ORCID Profile
0000-0003-3814-693X
Current Organisations
Nova Scotia Health Authority
,
Murdoch University
,
Dalhousie University
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Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 14-09-2019
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 03-2023
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 10-2021
Publisher: IOP Publishing
Date: 12-2016
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 10-2017
DOI: 10.1002/2017EF000606
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 09-2017
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 16-05-2023
DOI: 10.5194/ESSD-15-2009-2023
Abstract: Abstract. As the adverse impacts of hydrological extremes increase in many regions of the world, a better understanding of the drivers of changes in risk and impacts is essential for effective flood and drought risk management and climate adaptation. However, there is currently a lack of comprehensive, empirical data about the processes, interactions, and feedbacks in complex human–water systems leading to flood and drought impacts. Here we present a benchmark dataset containing socio-hydrological data of paired events, i.e. two floods or two droughts that occurred in the same area. The 45 paired events occurred in 42 different study areas and cover a wide range of socio-economic and hydro-climatic conditions. The dataset is unique in covering both floods and droughts, in the number of cases assessed and in the quantity of socio-hydrological data. The benchmark dataset comprises (1) detailed review-style reports about the events and key processes between the two events of a pair (2) the key data table containing variables that assess the indicators which characterize management shortcomings, hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and impacts of all events and (3) a table of the indicators of change that indicate the differences between the first and second event of a pair. The advantages of the dataset are that it enables comparative analyses across all the paired events based on the indicators of change and allows for detailed context- and location-specific assessments based on the extensive data and reports of the in idual study areas. The dataset can be used by the scientific community for exploratory data analyses, e.g. focused on causal links between risk management changes in hazard, exposure and vulnerability and flood or drought impacts. The data can also be used for the development, calibration, and validation of socio-hydrological models. The dataset is available to the public through the GFZ Data Services (Kreibich et al., 2023, 0.5880/GFZ.4.4.2023.001).
Publisher: IOP Publishing
Date: 06-2022
Abstract: The Ganges-Brahmaputra (GB) delta is one of the most disaster-prone areas in the world due to a combination of high population density and exposure to tropical cyclones, floods, salinity intrusion and other hazards. Due to the complexity of natural deltaic processes and human influence on these processes, structural solutions like embankments are inadequate on their own for effective hazard mitigation. This article examines nature-based solutions (NbSs) as a complementary or alternative approach to managing hazards in the GB delta. We investigate the potential of NbS as a complementary and sustainable method for mitigating the impacts of coastal disaster risks, mainly cyclones and flooding. Using the emerging framework of NbS principles, we evaluate three existing approaches: tidal river management, mangrove afforestation, and oyster reef cultivation, all of which are actively being used to help reduce the impacts of coastal hazards. We also identify major challenges (socioeconomic, biophysical, governance and policy) that need to be overcome to allow broader application of the existing approaches by incorporating the NbS principles. In addition to addressing GB delta-specific challenges, our findings provide more widely applicable insights into the challenges of implementing NbS in deltaic environments globally.
Publisher: MDPI AG
Date: 30-06-2015
DOI: 10.3390/SU7078437
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 2015
Publisher: IOP Publishing
Date: 31-05-2019
Abstract: This study diagnoses temporal and spatial variations in the performance of different social-ecological systems (SES) in coastal floodplain management in the Ganges-Brahmaputra delta. We go beyond common pool resource management problems and address the management of local public goods. In the assessment, we consider recent developments in the framework initially developed by Elinor Ostrom. The main variables of the framework that we use are resource systems, the environment, the governance system and actors. The focal SES is defined based on guiding questions relating to the definition of the key problem, system boundaries, and action situations. According to our results, the performance of resource systems and the environment deteriorated in 1960–79 compared to the performance prior to 1960. The condition reached a low point during 1980–1999 but improved slightly after 1999. The horizontal network structure of local governance was active until 1960. Due to the introduction of the ‘tidal river management’ approach in the 90 s, the performance of the resource system and the environment has slightly improved, as has the involvement of government and non-government organizations. Our results also show that overall SES performance is comparatively better in the case of locally managed floodplains than it is for those managed by government agencies. Our new approaches, such as the recent development of the diagnostic framework, the guiding questions for defining focal SES, and application of the framework to local public goods can potentially be used in the fields of sustainability science and SES science. The qualitative performance of each of the selected indicators is useful for identifying intervention options to achieve a sustainable outcome for the coastal floodplain SES.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 11-2019
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 03-2020
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 13-06-2016
Publisher: PAGEPress Publications
Date: 09-09-2013
DOI: 10.4081/IJA.2013.E23
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 04-08-2017
Publisher: MDPI AG
Date: 25-12-2015
DOI: 10.3390/W8010006
Publisher: BMJ
Date: 02-2020
DOI: 10.1136/BMJOPEN-2019-035656
Abstract: Polypharmacy and potentially inappropriate medication use is common in older adults and is associated with adverse outcomes such as falls and hospitalisations. This study is a pharmacist-led medication optimisation initiative using an electronic tool (the Drug Burden Index (DBI) Calculator) in four hospital sites in the Canadian province of Nova Scotia. The study aims to enrol 160 participants between the preintervention and intervention groups. The Standard Protocol Items: Recommendations for Interventional Trials (SPIRIT 2013 checklist) was used to develop the protocol for this prospective interventional implementation study. A preintervention retrospective control cohort and a multiple case study analysis will also be used to assess the effect of intervention implementation. Statistical analysis will involve change in DBI scores and assessment of clinical outcomes, such as rehospitalisation and mortality using appropriate statistical tests including t-test, χ 2 , analysis of variance and unadjusted and adjusted regression methods. Ethics approval has been granted by the Nova Scotia Health Authority Research Ethics Board. The findings of this study will be published in peer-reviewed journals and presented at local, national and international conferences. NCT03698487 .
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 07-02-2017
Abstract: Abstract. Two daily gravity field solutions based on observations from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission are evaluated against daily river runoff data for major flood events in the Ganges-Brahmaputra Delta (GBD) in 2004 and 2007. The trends over periods of a few days of the daily GRACE data reflect temporal variations in daily river runoff during major flood events. This is especially true for the larger flood in 2007, which featured two distinct periods of critical flood level exceedance in the Brahmaputra River. This first hydrological evaluation of daily GRACE gravity field solutions based on a Kalman filter approach confirms their potential for gravity-based large-scale flood monitoring. This particularly applies to short-lived, high-volume floods, as they occur in the GBD with a 4–5 year return period. The release of daily GRACE gravity field solutions in near real-time may enable flood monitoring for large events.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 09-05-2023
Publisher: Frontiers Media SA
Date: 22-11-2018
Publisher: Elsevier
Date: 2015
Publisher: Informa UK Limited
Date: 08-06-2022
Publisher: Oxford University Press (OUP)
Date: 28-02-2023
Abstract: Although delirium is a significant clinical and public health problem, little is understood about how specific vulnerabilities underlie the severity of its presentation. Our objective was to quantify the relationship between baseline cognition and subsequent delirium severity. We prospectively investigated a population-representative s le of 1510 in iduals aged ≥70 years, of whom 209 (13.6%) were hospitalized across 371 episodes (1999 person-days assessment). Baseline cognitive function was assessed using the modified Telephone Interview for Cognitive Status, supplemented by verbal fluency measures. We estimated the relationship between baseline cognition and delirium severity [Memorial Delirium Assessment Scale (MDAS)] and abnormal arousal (Observational Scale of Level of Arousal), adjusted by age, sex, frailty and illness severity. We conducted further analyses examining presentations to specific hospital settings and common precipitating aetiologies. The median time from baseline cognitive assessment to admission was 289 days (interquartile range 130 to 47 days). In admitted patients, delirium was present on at least 1 day in 45% of admission episodes. The average number of days with delirium (consecutively positive assessments) was 3.9 days. Elective admissions accounted for 88 bed days (4.4%). In emergency (but not elective) admissions, we found a non-linear U-shaped relationship between baseline global cognition and delirium severity using restricted cubic splines. Participants with baseline cognition 2 standard deviations below average (z-score = −2) had a mean MDAS score of 14 points (95% CI 10 to 19). Similarly, those with baseline cognition z-score = + 2 had a mean MDAS score of 7.9 points (95% CI 4.9 to 11). In iduals with average baseline cognition had the lowest MDAS scores. The association between baseline cognition and abnormal arousal followed a comparable pattern. C-reactive protein ≥20 mg/l and serum sodium & mM/l were associated with more severe delirium. Baseline cognition is a critical determinant of the severity of delirium and associated changes in arousal. Emergency admissions with lowest and highest baseline cognition who develop delirium should receive enhanced clinical attention.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 04-11-2012
DOI: 10.1111/JFR3.12003
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 24-03-2022
DOI: 10.5194/NHESS-22-985-2022
Abstract: Abstract. To mark the 20th anniversary of Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS), an interdisciplinary and international journal dedicated to the public discussion and open-access publication of high-quality studies and original research on natural hazards and their consequences, we highlight 11 key publications covering major subject areas of NHESS that stood out within the past 20 years. The papers cover all the topics contemplated in the European Geosciences Union (EGU) Division on Natural Hazards including dissemination, education, outreach and teaching. The selected articles thus represent excellent scientific contributions in the major areas of natural hazards and risks and helped NHESS to become an exceptionally strong journal representing interdisciplinary areas of natural hazards and risks. At its 20th anniversary, we are proud that NHESS is not only used by scientists to disseminate research results and novel ideas but also by practitioners and decision-makers to present effective solutions and strategies for sustainable disaster risk reduction.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 28-01-2014
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 07-06-2013
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 09-05-2018
DOI: 10.5194/HESS-22-2867-2018
Abstract: Abstract. Two daily gravity field solutions based on observations from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission are evaluated against daily river runoff data for major flood events in the Ganges–Brahmaputra Delta (GBD) in 2004 and 2007. The trends over periods of a few days of the daily GRACE data reflect temporal variations in daily river runoff during major flood events. This is especially true for the larger flood in 2007, which featured two distinct periods of critical flood level exceedance in the Brahmaputra River. This first hydrological evaluation of daily GRACE gravity field solutions based on a Kalman filter approach confirms their potential for gravity-based large-scale flood monitoring. This particularly applies to short-lived, high-volume floods, as they occur in the GBD with a 4–5-year return period. The release of daily GRACE gravity field solutions in near-real time may enable flood monitoring for large events.
Publisher: MDPI AG
Date: 15-08-2014
DOI: 10.3390/W6082501
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 21-06-2017
Publisher: MDPI AG
Date: 17-01-2017
DOI: 10.3390/W9010055
Publisher: Informa UK Limited
Date: 14-09-2015
Publisher: Cambridge University Press (CUP)
Date: 15-02-2021
DOI: 10.1017/S1041610220003932
Abstract: To examine the relative contributions of frailty and neuropathology to dementia expression in a population-based cohort study. Cross-sectional analysis of observational data. Population-representative clinicopathological cohort study. Adults aged 75+ recruited from general practice registries in Cambridge, UK, in 1985. A 39-item frailty index and 15-item neuropathological index were used to operationalize frailty and neuropathology, respectively. Dementia status was ascertained by clinical consensus at time of death. Relationships were evaluated using logistic regression models in participants with autopsy records ( n = 183). Model fit was assessed using change in deviance. Population attributable fraction for frailty was evaluated in relation to dementia incidence in a representative s le of the survey participants ( n = 542). Participants with autopsy were 92.3 ± 4.6 years at time of death, and mostly women (70%). Average frailty index value at last survey before death was 0.34 ± 0.16. People with dementia (63% of the s le) were frailer, had lower MMSE scores, and a higher burden of neuropathology. Frailty and neuropathological burden were significantly and independently associated with dementia status, without interaction frailty explained an additional 3% of the variance in the model. Assuming a causal relationship and based on population-attributable fraction analyses, preventing severe frailty (Frailty Index ≥ 0.40) could have avoided 14.2% of dementia cases in this population-based cohort. In the very old, frailty contributes to the risk for dementia beyond its relationship with the burden of traditional dementia neuropathologies. Reducing frailty could have important implications for controlling the burden of dementia. Future research on frailty interventions should include dementia risk as a key outcome, public health interventions and policy decisions should consider frailty as a key risk factor for dementia, and biomedical research should focus on elucidating shared mechanisms of frailty and dementia development.
Publisher: Informa UK Limited
Date: 21-07-2017
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 10-11-2021
Abstract: Abstract. To mark the twentieth anniversary of Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS), an interdisciplinary and international journal dedicated to the public discussion and open-access publication of high-quality studies and original research on natural hazards and their consequences, we highlight eleven key publications covering major subject areas of NHESS that stood out within the past 20 years. The selected articles represent excellent scientific contributions in the major areas of natural hazards and risks and helped NHESS to become an exceptionally strong journal representing interdisciplinary areas of natural hazards and risks. At its 20th anniversary, we are proud that NHESS is not only used by scientists to disseminate research results and innovative novel ideas but also by practitioners and decision-makers to present effective solutions and strategies for sustainable disaster risk reduction.
Publisher: Informa UK Limited
Date: 02-05-2014
Publisher: Wageningen University and Research
Date: 31-01-2022
DOI: 10.18174/SESMO.18161
Abstract: Analysis of climate change risks in support of policymakers to set effective adaptation policies requires an innovative yet rigorous approach towards integrated modelling (IM) of social-ecological systems (SES). Despite continuous advances, IM still faces various challenges that span through both unresolved methodological issues as well as data requirements. On the methodological side, significant improvements have been made for better understanding the dynamics of complex social and ecological systems, but still, the literature and proposed solutions are fragmented. This paper explores available modelling approaches suitable for long-term analysis of SES for supporting climate change adaptation (CCA). It proposes their classification into seven groups, identifies their main strengths and limitations, and lists current data sources of greatest interest. Upon that synthesis, the paper identifies directions for orienting the development of innovative IM, for improved analysis and management of socio-economic systems, thus providing better foundations for effective CCA.
Publisher: IWA Publishing
Date: 26-04-2012
DOI: 10.2166/WP.2012.143
Abstract: Water governance is a complex regulatory process which continuously changes over time. In this study, we apply a novel approach to investigate trends in water governance regimes, using Bangladesh as an ex le. Among the erse notions of governance, we consider seven indicators representing legal, political and administrative aspects. Changes are analysed by considering both shifts indicated by policy documents and the quality of governance perceived by water user groups. To get an overall picture, we aggregate all seven indicators based on the weightings provided by experts and water user groups. Our results show that, according to the policy documents, all notions of governance have significantly improved and will further improve. However, according to water user groups, the actual implementation of these policies seems to be far behind what the policy documents indicate and, moreover, this gap has even been increasing over time. Although only seven indicators might not do sufficient justice to the complexity of an issue such as governance, these results convey an understanding of observed and perceived tendencies in arenas of water management, making this approach a relevant contribution to a better informed decision-making.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 17-08-2020
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 25-07-2015
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 03-08-2022
DOI: 10.1038/S41586-022-04917-5
Abstract: Risk management has reduced vulnerability to floods and droughts globally 1,2 , yet their impacts are still increasing 3 . An improved understanding of the causes of changing impacts is therefore needed, but has been h ered by a lack of empirical data 4,5 . On the basis of a global dataset of 45 pairs of events that occurred within the same area, we show that risk management generally reduces the impacts of floods and droughts but faces difficulties in reducing the impacts of unprecedented events of a magnitude not previously experienced. If the second event was much more hazardous than the first, its impact was almost always higher. This is because management was not designed to deal with such extreme events: for ex le, they exceeded the design levels of levees and reservoirs. In two success stories, the impact of the second, more hazardous, event was lower, as a result of improved risk management governance and high investment in integrated management. The observed difficulty of managing unprecedented events is alarming, given that more extreme hydrological events are projected owing to climate change 3 .
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 20-05-2011
DOI: 10.5194/HESS-15-1537-2011
Abstract: Abstract. Climate change is likely to have significant effects on the hydrology. The Ganges-Brahmaputra river basin is one of the most vulnerable areas in the world as it is subject to the combined effects of glacier melt, extreme monsoon rainfall and sea level rise. To what extent climate change will impact river flow in the Brahmaputra basin is yet unclear, as climate model studies show ambiguous results. In this study we investigate the effect of climate change on both low and high flows of the lower Brahmaputra. We apply a novel method of discharge-weighted ensemble modeling using model outputs from a global hydrological models forced with 12 different global climate models (GCMs). Our analysis shows that only a limited number of GCMs are required to reconstruct observed discharge. Based on the GCM outputs and long-term records of observed flow at Bahadurabad station, our method results in a multi-model weighted ensemble of transient stream flow for the period 1961–2100. Using the constructed transients, we subsequently project future trends in low and high river flow. The analysis shows that extreme low flow conditions are likely to occur less frequent in the future. However a very strong increase in peak flows is projected, which may, in combination with projected sea level change, have devastating effects for Bangladesh. The methods presented in this study are more widely applicable, in that existing multi-model streamflow simulations from global hydrological models can be weighted against observed streamflow data to assess at first order the effects of climate change for specific river basins.
Publisher: MDPI AG
Date: 29-04-2017
DOI: 10.3390/W9050313
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 29-06-2020
Publisher: Informa UK Limited
Date: 05-07-2020
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 07-02-2023
Abstract: Abstract. As the adverse impacts of hydrological extremes increase in many regions of the world, a better understanding of the drivers of changes in risk and impacts is essential for effective flood and drought risk management and climate adaptation. However, there is currently a lack of comprehensive, empirical data about the processes, interactions and feedbacks in complex human-water systems leading to flood and drought impacts. Here we present a benchmark dataset containing socio-hydrological data of paired events, i.e., two floods or two droughts that occurred in the same area. The 45 paired events occurred in 42 different study areas and cover a wide range of socio-economic and hydro-climatic conditions. The dataset is unique in covering both floods and droughts, in the number of cases assessed, and in the quantity of socio-hydrological data. The benchmark dataset comprises: 1) detailed review style reports about the events and key processes between the two events of a pair 2) the key data table containing variables that assess the indicators which characterise management shortcomings, hazard, exposure, vulnerability and impacts of all events 3) a table of the indicators-of-change that indicate the differences between the first and second event of a pair. The advantages of the dataset are that it enables comparative analyses across all the paired events based on the indicators-of-change and allows for detailed context- and location-specific assessments based on the extensive data and reports of the in idual study areas. The dataset can be used by the scientific community for exploratory data analyses e.g. focused on causal links between risk management, changes in hazard, exposure and vulnerability and flood or drought impacts. The data can also be used for the development, calibration and validation of socio-hydrological models. The dataset is available to the public through the GFZ Data Services (Kreibich et al. 2023, link for review: dataservices.gfz-potsdam.de anmetaworks/review/923c14519deb04f83815ce108b48dd2581d57b90ce069bec9c948361028b8c85/).
Publisher: Informa UK Limited
Date: 18-06-2020
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 29-04-2015
Publisher: Informa UK Limited
Date: 10-09-2018
Publisher: MDPI AG
Date: 10-04-2012
DOI: 10.3390/W4020345
Location: Bangladesh
Location: United States of America
Start Date: 2019
End Date: 2022
Funder: European Commission
View Funded ActivityStart Date: 2014
End Date: 2016
Funder: Leverhulme Trust
View Funded Activity