumulative climate hotspots. Our results provide important long-term context for adaptation and future-proofing spatial marine conservation planning in Canada and the Northwest Atlantic region.
Zooplankton Are Not Fish: Improving Zooplankton Realism in Size-Spectrum Models Mediates Energy Transfer in Food Webs
Publisher: Frontiers Media SA
Date: 19-10-2016
Reply to: The environmental footprint of fisheries
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 25-09-2023
Early warning signals of recovery in complex systems
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 11-04-2019
DOI: 10.1038/S41467-019-09684-Y
Abstract: Early warning signals (EWSs) offer the hope that patterns observed in data can predict the future states of ecological systems. While a large body of research identifies such signals prior to the collapse of populations, the prediction that such signals should also be present before a system’s recovery has thus far been overlooked. We assess whether EWSs are present prior to the recovery of overexploited marine systems using a trait-based ecological model and analysis of real-world fisheries data. We show that both abundance and trait-based signals are independently detectable prior to the recovery of stocks, but that combining these two signals provides the best predictions of recovery. This work suggests that the efficacy of conservation interventions aimed at restoring systems which have collapsed may be predicted prior to the recovery of the system, with direct relevance for conservation planning and policy.
Functional traits explain trophic allometries of cephalopods
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 28-09-2020
Planktonic functional diversity changes in synchrony with lake ecosystem state
Publisher: Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory
Date: 09-06-2022
DOI: 10.1101/2022.06.07.495076
Abstract: Managing ecosystems to effectively preserve function and services requires reliable tools that can infer changes in the stability and dynamics of a system. Conceptually, functional ersity (FD) appears a viable monitoring metric due to its mechanistic influence on ecological processes, but it is unclear whether changes in FD occur prior to state responses or vice versa. We examine the lagged relationship between planktonic FD and abundance-based metrics of system state (e.g. biomass) across five highly monitored lake communities using both correlation and non-linear causality approaches. Overall, phytoplankton and zooplankton FD display synchrony with lake state but each lake is idiosyncratic in the strength of relationship. It is therefore unlikely that changes in plankton FD are identifiable before changes in more easily collected abundance metrics. This suggests that FD is unlikely to be a viable early indicator, but has value as an alternative state measure if considered at the lake level. Lake Kinneret and Lake Kasumigaura data are available on request, with all other data publicly available and referenced throughout. All code for analysis is available in the Zenodo record (to be released) and the associated GitHub repository ( uncanobrien lankton-FD ).
Global ensemble projections reveal trophic amplification of ocean biomass declines with climate change
Publisher: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Date: 11-06-2019
Abstract: While the physical dimensions of climate change are now routinely assessed through multimodel intercomparisons, projected impacts on the global ocean ecosystem generally rely on in idual models with a specific set of assumptions. To address these single-model limitations, we present standardized ensemble projections from six global marine ecosystem models forced with two Earth system models and four emission scenarios with and without fishing. We derive average biomass trends and associated uncertainties across the marine food web. Without fishing, mean global animal biomass decreased by 5% (±4% SD) under low emissions and 17% (±11% SD) under high emissions by 2100, with an average 5% decline for every 1 °C of warming. Projected biomass declines were primarily driven by increasing temperature and decreasing primary production, and were more pronounced at higher trophic levels, a process known as trophic lification. Fishing did not substantially alter the effects of climate change. Considerable regional variation featured strong biomass increases at high latitudes and decreases at middle to low latitudes, with good model agreement on the direction of change but variable magnitude. Uncertainties due to variations in marine ecosystem and Earth system models were similar. Ensemble projections performed well compared with empirical data, emphasizing the benefits of multimodel inference to project future outcomes. Our results indicate that global ocean animal biomass consistently declines with climate change, and that these impacts are lified at higher trophic levels. Next steps for model development include dynamic scenarios of fishing, cumulative human impacts, and the effects of management measures on future ocean biomass trends.
Integrating Life Cycle and Impact Assessments to Map Food's Cumulative Environmental Footprint
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 07-2020
Reply to 'Whaling catch data are not reliable for analyses of body size shifts'
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 16-04-2018
Improving understanding of fisheries functional diversity by exploring the influence of global catch reconstruction
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 06-09-2017
DOI: 10.1038/S41598-017-10723-1
Abstract: Functional ersity is thought to enhance ecosystem resilience, driving research focused on trends in the functional composition of fisheries, most recently with new reconstructions of global catch data. However, there is currently little understanding of how accounting for unreported catches (e.g. small-scale and illegal fisheries, bycatch and discards) influences functional ersity trends in global fisheries. We explored how ersity estimates varied among reported and unreported components of catch in 2010, and found these components had distinct functional fingerprints. Incorporating unreported catches had little impact on global-scale functional ersity patterns. However, at smaller, management-relevant scales, the effects of incorporating unreported catches were large (changes in functional ersity of up to 46%). Our results suggest there is greater uncertainty about the risks to ecosystem integrity and resilience from current fishing patterns than previously recognized. We provide recommendations and suggest a research agenda to improve future assessments of functional ersity of global fisheries.
A bioenergetic framework for the temperature dependence of trophic interactions
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 03-06-2014
DOI: 10.1111/ELE.12307
Abstract: Changing temperature can substantially shift ecological communities by altering the strength and stability of trophic interactions. Because many ecological rates are constrained by temperature, new approaches are required to understand how simultaneous changes in multiple rates alter the relative performance of species and their trophic interactions. We develop an energetic approach to identify the relationship between biomass fluxes and standing biomass across trophic levels. Our approach links ecological rates and trophic dynamics to measure temperature-dependent changes to the strength of trophic interactions and determine how these changes alter food web stability. It accomplishes this by using biomass as a common energetic currency and isolating three temperature-dependent processes that are common to all consumer-resource interactions: biomass accumulation of the resource, resource consumption and consumer mortality. Using this framework, we clarify when and how temperature alters consumer to resource biomass ratios, equilibrium resilience, consumer variability, extinction risk and transient vs. equilibrium dynamics. Finally, we characterise key asymmetries in species responses to temperature that produce these distinct dynamic behaviours and identify when they are likely to emerge. Overall, our framework provides a mechanistic and more unified understanding of the temperature dependence of trophic dynamics in terms of ecological rates, biomass ratios and stability.
Ecosystem-based fisheries management requires broader performance indicators for the human dimension
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 10-2019
Energy Flow Through Marine Ecosystems: Confronting Transfer Efficiency
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 2021
Reef communities show predictable undulations in linear abundance size spectra from copepods to sharks
Publisher: Authorea, Inc.
Date: 10-03-2021
DOI: 10.22541/AU.161536960.08128108/V1
Abstract: Amongst the more widely accepted general hypotheses in ecology is that community relationships between abundance and body size follow a log-linear size spectrum, from the smallest consumers to the largest predators (i.e., “bacteria to whales”). Nevertheless, most studies only investigate small subsets of this spectrum, due to extreme size classes that deviate from these linear expectations. In this study, we fit size spectra to field data from 45 rocky and coral reef sites along a 28° latitudinal gradient, and spanning 11 orders of magnitude in body size, from 3 μg to 150 kg. We found that 97% of the variation in abundance along this ‘extended’ size gradient was described by a single linear function across all sites. Moreover, consistent ‘wobbles’ were also observed, with subtle peaks and troughs in abundance along the spectrum, that related strongly to sea temperature and local site conditions.
The environmental footprint of global food production
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 24-10-2022
Considering land–sea interactions and trade‐offs for food and biodiversity
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 21-09-2018
DOI: 10.1111/GCB.13873
Abstract: With the human population expected to near 10 billion by 2050, and diets shifting towards greater per-capita consumption of animal protein, meeting future food demands will place ever-growing burdens on natural resources and those dependent on them. Solutions proposed to increase the sustainability of agriculture, aquaculture, and capture fisheries have typically approached development from single sector perspectives. Recent work highlights the importance of recognising links among food sectors, and the challenge cross-sector dependencies create for sustainable food production. Yet without understanding the full suite of interactions between food systems on land and sea, development in one sector may result in unanticipated trade-offs in another. We review the interactions between terrestrial and aquatic food systems. We show that most of the studied land-sea interactions fall into at least one of four categories: ecosystem connectivity, feed interdependencies, livelihood interactions, and climate feedback. Critically, these interactions modify nutrient flows, and the partitioning of natural resource use between land and sea, amid a backdrop of climate variability and change that reaches across all sectors. Addressing counter-productive trade-offs resulting from land-sea links will require simultaneous improvements in food production and consumption efficiency, while creating more sustainable feed products for fish and livestock. Food security research and policy also needs to better integrate aquatic and terrestrial production to anticipate how cross-sector interactions could transmit change across ecosystem and governance boundaries into the future.
Vulnerability of Coral Reef Fisheries to a Loss of Structural Complexity
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 05-2014
DOI: 10.1016/J.CUB.2014.03.026
Abstract: Coral reefs face a erse array of threats, from eutrophication and overfishing to climate change. As live corals are lost and their skeletons eroded, the structural complexity of reefs declines. This may have important consequences for the survival and growth of reef fish because complex habitats mediate predator-prey interactions [1, 2] and influence competition [3-5] through the provision of prey refugia. A positive correlation exists between structural complexity and reef fish abundance and ersity in both temperate and tropical ecosystems [6-10]. However, it is not clear how the ersity of available refugia interacts with in idual predator-prey relationships to explain emergent properties at the community scale. Furthermore, we do not yet have the ability to predict how habitat loss might affect the productivity of whole reef communities and the fisheries they support. Using data from an unfished reserve in The Bahamas, we find that structural complexity is associated not only with increased fish biomass and abundance, but also with nonlinearities in the size spectra of fish, implying disproportionately high abundances of certain size classes. By developing a size spectrum food web model that links the vulnerability of prey to predation with the structural complexity of a reef, we show that these nonlinearities can be explained by size-structured prey refugia that reduce mortality rates and alter growth rates in different parts of the size spectrum. Fitting the model with data from a structurally complex habitat, we predict that a loss of complexity could cause more than a 3-fold reduction in fishery productivity.
Making Robust Policy Decisions Using Global Biodiversity Indicators
Publisher: Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Date: 18-07-2012
Evolution of global marine fishing fleets and the response of fished resources
Publisher: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Date: 28-05-2019
Abstract: We independently reconstructed vessels number, engine power, and effort of the global marine fishing fleet, in both the artisanal and industrial sectors. Although global fishing capacity and effort have more than doubled since 1950 in all but the most industrialized regions, the nominal catch per unit of effort (CPUE) has comparatively decreased. Between 1950 and 2015 the effective CPUE, among the most widely used indicator to assess fisheries management and stocks well being, has decreased by over 80% for most countries. This paper highlights the large differences in the development of sectorial fishing fleets regionally. This detailed paper empowers future exploration of the drivers of these changes, critical to develop sector and regionally specific management models targeting global fisheries sustainability.
Fisheries productivity under progressive coral reef degradation
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 18-12-2017
Alternative energy pathways in Southern Ocean food webs: Insights from a balanced model of Prydz Bay, Antarctica
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 04-2019
Interacting forces of predation and fishing affect species’ maturation size
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 12-2020
DOI: 10.1002/ECE3.6995
Abstract: Fishing is a strong selective force and is supposed to select for earlier maturation at smaller body size. However, the extent to which fishing‐induced evolution is shaping ecosystems remains debated. This is in part because it is challenging to disentangle fishing from other selective forces (e.g., size‐structured predation and cannibalism) in complex ecosystems undergoing rapid change. Changes in maturation size from fishing and predation have previously been explored with multi‐species physiologically structured models but assumed separation of ecological and evolutionary timescales. To assess the eco‐evolutionary impact of fishing and predation at the same timescale, we developed a stochastic physiologically size‐structured food‐web model, where new phenotypes are introduced randomly through time enabling dynamic simulation of species' relative maturation sizes under different types of selection pressures. Using the model, we carried out a fully factorial in silico experiment to assess how maturation size would change in the absence and presence of both fishing and predation (including cannibalism). We carried out ten replicate stochastic simulations exposed to all combinations of fishing and predation in a model community of nine interacting fish species ranging in their maximum sizes from 10 g to 100 kg. We visualized and statistically analyzed the results using linear models. The effects of fishing on maturation size depended on whether or not predation was enabled and differed substantially across species. Fishing consistently reduced the maturation sizes of two largest species whether or not predation was enabled and this decrease was seen even at low fishing intensities ( F = 0.2 per year). In contrast, the maturation sizes of the three smallest species evolved to become smaller through time but this happened regardless of the levels of predation or fishing. For the four medium‐size species, the effect of fishing was highly variable with more species showing significant and larger fishing effects in the presence of predation. Ultimately our results suggest that the interactive effects of predation and fishing can have marked effects on species' maturation sizes, but that, at least for the largest species, predation does not counterbalance the evolutionary effect of fishing. Our model also produced relative maturation sizes that are broadly consistent with empirical estimates for many fish species.
Related Organisations
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