ORCID Profile
0000-0003-4936-5126
Current Organisation
Deakin University
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Publisher: Informa UK Limited
Date: 30-05-2019
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 10-2021
Abstract: We simulate the economic impacts of the COVID‐19 pandemic on the Australian economy using VURM, a detailed computable general equilibrium model for Australia. We identify five sources of economic perturbations: changes to productivity due to changing work practices, changes in household demand imposed by voluntary and mandated social distancing behaviour, changes in international trade due to a weakened world economy and severe curtailment of international travel, reduced population growth due to lower net migration and large debt‐financed fiscal stimulus. Variants of these shocks and associated recovery paths are simulated in VURM, with three scenarios describing potential recovery arcs. The macroeconomic and industry impacts are reported for each scenario. Ultimately, our focus is on the impact on output and employment in the agriculture and mining sectors, and on their likely recovery prospects. At the peak of economic impacts, output in these sectors declines by about 6 per cent relative to a no‐COVID baseline. Compared to the economy‐wide average, the decline in agriculture and mining output is small. This can be explained by relatively minor impacts on work practices, relatively low negative impacts on demand for intensive agriculture (helped by fiscal supports for households) and relatively low disruption to export demand.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 05-2017
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 06-04-2021
DOI: 10.1111/JORS.12526
Abstract: This paper estimates the effects of airport infrastructure on employment and the distribution of the labor force in US metropolitan areas. The analysis is based on models for the air network and for its effects on employment, which are estimated using US data. Air traffic is found to have a positive effect on the population of the local area, with an elasticity of 0.010, so airport improvements induce a reallocation of workers between regions. Air traffic is also found to have a positive effect on employment in the local area with an elasticity of 0.036 and a weakly positive effect on the employment rate in other places within 400 miles. Simulations suggest that for each job created in the local area by an airport expansion, two and a half jobs are created elsewhere in the United States due to the changes in the air network and the distribution of employment. Expanding the average airport adds one job in the United States for roughly each $78,000 invested. The results further suggest that the US air network is less centralized than would be optimal.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 14-01-2012
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 08-04-2014
DOI: 10.1111/ROIE.12132
Publisher: Informa UK Limited
Date: 13-07-2023
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 03-2014
No related grants have been discovered for Nicholas Sheard.