ORCID Profile
0000-0001-7179-4678
Current Organisations
Murdoch University
,
Western Australia Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development
,
CSIRO
,
University of Cambridge
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Publications
A multi-model analysis of post-Glasgow climate action and feasibility gap
Publisher: Research Square Platform LLC
Date: 06-12-2022
DOI: 10.21203/RS.3.RS-2319580/V1
Abstract: The COP26 Glasgow process resulted in many countries strengthening their 2030 emissions reduction targets and announcing net-zero pledges for 2050–2070. We use four erse integrated assessment models (IAMs) to assess CO 2 emission trajectories in the near- and long-term based on national policies and pledges, combined with a non-CO 2 infilling model and a simple climate model to assess the temperature implications of such trajectories. Critically, we also consider the feasibility of national long-term pledges towards net-zero, to understand where the challenges to achieving them could lie. Whilst near-term pledges alone lead to warming above 2°C, the addition of long-term pledges leads to emissions trajectories compatible with a well-below 2°C future, across all four IAMs. However, whilst IAM heterogeneity translates to erse decarbonisation pathways towards long-term targets, all modelled pathways indicate several feasibility concerns, relating to the cost of mitigation, as well as to rates and scales of deployed technologies and measures.
A multimodel analysis of post-Glasgow climate targets and feasibility challenges
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 18-05-2023
Institutional “Paris Agreement Compatible” Mitigation Scenarios Evaluated Against the Paris Agreement 1.5°C Goal
Publisher: Research Square Platform LLC
Date: 21-06-2021
DOI: 10.21203/RS.3.RS-599934/V1
Abstract: Scientifically rigorous guidance to policy makers on mitigation options for meeting the Paris Agreement long-term temperature goal requires an evaluation of long-term global-warming implications of greenhouse gas emissions pathways. Here we employ a uniform and transparent methodology to evaluate Paris Agreement compatibility of influential “institutional” emission scenarios from the grey literature. We compare a selection of these scenarios analyzed with this methodology to the Integrated Assessment Model scenarios assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. We harmonize emissions to a consistent base-year and account for all greenhouse gases and aerosol precursor emissions, ensuring a self-consistent comparison of climate variables. An evaluation of peak and end-of-century temperatures is made, with both being relevant to the Paris Agreement goal. We find that few published scenarios that claim to be compatible with the Paris Agreement are so, and investigate root causes based on the underlying energy system transformation.
Increasing wheat proteins sustainably by rotation with forage legumes
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 16-08-2023
Assessing the size and uncertainty of remaining carbon budgets
Publisher: Research Square Platform LLC
Date: 02-09-2022
DOI: 10.21203/RS.3.RS-1934427/V1
Abstract: The remaining carbon budget (RCB), the net amount of carbon dioxide humans can still emit without exceeding a chosen global warming limit, is often used to evaluate political action against the goals of the Paris Agreement. RCB estimates for 1.5C are small, and minor changes in their calculation can therefore result in large relative shifts. Here we evaluate recent RCB assessments by the IPCC and explain differences between them. We present calculation refinements together with robustness checks that increase confidence in RCB estimates. We conclude that the RCB for a 50% chance of keeping warming to 1.5C is around 300 GtCO2 as of January 2022, less than 8 years of current emissions. This estimate changes to 530 and 110 GtCO2 for a 33% and 66% chance, respectively. Key uncertainties affecting RCB estimates are the contribution of non-CO2 emissions, which depends on socioeconomic projections as much as on geophysical uncertainty, and the potential warming after net zero is reached.
Assessing the size and uncertainty of remaining carbon budgets
Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
Date: 15-05-2023
DOI: 10.5194/EGUSPHERE-EGU23-7143
Abstract: The remaining carbon budget (RCB), the net amount of carbon dioxide humans can still emit without exceeding a chosen global warming limit, is often used to evaluate political action against the goals of the Paris Agreement. RCB estimates for 1.5C are small, and minor changes in their calculation can therefore result in large relative shifts. Here we evaluate recent RCB assessments by the IPCC and explain differences between them. We present calculation refinements together with robustness checks that increase confidence in RCB estimates. We conclude that the RCB for a 50% chance of keeping warming to 1.5C is around 250 GtCO2 as of January 2023, around 6 years of current CO2 emissions. This estimate changes to 480 and 60 GtCO2 for a 33% and 66% chance, respectively. Key uncertainties affecting RCB estimates are the contribution of non-CO2 emissions, which depends on socioeconomic projections as much as on geophysical uncertainty, and potential warming after net zero is reached.&
“Summer sowing”: A successful innovation to increase the adoption of key species of annual forage legumes for agriculture in Mediterranean and temperate environments
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 03-2021
DOI: 10.1111/GFS.12516
Hard seed breakdown patterns of unprocessed forage legume seed sown into dry soil in summer in southern Australia
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 03-2021
DOI: 10.1111/GFS.12526
Breaking hard seed dormancy in the perennial legume Lebeckia ambigua E. Mey. to enhance sustainable agricultural production
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 16-06-2021
Sourcing Rhizobium leguminosarum biovar viciae strains from Mediterranean centres of origin to optimize nitrogen fixation in forage legumes grown on acid soils
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 03-2021
DOI: 10.1111/GFS.12524
Optimizing the growth of forage and grain legumes on low pH soils through the application of superior Rhizobium leguminosarum biovar viciae strains
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 03-2021
DOI: 10.1111/GFS.12523
The breeding system of Ornithopus sativus Brot. subsp. sativus
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 03-2021
DOI: 10.1111/GFS.12521
Institutional decarbonization scenarios evaluated against the Paris Agreement 1.5 °C goal
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 16-08-2022
DOI: 10.1038/S41467-022-31734-1
Abstract: Scientifically rigorous guidance to policy makers on mitigation options for meeting the Paris Agreement long-term temperature goal requires an evaluation of long-term global-warming implications of greenhouse gas emissions pathways. Here we employ a uniform and transparent methodology to evaluate Paris Agreement compatibility of influential institutional emission scenarios from the grey literature, including those from Shell, BP, and the International Energy Agency. We compare a selection of these scenarios analysed with this methodology to the Integrated Assessment Model scenarios assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. We harmonize emissions to a consistent base-year and account for all greenhouse gases and aerosol precursor emissions, ensuring a self-consistent comparison of climate variables. An evaluation of peak and end-of-century temperatures is made, with both being relevant to the Paris Agreement goal. Of the scenarios assessed, we find that only the IEA Net Zero 2050 scenario is aligned with the criteria for Paris Agreement consistency employed here. We investigate root causes for misalignment with these criteria based on the underlying energy system transformation.
Photon Reabsorption in Mixed CsPbCl3:CsPbI3 Perovskite Nanocrystal Films for Light-Emitting Diodes
Publisher: American Chemical Society (ACS)
Date: 09-02-2017
The South African perennial legume Lebeckia ambigua sustainably supports livestock production on infertile soils in rain-fed agro-ecosystems
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 28-10-2021
Cereal and oil seed crops response to organic nitrogen when grown in rotation with annual aerial-seeded pasture legumes
Publisher: Cambridge University Press (CUP)
Date: 06-2022
DOI: 10.1017/S0021859622000326
Abstract: Nitrogen fixation from pasture legumes is a fundamental process that contributes to the profitability and sustainability of dryland agricultural systems. The aim of this research was to determine whether well-managed pastures, based on aerial-seeding pasture legumes, could partially or wholly meet the nitrogen (N) requirements of subsequent grain crops in an annual rotation. Fifteen experiments were conducted in Western Australia with wheat, barley or canola crops grown in a rotation that included the pasture legume species French serradella ( Ornithopus sativus ), biserrula ( Biserrula pelecinus ), bladder clover ( Trifolium spumosum ), annual medics ( Medicago spp.) and the non-aerial seeded subterranean clover (Trifolium subterraneum ). After the pasture phase, five rates of inorganic N fertilizer (Urea, applied at 0, 23, 46, 69 and 92 kg/ha) were applied to subsequent cereal and oil seed crops. The yields of wheat grown after serradella, biserrula and bladder clover, without the use of applied N fertilizer, were consistent with the target yields for growing conditions of the trials (2.3 to 5.4 t/ha). Crop yields after phases of these pasture legume species were similar or higher than those following subterranean clover or annual medics. The results of this study suggest a single season of a legume-dominant pasture may provide sufficient organic N in the soil to grow at least one crop, without the need for inorganic N fertilizer application. This has implications for reducing inorganic N requirements and the carbon footprint of cropping in dryland agricultural systems.
Sheep grazing
Publisher: CSIRO Publishing
Date: 05-01-2023
DOI: 10.1071/AN22287
Abstract: Context An accession of the annual legume Trigonella balansae Boiss. & Reuter. has been selected for commercial release in Australia. Aims As part of a duty-of-care assessment, we tested the hypothesis that sheep grazing the trigonella accession will have liveweight, condition scores and wool production similar to those of sheep grazing two widely adopted annual legumes, subterranean clover (subclover, Trifolium subterraneum L. cv. Dalkeith) and French serradella (Ornithopus sativus Brot. cv. Erica). We also hypothesised that sheep grazing the three legumes will have similar meat quality and health, as indicated by blood plasma panel analysis. Methods Wethers (n = 6) grazed plots (n = 4) of three pasture species. Liveweight, condition scores and wool growth were measured, and a subset of animals were subject to blood s ling to assess health. Consumer sensory taste analysis was used to assess meat eating quality from two sheep per plot. Forage biomass, dry-matter digestibility, crude protein, fibre, mineral content and isoflavones were measured across the plant’s lifecycle. Key results There were no significant differences in liveweight, wool growth, wool yield or condition score that were associated with pasture species during the grazing period. There were differences in dry-matter digestibility, minerals and crude protein content of the pastures over time. As trigonella matured, it did not meet the minimum sulfur, phosphorus, manganese, molybdenum and copper requirements for mature sheep. We found some differences in indications of animal health however, there were no significant systematic detrimental differences between sheep grazing trigonella and the other two species. In total, 2 of 24 in idual sheep grazing trigonella had more than two plasma indicators of liver damage. There were no differences in meat tenderness, juiciness, flavour and overall consumer acceptability. Conclusions The data supported the hypotheses. Under the conditions of this experiment, the pasture legumes had the same relative feeding value. Some care must be taken in interpreting the outcome as the trigonellacomprised only 18% of the dry matter on offer at the termination of grazing. Implications Results of this study will be considered during the commercialisation process for T. balansae.
The Climate Response to Emissions Reductions Due to COVID‐19: Initial Results From CovidMIP
Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Date: 28-04-2021
DOI: 10.1029/2020GL091883
Abstract: Many nations responded to the corona virus disease‐2019 (COVID‐19) pandemic by restricting travel and other activities during 2020, resulting in temporarily reduced emissions of CO 2 , other greenhouse gases and ozone and aerosol precursors. We present the initial results from a coordinated Intercomparison, CovidMIP, of Earth system model simulations which assess the impact on climate of these emissions reductions. 12 models performed multiple initial‐condition ensembles to produce over 300 simulations spanning both initial condition and model structural uncertainty. We find model consensus on reduced aerosol amounts (particularly over southern and eastern Asia) and associated increases in surface shortwave radiation levels. However, any impact on near‐surface temperature or rainfall during 2020–2024 is extremely small and is not detectable in this initial analysis. Regional analyses on a finer scale, and closer attention to extremes (especially linked to changes in atmospheric composition and air quality) are required to test the impact of COVID‐19‐related emission reductions on near‐term climate.
Assessing the size and uncertainty of remaining carbon budgets
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 30-10-2023
Adjusting 1.5 degree C climate change mitigation pathways in light of adverse new information
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Date: 23-08-2023
DOI: 10.1038/S41467-023-40673-4
Abstract: Understanding how 1.5 °C pathways could adjust in light of new adverse information, such as a reduced 1.5 °C carbon budget, or slower-than-expected low-carbon technology deployment, is critical for planning resilient pathways. We use an integrated assessment model to explore potential pathway adjustments starting in 2025 and 2030, following the arrival of new information. The 1.5 °C target remains achievable in the model, in light of some adverse information, provided a broad portfolio of technologies and measures is still available. If multiple pieces of adverse information arrive simultaneously, average annual emissions reductions near 3 GtCO 2 /yr for the first five years following the pathway adjustment, compared to 2 GtCO 2 /yr in 2020 when the Covid-19 pandemic began. Moreover, in these scenarios of multiple simultaneous adverse information, by 2050 mitigation costs are 4-5 times as high as a no adverse information scenario, highlighting the criticality of developing a wide range of mitigation options, including energy demand reduction options.
Long‐term storage of forage legumes greatly alters the hard seed breakdown pattern in situ
Publisher: Wiley
Date: 28-06-2020
DOI: 10.1111/GFS.12490
Related Organisations
Commonwealth Scientific And Industrial Research Organisation
Location: Australia
Western Australia Department Of Primary Industries And Regional Development
Location: Australia
University Of Cambridge
Location: United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland
Related Funding Activities
No related grants have been discovered for Robert Harrison.