ORCID Profile
0000-0002-6375-0699
Current Organisation
University of Tasmania
Does something not look right? The information on this page has been harvested from data sources that may not be up to date. We continue to work with information providers to improve coverage and quality. To report an issue, use the Feedback Form.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 29-09-2019
DOI: 10.1002/WEA.3384
Abstract: An extreme extratropical cyclone (ETC) struck South Australia on 28 September 2016, causing state‐wide blackouts and damage. In the second part of this two‐part study, we examine the extreme surface wind producing mechanisms within the ETC. ETCs have been extensively studied in the Northern Hemisphere (particularly in western Europe), highlighting the gust‐producing mesoscale features within. Before now, no Southern Hemisphere ETC has been examined in this way. There were a number of extreme gust‐producing features within the ETC, comparable to those observed in storms over western Europe. One such feature was a convective line, which caused many of the most extreme gusts and knocked out the state power grid. However, dry slot convection also contributed to the extremes, and this feature rarely causes extreme gusts in ETCs over the UK. Thus, further analysis is warranted to examine whether this is a common extreme‐gust‐producing ETC feature over Southern Australia. The strongest winds recorded throughout the event occurred on 29 September, and these were associated with the cold conveyor belt which spiralled around the low‐pressure centre.
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 28-04-2017
DOI: 10.1002/2017GL073124
Abstract: Numerous studies have addressed the mesoscale features within extratropical cyclones (ETCs) that are responsible for the most destructive winds, though few have utilized surface observation data, and most are based on case studies. By using a 39‐station UK surface observation network, coupled with in‐depth analysis of the causes of extreme gusts during the period 2008–2014, we show that larger‐scale features (warm and cold conveyer belts) are most commonly associated with the top 1% of UK gusts but smaller‐scale features generate the most extreme winds. The cold conveyor belt is far more destructive when joining the momentum of the ETC, rather than earlier in its trajectory, ahead of the approaching warm front. Sting jets and convective lines account for two thirds of severe surface gusts in the UK.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 11-2018
DOI: 10.1002/WEA.3385
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 18-07-2022
DOI: 10.1002/JOC.7791
Abstract: While extreme weather and climate events have been studied for several decades, analysis of compound events has only begun in recent years. In this burgeoning field there are still many open questions around the optimal methodology and analysis tools for analysis. After consultation with state emergency services in Tasmania, Australia, we examined which compound events have the largest impacts on their organizations. Through this consultation process we found that many of the severe flooding events in the state do not coincide with the highest rainfall days. Flooding on intense rainfall days is well understood, but flooding can also occur on days where the rainfall is not particularly extreme, especially if catchments are already saturated. Using the Australian Gridded Climate Data and six dynamically downscaled, Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5, bias adjusted Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 models we developed a method to quantify such compounding events to examine how they are changing from 1961 to 2100. We optimized a pre‐existing technique to estimate the antecedent conditions in catchments, combined with daily rainfall. We found that during 1961–2017, the number of compound rainfall events has been decreasing in the four Tasmanian catchments we studied, although the trend was statistically significant in only one case. The intensity of compound rainfall events was found to have increased significantly in some areas. Many future projections place Tasmania at the boundary of a drying trend to the west and wetting trend to the east and the position of this boundary varies between models leading to contrasting projected changes for parts of Tasmania. However, there is projected to be a decline in rainfall to 2100 associated with the southward shift in the storm‐track. Compound rainfall events are projected to decline throughout Tasmania, except in the south which will remain stable to 2100. The intensities are projected to increase in the south and decrease in the west, related to the changing thermodynamics and dynamics of rainfall drivers in the region in a warmer climate.
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 27-07-2017
DOI: 10.1002/2016JD026312
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 06-03-2018
DOI: 10.1002/2017JD027749
Location: United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland
No related grants have been discovered for Nick Earl.