ORCID Profile
0000-0002-0186-4412
Current Organisation
University of Tasmania
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Publisher: Informa UK Limited
Date: 03-02-2014
Publisher: Cambridge University Press (CUP)
Date: 06-02-2018
DOI: 10.1017/S1365100517001092
Abstract: Economists typically use seasonally adjusted data in which the assumption is imposed that seasonality is uncorrelated with trend and cycle. The importance of this assumption has been highlighted by the Great Recession. The paper examines an unobserved components model that permits nonzero correlations between seasonal and nonseasonal shocks. Identification conditions for estimation of the parameters are discussed from the perspectives of both analytical and simulation results. Applications to UK household consumption expenditures and US employment reject the zero correlation restrictions and also show that the correlation assumptions imposed have important implications about the evolution of the trend and cycle in the post-Great Recession period.
Publisher: International Association for Energy Economics (IAEE)
Date: 07-2023
Publisher: Informa UK Limited
Date: 20-02-2017
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 26-07-2021
Abstract: Understanding forecast revisions is critical for weather forecast users to determine the optimal timing for their planning decisions. A set of multi‐horizon forecasts for wind speed produced by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology for 12 weather stations in eastern Australia are examined. The forecasts are examined in terms of the econometric definition of rationality and, as a robustness check, the economic value of the forecasts is also assessed using a cost–loss model. It is demonstrated that while the forecasts exhibit some of the characteristics of rational forecasts, when official testing is introduced forecast rationality is rejected at all the weather stations considered. Furthermore, the behaviour of the forecasts is shown to be very erratic over the course of the day and over forecast horizons. Although there is some evidence that the official forecasts can provide positive economic value, this metric also indicates that there is substantial room for improvement.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 18-10-2018
DOI: 10.1111/ACFI.12240
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 06-2022
DOI: 10.1002/FOR.2871
Abstract: Economic forecasts, such as the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF), are revised multiple times before realization of the target. This paper studies the sources of forecast revisions. By decomposing the fixed‐event forecast error into a rational component due to unanticipated future shocks and an irrational component due to measurement error in acquired information or forecasters' reactions, we derive the conditions under which fixed‐event forecasts that contain an irrational forecast error can still possess the second moment properties of rational forecasts. We show that internal consistency of fixed‐event forecasts depends on the magnitude of the rational and irrational components in the revisions. As such, fixed‐event forecasts subject to irrational error may still be internally consistent, although they are not rational, as evidence in many empirical studies. We illustrate our methodology with the SPF inflation forecasts data. Our results show evidence of a sizeable and heterogeneous irrational forecast error component across forecast horizons and a high irrational‐to‐news ratio for most forecasters. This finding also provides insight into why forecast revision effort is not always fully compensated by revision reward.
Publisher: Queensland University of Technology
Date: 14-11-2022
DOI: 10.5204/LTHJ.2639
Abstract: The future is in flux. There are many vectors of change, and none seem positive. Dark dystopian futures of war, climate catastrophe, polarising inequalities and digital disruption seem to be looming. This narrating of the future suggests the significance of science fiction. Science fiction acts as a storehouse for the imagining of the future. It also offers new approaches to justice and law. This symposium on ‘Jurisprudence of the Future’ contains contributions that bring together science fiction, justice and law. There is a sense of urgency to the contributions, to understand the science fictionality of the present and imagining alternative futures.
Publisher: Cambridge University Press (CUP)
Date: 13-06-2014
DOI: 10.1017/S1365100513000606
Abstract: A well-documented property of the Beveridge–Nelson trend–cycle decomposition is the perfect negative correlation between trend and cycle innovations. We show how this may be consistent with a structural model where permanent innovations enter the cycle or transitory innovations enter the trend, and that identification restrictions are necessary to make this structural distinction. A reduced-form unrestricted version is compatible with either option, but cannot distinguish which is relevant. We discuss economic interpretations and implications using U.S. real GDP data.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 2014
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 03-2022
Publisher: Informa UK Limited
Date: 03-2013
No related grants have been discovered for Jing Tian.