ORCID Profile
0000-0001-8401-2372
Current Organisation
Murdoch University
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Publisher: Informa UK Limited
Date: 02-01-2016
Publisher: MIT Press
Date: 11-2018
DOI: 10.1162/GLEP_A_00478
Abstract: Proponents of the environmental peacemaking approach argue that environmental cooperation has the potential to improve relations between states. This is because such cooperation facilitates common problem solving, cultivates interdependence, and helps to build trust and understanding. But as of now, very few cross-case studies on environmental peacemaking exist. Furthermore, much of the available literature understands peace in negative terms as the mere absence of acute conflict. This article addresses both shortcomings by studying the impact of international water cooperation on transitions toward more peaceful interstate relations. To do so, we combine information on positive water-related interactions between states with the peace scale, a recent data set measuring the degree of positive and negative peace between states. For the period 1956–2006, we find that a higher number of positive, water-related interactions in the previous ten years makes a shift toward more peaceful interstate relations more likely. This is particularly the case for state pairs that are not in acute conflict with each other.
Publisher: Informa UK Limited
Date: 02-01-2017
Publisher: Oxford University Press (OUP)
Date: 07-2023
Abstract: This study builds long-anticipated bridges between the literature on (i) climate/disaster security, (ii) women, peace, and security, and (iii) rebel group behavior. Specifically, I analyze how rebel groups react to disasters (like droughts, earthquakes, floods, or storms) by intensifying or reducing their armed activities. This addresses a crucial knowledge gap: While a large literature is dealing with the impacts of climate change and disasters on armed conflict onset or incidence, knowledge on how environmental factors shape the behavior of particular conflict actors remains scarce. I argue that rebel groups escalate fighting when disaster-related opportunities occur (e.g., easier recruitment) but scale back their armed activities if adversely affected by the disasters (e.g., loss of resources). However, this relationship is contingent of the rebels’ inclusion of female combatants. Empirically, this study draws on a unique s le of thirty-six cases of disasters striking armed conflict zones and integrates quantitative and qualitative data via a qualitative comparative analysis. The results suggest that rebel groups intensify their armed activities to exploit disaster-related opportunities but can only do so when female combatants provide them with sufficient capabilities. Conversely, rebels have to reduce fighting when adversely affected by disasters unless they can draw on female members to cope with disaster impacts.
Publisher: Informa UK Limited
Date: 14-08-2018
Publisher: Informa UK Limited
Date: 07-07-2016
Publisher: Oxford University Press (OUP)
Date: 23-03-2018
DOI: 10.1093/ISR/VIY014
Abstract: The literature on environmental peacemaking claims that groups in conflict can put aside their differences and cooperate in the face of shared environmental challenges, thereby facilitating more peaceful relations between them. This study provides the first comprehensive review of the widely dispersed empirical evidence on such environment-peace links. In order to do so, it distinguishes three understandings of peace and identifies four mechanisms connecting environmental cooperation to peace. The results suggest that environmental cooperation can facilitate the absence of violence within states as well as symbolic rapprochement within and between states, although such links are strongly dependent on the presence of several contextual factors. The most relevant mechanisms connecting environmental cooperation to peace are an increase in understanding and trust and especially the build-up of institutions. By contrast, environmental peacemaking is unlikely to have an impact on substantial integration between states or groups. Based on these findings, the article offers four suggestions for future research: (i) assess the relevance of environmental cooperation vis-à-vis other (presumably less context-dependent) drivers of peacemaking, (ii) pay more attention to the mechanisms connecting environmental cooperation to peacemaking, (iii) focus on the interactions between and the different time horizons of the three understandings of peace, and (iv) study the downside of environmental peacemaking to provide a more nuanced assessment and identify further relevant contextual factors.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 11-2014
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 06-2023
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 09-01-2017
DOI: 10.1002/WCC.456
Abstract: The potential links between climate change and conflict have received much attention in recent years, but there is little consensus on the issue in the relevant literature. So far, few methodological reflections exist in climate–conflict research. This is unfortunate given the tremendous innovations in methods the research field has experienced in recent years and the potential of erse methods to shed light on different aspects of the subject matter, thereby increasing our understanding of potential climate–conflict links. In order to counteract this shortcoming, this paper provides a comprehensive review of the developments and innovations in methods in climate–conflict research. It first identifies and discusses the most common methods in the research field: large‐ N statistical analysis and qualitative case study. The study goes on to evaluate four new methods that have emerged particularly since 2012: integration of statistical techniques and qualitative case studies field experiment risk analysis based on geographical information systems (GIS) and qualitative comparative analysis (QCA). The review provides an overview of these methods and their potentials and pitfalls when used to study climate–conflict links. It also discusses how future research can deal with a pluralism of methods in order to gain deeper insights into the relationship between climate change and conflict. WIREs Clim Change 2017, 8:e456. doi: 10.1002/wcc.456 This article is categorized under: Assessing Impacts of Climate Change Evaluating Future Impacts of Climate Change
Publisher: Informa UK Limited
Date: 03-04-2014
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 30-08-2018
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 20-05-2022
DOI: 10.1038/S41467-022-30356-X
Abstract: Understanding the risk of armed conflict is essential for promoting peace. Although the relationship between climate variability and armed conflict has been studied by the research community for decades with quantitative and qualitative methods at different spatial and temporal scales, causal linkages at a global scale remain poorly understood. Here we adopt a quantitative modelling framework based on machine learning to infer potential causal linkages from high-frequency time-series data and simulate the risk of armed conflict worldwide from 2000–2015. Our results reveal that the risk of armed conflict is primarily influenced by stable background contexts with complex patterns, followed by climate deviations related covariates. The inferred patterns show that positive temperature deviations or precipitation extremes are associated with increased risk of armed conflict worldwide. Our findings indicate that a better understanding of climate-conflict linkages at the global scale enhances the spatiotemporal modelling capacity for the risk of armed conflict.
Publisher: Informa UK Limited
Date: 02-01-2023
Publisher: SAGE Publications
Date: 16-06-2022
DOI: 10.1177/00471178221105576
Abstract: The war on terror as a discourse assumes that terrorism is an essential threat of global proportions, is mostly perpetuated by Islamist networks, and requires a strong international response. This discourse had tremendous impacts on both domestic and international politics. Consequentially, a large number of studies analyse the assumptions underlying and the policies legitimised by the war on terror discourse. However, existing work mostly focusses on one or a few cases, predominantly in the global north. This article introduces a novel dataset containing information on the war on terror discourse in the school textbooks of 36 countries, representing around 64% of the world’s population, for the period 2003–2014. Based on this dataset, I present the first comprehensive analysis of the global diffusion of the war on terror discourse. The study finds that the discourse has by no means globalised but is mostly limited to wealthy countries in Europe and North America. There are hence clear limits to the USA’s soft power and the hyper-globalisation of terrorism discourses. Factors like terrorism intensity, armed conflict and authoritarian regime have little predictive power. This is despite clear incentives for challenged (authoritarian) regimes to adapt the war on terror discourse. Contrary to common assumptions in critical security and terrorism studies, the war on terror discourse is hardly associated with an emphasis on terrorists’ irrationality and hatred or with the marginalisation of socio-political grievances.
Publisher: Berghahn Books
Date: 09-2018
DOI: 10.3167/JEMMS.2018.100204
Abstract: This article analyzes the geopolitical imaginations promoted via environmental education in the school textbooks of five states in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. In doing so, it builds bridges between critical studies of education and political ecology. It shows that, when addressing environmental problems, the textbooks examined depoliticize environmental problems and sustain political and economic power structures. They do so by in idualizing responsibility for environmental problems, legitimizing political and economic elites, associating environmental protection with wider societal goals, and externalizing environmental problems.
Publisher: MDPI AG
Date: 14-06-2023
Abstract: Concerns about violence against nurses and other medical personnel have increased during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, as of yet, limited systematic knowledge of such violence is available. Addressing this gap, we analyse the geographical distribution of, motivations behind, and contexts of collective attacks against health workers in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. To do so, we systematically recorded and coded attack events worldwide from 1 March 2020 to 31 December 2021. We identify high-risk countries, attack characteristics, and the socio-economic contexts in which attacks tend to occur. Our results show that opposition against public health measures (28.5%), fears of infection (22.3%), and supposed lack of care (20.6%) were the most common reasons for attacks. Most attacks occurred in facilities (often related to a supposed lack of care) or while health workers were on duty in a public place (often due to opposition to public health measures). However, 17.9% of all attacks took place in off-duty settings. Democratic countries with high vaccination rates and strong health systems were relatively safe for nurses and doctors. Distrust in the skills of health workers and the science underlying health interventions is a major driver of collective attack risks and should be addressed before it turns violent. This study was not registered.
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 06-09-2018
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 11-2016
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 30-05-2018
Publisher: Informa UK Limited
Date: 25-07-2014
Publisher: Routledge
Date: 06-08-2018
Publisher: SAGE Publications
Date: 02-07-2020
Abstract: As hydro-meteorological hazards are predicted to become more frequent and intense in the future, scholars and policymakers are increasingly concerned about their security implications, especially in the context of ongoing climate change. Our study contributes to this debate by analysing the pathways to water-related conflict onset under drought conditions in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region between 1996 and 2009. It is also the first such analysis that focuses on small-scale conflicts involving little or no physical violence, such as protests or demonstrations. These nonviolent conflicts are politically relevant, yet understudied in the literature on climate change and conflict, environmental security, and political instability. We employ the method of qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) to integrate quantitative and qualitative data at various scales (national, regional, local) for a s le of 34 cases (17 of which experienced conflict onset). Our findings show that pre-existing cleavages and either autocratic political systems or cuts of the public water supply are relevant predictors of nonviolent, water-related conflict onset during droughts. Grievances deeply embedded into socio-economic structures in combination with a triggering event like a drought or water cuts are hence driving such water-related conflicts, especially in the absence of proper political institutions. We thus argue that drought–conflict links are highly context-dependent even for nonviolent, local conflicts, hence challenging determinist narratives that claim direct interlinkages between climate change, hydro-meteorological disasters and conflict.
Publisher: Routledge
Date: 17-04-2018
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 07-2015
Publisher: Cogitatio
Date: 22-10-2021
Abstract: The literature on the security implications of climate change, and in particular on potential climate-conflict linkages, is burgeoning. Up until now, gender considerations have only played a marginal role in this research area. This is despite growing awareness of intersections between protecting women’s rights, building peace and security, and addressing environmental changes. This article advances the claim that adopting a gender perspective is integral for understanding the conflict implications of climate change. We substantiate this claim via three main points. First, gender is an essential, yet insufficiently considered intervening variable between climate change and conflict. Gender roles and identities as well as gendered power structures are important in facilitating or preventing climate-related conflicts. Second, climate change does affect armed conflicts and social unrest, but a gender perspective alters and expands the notion of what conflict can look like, and whose security is at stake. Such a perspective supports research inquiries that are grounded in everyday risks and that document alternative experiences of insecurity. Third, gender-differentiated vulnerabilities to both climate change and conflict stem from inequities within local power structures and socio-cultural norms and practices, including those related to social reproductive labor. Recognition of these power dynamics is key to understanding and promoting resilience to conflict and climate change. The overall lessons drawn for these three arguments is that gender concerns need to move center stage in future research and policy on climate change and conflicts.
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 07-04-2016
DOI: 10.1002/WAT2.1151
Abstract: Adequate fresh water availability is an important factor for human security in many parts of the world. In transboundary river basins, decreased water supply due to local environmental change and global climate change and increased water demand due to growing populations and continued economic development can aggravate water scarcity. Contrary to the claim that water scarcity may result in an increased risk of armed conflict, there is no simple relationship between freshwater availability and violent conflict. Other crucial factors need to be taken into consideration that also directly influence resource availability and personal human well‐being. In this review, we assess the scientific literature on conflict and cooperation in transboundary river systems. Most international river basins are already jointly managed by the riparians, but successful management in times of climate change necessitates the inclusion of more factors besides mere allocation schemes. On the basis of a substantial body of literature on the management of transboundary watersheds, an analytical framework of the water‐security nexus is developed that integrates the physical and socioeconomic pathways connecting water availability with conflict or cooperation. This framework is subsequently applied to two transboundary river basins—the Nile River and the Syr Darya/Amu Darya—as they represent two world regions that could become future water hot spots. An improved understanding of the developments leading to water conflicts and their interaction can help to successfully reduce the risk of water conflicts in these regions and to move toward increased cooperation among the riparians of transboundary river systems. WIREs Water 2016, 3:495–515. doi: 10.1002/wat2.1151 This article is categorized under: Engineering Water Planning Water Science of Water Water and Environmental Change Human Water Water Governance
Publisher: IOP Publishing
Date: 10-2020
Abstract: Knowledge on the determinants of more or less ambitious climate policies on the country level is still limited, especially with regards to the 2015 Paris Agreement to mitigate global climate change. This is a significant knowledge gap, especially given the review of many contributions to the Paris Agreement due in 2021. I analyse why some countries make insufficient pledges to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions under the Paris Agreement, while other countries pursue more ambitious climate change mitigation goals. Using qualitative comparative analysis (QCA), the study finds that economic recession, dependence on fossil fuels for energy generation, and levels of development are strong predictors of insufficient climate policies. These results are worrisome in the context of the economic recession triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic as well as the continued predominance of fossil fuels in the world’s energy mix.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 08-2023
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 11-2017
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 12-02-2018
Publisher: Informa UK Limited
Date: 02-01-2023
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 13-10-2015
Abstract: Abstract. The existing literature faces difficulties when accounting for the simultaneity of socio-environmental conflict and cooperation. We suggest that this puzzle can be solved by more recent constructivist works, which argue that conflictive or cooperative behavior is driven by discursively constructed interests, identities and situation assessments. Based on a literature review and field interviews, we analyze and compare the dominant water discourses in Israel and Palestine with the discourse dominant among the activists of a water cooperation project between communities from Israel and the West Bank. Our main result is that discourses are indeed crucial for understanding water-related conflict and cooperation. This finding highlights the relevance of constructivist approaches in the study of socio-environmental conflict and cooperation as well as of practices of bottom-up discursive conflict transformation.
Publisher: Oxford University Press (OUP)
Date: 03-2022
DOI: 10.1093/ISR/VIAC008
Abstract: Qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) is a rapidly emerging method in the field of International Relations (IR). This raises questions about the strengths and pitfalls of QCA in IR research, established good practices, how IR performs against those standards, and which areas require further attention. After a general introduction to the method, we address these questions based on a review of all empirical QCA studies published in IR journals between 1987 and 2020. Results show that QCA has been employed on a wide range of issue areas and is most common in the study of peace and conflict, global environmental politics, foreign policy, and compliance with international regulations. The utilization of QCA offers IR scholars four distinct advantages: the identification of complex causal patterns, the distinction between necessary and sufficient conditions, a middle ground between quantitative and qualitative approaches, and the reinforcement of the strengths of other methods. We find that albeit a few exceptions, IR researchers conduct high-quality QCA research when compared against established standards. However, the field should urgently pay more attention to three issues: the potential of using QCA in combination with other methods, increasing the robustness of QCA results, and strengthening research transparency in QCA applications. Throughout the article, we formulate strategies for improved QCA research in IR.
Publisher: SAGE Publications
Date: 22-12-2020
Abstract: Disasters triggered by natural hazards will increase in the future due to climate change, population growth, and more valuable assets located in vulnerable areas. The impacts of disasters on political conflict have been the subject of broad academic and public debates. Existing research has paid little attention to the links between climate change, disasters, and small-scale conflicts, such as protests or riots. Floods are particularly relevant in this context as they are the most frequent and most costly contemporary disasters. However, they remain understudied compared to other disasters, specifically, droughts and storms. We address these gaps by focusing on flood-related political unrest between 2015 and 2018 in Africa, Asia, and the Middle East. Drawing on data from the Dartmouth Flood Observatory (DFO) and Armed Conflict Location and Event Dataset (ACLED), we find that flood-related political unrest occurs within two months after 24% of the 92 large flooding events recorded in our s le. Subsequently, a qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) shows that the simultaneous presence of a large population, a democratic regime, and either the exclusion of ethnic groups from political power or a heavy impact of the flood is an important scope condition for the onset of flood-related political unrest. This indicates that disaster–conflict links are by no means deterministic. Rather, they are contingent on complex interactions between multiple contextual factors.
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Date: 12-2015
Publisher: Informa UK Limited
Date: 28-03-2017
Publisher: SAGE Publications
Date: 05-02-2018
Abstract: The literature on environmental peacemaking argues that cooperation in the face of shared environmental challenges can facilitate further cooperation, trust building, and eventually peace between states in conflict. Empirical research on environmental peacemaking, predominantly conducted in the form of single case studies, has so far been inconclusive. This article uses a cross-case, multimethod research design to test the environmental peacemaking proposition. More specifically, it argues that the conclusion of a cooperative environmental agreement can have a positive impact on reconciliation between rival states. Based on a new dataset on international rivalry termination, transboundary protected areas, and international freshwater agreements, this article first conducts a statistical analysis and a qualitative comparative analysis (QCA). The results are then verified and refined by six case studies. Triangulation of findings from the three studies suggests that the conclusion of a cooperative environmental agreement facilitates reconciliation in international rivalries. But this effect is contingent on a number of scope conditions, such as high environmental attention, internal political stability, wider patterns or traditions of environmental cooperation, and already ongoing processes of reconciliation. Still, the findings imply that environmental challenges do not only affect peace and security in a negative way. Addressing them jointly also opens opportunities for peacemaking and peacebuilding between states.
Publisher: Informa UK Limited
Date: 26-06-2019
No related grants have been discovered for Tobias Ide.